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We’re just about a week away from the opening slate of baseball games that count, and with lots of drafts happening this weekend, it’s time once again to shuffle up and deal out my Top 150 hitters for the 2023 season.
As always, let’s get some basics out of the way in terms of how to interpret these rankings. None of this stuff should come as any major surprise, but it never hurts to provide background:
- As a reminder, these rankings are geared toward a standard, daily, 12-team H2H redraft league, as that is typically the most popular fantasy baseball format. They will only factor in the five standard categories: Runs, RBI, Home Runs, Batting Average, and Stolen Bases.
- I would recommend not paying super close attention to the specific ranks of each player, and honing in more on the respective tiers that they’re in. Each tier represents a grouping of players that I think could arguably perform at a similar level, and/or carry similar levels of risk in terms of injury concerns or playing time obstacles. If Player X is ranked at #55 and Player Y is ranked at #65, but they’re in the same tier, it means that I personally like Player X a lot better, but think there’s a valid argument to be made for Player Y performing just as well.
- I take rankings like this as more of an art than a science. Every person’s rankings are influenced by their own biases, strategic philosophies, determinations of risk, and projections. It’s why no two rankings are ever exactly alike. Jon’s way of evaluating and ranking players has worked out well for Jon (and me) over the years, but it might not be a great fit for you. I can’t possibly predict your team’s specific needs, your league mate’s player evaluations, or your current waiver wire, and if I could it’d be weird. In a bad way.
- Yes, these ranks vary from the official PL positional rankings that I also developed in the off-season. That’s because these are only mine – no input from others. This is a safe space for me where I answer to no one but myself…and you if you leave a comment.
- I’m doing my best to use 5 starts or 10 appearances as the threshold for positional eligibility. I have not included presumed eligibilities based on likely new positions, but once those eligibilities are earned I’ll add them in. This is just a maintenance thing and we will update eligibility throughout the season. Feel free to let me know if I’m missing any!
And now a couple of notes on how I generally evaluate hitters before we dive in:
- I’ve gotten more level-headed over the years regarding weighing stolen bases, but I still think they’re precious given how rare they’re becoming. Every steal is important, so don’t take those “chip-in” steals for granted. Finding steals at the end of the season can be a dogfight.
- If I did want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart. Our PL Pro members can use the tools in the Hub, which I’ll also reference as appropriate.
- No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), lineup context, and the skills we can measure using the tools in our PL Pro Tools Hub. I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators. Unlike Nick, I’ll also look at other rankings as I prepare my own to feel how my colleagues value certain players, positions, or stats. I recommend trying as many of these things as you can until you find what you like.
- Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
- On a similar note, I don’t penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
- Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 at-bats regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.
- If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!
Ranking Notes
Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring myself and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!
About Spring Training: I wrote a piece on what I was looking for this Spring for all 30 teams, but in general, Spring Training stats are only useful in very specific contexts. I care more about approach and plate discipline than I do actual results.
About the Change column: That change is compared to the “Too Early” rankings I did several months ago. I kept it as an interesting item, but don’t read too deeply into them.
TIER 1
- This first tier is a LOT larger than I had it during the 2022 season, but that’s because the top-tier talent in the league continues to grow. José Ramírez remains my top pick in snake drafts because of how third base shakes out, and I could see any of these six guys being taken as a top-three pick.
- Having Kyle Tucker over Julio Rodríguez may be controversial as Julio’s ceiling is higher, but Tucker’s dependability and back-to-back 30 home run seasons put him ahead for me by the slightest of margins. This also confirms that I’m not at all concerned about the mild ankle sprain Tucker suffered in camp recently.
TIER 2
- The 14 players in Tier 2 might seem like a mistake, but if you’ve been in any mocks or drafts where you pick in the back half of the first round, then you’ll have felt this depth in person.
- In formats where Mookie Betts doesn’t have second base eligibility, he’d remain in this tier but might drop somewhere closer to the middle.
- Mike Trout’s health is always a factor, though it’s not so much a specific concern as it is a general one. For those who play in formats where you need five outfielders (which is becoming more and more uncommon), you might consider bumping Trout up a few spots.
TIER 3
- NFBC players and others in deeper formats will care a lot more about Bobby Witt Jr.’s stolen base upside than 12-team players, though being eligible at both third and shortstop is quite handy with an early pick.
- Michael Harris II isn’t going to be batting eighth or ninth anymore and that’s amazing news.
- If every game was on a big state, Kyle Schwarber would be a top-20 pick. I also appreciate that he’ll finally have someone batting in front of him to start a game, giving him that extra opportunity to pick up RBI. Schwarber will run hot and cold during the season, but the hot will outweigh the cold by a massive margin.
- I believe in Adolis García as a guy who will have at least 25 home runs and 20 stolen bases, and the batting average won’t hurt nearly as much as some might have you believe.
- I’m not the only one who will say it, but Corey Seager’s rebound in 2023 is less due to the shift and more just natural regression. He’s an awfully good hitter.
- If you think Jazz Chisholm Jr. can and will stay healthy, then this ranking would severely underestimate him.
TIER 4
- I love Oneil Cruz, though the uptick in strikeouts toward the end of Spring Training has me mildly concerned. It’s worth noting, though, that the plate discipline was fantastic until about a week ago. His speed and power upside are massive, and I think he will keep the strikeout rate below 30%.
- Corbin Carroll is a fantastic prospect and I think 20 home runs and 20 steals are very realistic. He should also have a relatively high floor for a rookie, though as a rookie, he will have more volatility than others in the short term.
- Speaking of volatility, Luis Robert Jr. is the riskiest player in my Top 50 and I’m not sure it’s close.
TIER 5
- Four catchers in this tier is a testament to the strength we’re starting to see at the top of the position. I’m a huge Adley Rutschman fan, though I don’t think I’d ever take him over J.T. Realmuto, Daulton Varsho, or Will Smith.
- I still struggle with how to rank Wander Franco, who may never hit 25 home runs or steal 20 bases. That said, his hit tool is incredible and it could turn into enough power and counting stats to be an elite player.
TIER 6
- Byron Buxton and Tyler O’Neill are great picks if you have room to take on the risk, but if you already have some risk in the outfield (like Luis Robert Jr.), you should probably drop them down a tier or two.
- Tommy Edman is a better pick in roto formats than head-to-head, and if you’re punting steals then you can pass him by. Many of you aren’t going to punt steals, though (and that’s a good thing).
- Vinnie Pasquantino has elite plate discipline, but don’t expect 30 home runs or anything like that. His floor is incredibly high, but his ceiling is slightly capped.
TIER 7
- Taylor Ward was originally in my Top 50 and I talked myself down. I have a bad feeling I’m going to regret this act of cowardice.
- Guys like Jake McCarthy always make me nervous. He absolutely exploded in the second half of 2022 and the underlying metrics suggest it was all very real, but real and repeatable are different things. McCarthy’s track record is very short and his 2022 success was a huge surprise.
TIER 8
- Mostly a tier of boring options and known commodities, with Nick Castellanos as the biggest unknown. His 2022 was a huge disappointment and I have yet to see something that explains why he was suddenly so bad. I like picking him when I can as an upside pick (since upside picks rarely have long track records like Castellanos), but I don’t have much besides faith to go on.
- Max Muncy has ended up on a lot of my rosters because I believe his early struggles were almost entirely injury related. The Dodgers aren’t quite the powerhouse they were in 2022, but this is still a good offense and Muncy should be a very good second baseman in all formats.
TIER 9
- A healthy Brandon Lowe would probably finish as a Top 50 player.
- Every time I’ve been in a draft, I’ve felt like Eugenio Suárez was a good pick when he went. I don’t care about his bad Spring Training stat line nearly as much as I care about his power and lineup spot. Suarez might need to be dropped a tier in roto leagues, but in head-to-head where batting average is fluky by nature, Suarez’s power is a huge asset.
- Riley Greene has continued to impress in Spring, which is a continuation of how he closed his 2022 campaign. I like him for 17-20 home runs and double-digit steals, which is better than most projections.
- I’m still a Lars Nootbaar fan, but more opportunities for Jordan Walker could impact Nootbaar in a negative way. I hope it doesn’t, but there are several bats in St. Louis that could demand time in the lineup and corner outfield is one place to put them.
- Alec Bohm had a better xwOBACON than Alex Bregman in 2022. By quite a lot. Just sayin’.
TIER 10
- Amed Rosario should be up a tier or two in deeper roto leagues thanks to the steals and playing time, but his upside is pretty limited in head-to-head category formats.
- Move Brandon Nimmo up a tier if you’re short on runs scored, and maybe even two tiers if it’s an OBP league.
- Masataka Yoshida has looked good this spring, though I still wonder if he’s really that different from Brandon Nimmo.
TIER 11
- You were looking for Jordan Walker and here he is. I concede that he’s likely played himself onto the roster for Opening Day, but how much he plays over the full season is still a question mark, and being a rookie with somewhat limited experience in the high minors makes him a high-variance player. I can’t advocate for him as your primary third baseman due to the nature of the position, but as a utility or corner infield player he’s well worth the gamble based on talent.
- Brandon Drury will likely be viewed more in the light of what he won’t do (repeat his 28 home runs from 2022) than what he can do (hit 22 home runs with decent counting stats and play all three bases), which makes him prone to falling too far in drafts.
- Luis Arraez and Jeff McNeil are batting title contenders who can score runs but who won’t do a whole lot else. There are builds where that’s exactly what you need and others where it’s useless.
TIER 12
- Ke’Bryan Hayes is growing on me. The seven home runs from 2022 shows the low floor, but he’s shown the talent to hit double-digit home runs to go with the 20 steals he’s already shown. The batting average should be better than .244 as well.
- Josh Jung has starting third baseman upside, which is not easy to find at this point in the rankings. He has prospect pedigree and major power, though he showed contact issues in 2022. He lost most of 2021 to injury, so if health was the issue, Jung could be a huge bargain.
- I want to believe in Javier Báez, but I don’t.
- Triston Casas has 25 home run power and could have an awesome OBP, though I wonder how the average will look.
- If Yandy Díaz hits more than three home runs in April, he’ll be in my top 100. Why? Because it will prove to me that he hasn’t entirely turned into a beefier version of Arraez and McNeil. Yandy rarely barrels the ball or puts it in the air, and in 2022 he also didn’t pull it very often. Hard to get to double-digit home runs with that profile, though points league players should move him up the rankings due to his ability to walk and put the ball in play.
- Tyler Stephenson has the most upside of any catcher outside of the top five at the position, though health has been a big issue. In single-catcher formats, he’s well worth reaching for as the replacement level is higher than it has been in the past and a decent catcher should still be out there if he goes down.
TIER 13
- Luis Urías isn’t exciting, I suppose, but 20 home runs and a decent spot in the lineup to go along with eligibility at three positions is a nice little combo as one of your last hitters.
- Jake Fraley has never been able to stay on the field, but if he did, he could be a 15 home run, 15 stolen base asset with a very welcoming home ballpark in Cincinnati. I like taking a flyer on him as a fourth or fifth outfielder.
- Classic change of scenery for Cody Bellinger. He can still hit home runs and steal bases and I don’t mind seeing what he can do in a uniform featuring a slightly different shade of blue for a few weeks.
TIER 14
- Bryce Harper finished as a Top 70 hitter in 2022 in 99 games (426 plate appearances), which is cool, but it’s worth noting that zero players snuck into the Top 100 hitters with fewer than 400 plate appearances and only one hitter made it into the top 150 with fewer than 350 plate appearances.
- Once upon a time, going to Colorado meant instant fantasy relevance, yet Jurickson Profar still finds himself on the outside looking in on most rosters. Profar spent a lot of time atop a much better Padres lineup in 2022 with very little to show for it, and while I expect he’ll be quite useful while at home, I’m not sure he’ll be worth holding onto during the road trips.
- CJ Abrams had some hype as a prospect, and could still steal 20 or more bases in 2023. Playing for the Nationals and having limited power is problematic, though.
- I really don’t buy Oscar Gonzalez as a guy who can keep the starting gig all season long, but if he does, it’d come with some power.
- Jarred Kelenic has been hot this spring, but we’ve seen that shine wear off in a hurry when the games start to count. Spencer Torkelson has also hit the ball really well, but again, the major league track record was not encouraging. I like using my last pick on one of these guys, though.
- Garrett Mitchell’s power and speed upside is worth monitoring, but his inability to hit for average might force him into a platoon gig rather quickly.
- Oscar Colas has contact issues and that scares me a lot, but if you need late power, this is about as good as it gets.
- Rhys Hoskins was ranked much higher before being carted off the field on Thursday, but that fall looked really bad. Hoping for a speedy recovery.
And now, once again, it’s time for the Hitter List:
And here’s the Taxi Squad, presented in no particular order:
Taxi Squad
| Hitter | Position | Team | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rendon | 3B | LAA | Not sure how much is left in the tank, as he hasn’t played well even when healthy, but the track record is there. |
| Edward Olivares | OF | KCR | Double-digit power and speed with a plus batting average is doable, but the Royals haven’t exactly seemed interested. |
| Bryson Stott | 2B/SS | PHI | Up-and-down rookie season, but could be useful in deeper leagues. |
| Whit Merrifield | 2B/OF | TOR | Hit better as a Blue Jay, but the steals weren’t there. No real upside unless he starts running. |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | NYY | He’ll be very exciting when he debuts, but no idea when that will be. |
| Shea Langeliers | DH | OAK | He’ll have catcher eligibility within two weeks. A poor man’s Cal Raleigh. |
| Danny Jansen | C | TOR | Others seem to buy strong 2022 a lot more than me. |
| Kolten Wong | 2B | SEA | Low counting stats, but the home runs and steals should be in the double digits if you need them. |
| Travis d’Arnaud | C | ATL | The quintessential streaming catcher. Could be better than that if Ozuna still stinks. |
| James Outman | OF | LAD | Made the roster, but how much he plays will depend on the strikeouts. |
| Ryan McMahon | 2B/3B | COL | Just a guy who will kill you on the road. He’d be ranked in the last tier for roto. |
| Harrison Bader | OF | NYY | Oblique injuries are scary for a guy who already struggles to stay on the field. |
| Trent Grisham | OF | SDP | Now that no one is saying this is the year, does it mean this is actually the year? |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | HOU | Get well soon, sweet prince. |
| Patrick Wisdom | 1B/3B | CHC | Basically a lock for 25 home runs, just try not to pay attention to the ratios. |
| Christopher Morel | 2B/3B/OF | CHC | Heating up late in the spring, but the plate discipline might be as bad as Wisdom’s. |
| Josh Rojas | 2B/3B | ARZ | I just don’t think the Diamondbacks plan on keeping him around all season. |
| Vaughn Grissom | 2B | ATL | Surprised he didn’t win the shortstop gig, but he’ll be back eventually. |
| Justin Turner | 3B | BOS | I expect a repeat of 2022, which is fine I guess. |
| Lane Thomas | OF | WAS | What we saw last season (17 HR, 8 SB, .241 AVG) is probably what he is, which doesn’t need to be drafted in 12-team leagues. |
| Trevor Story | 2B | BOS | He’ll be ranked between 50 and 75 when he’s back on the field. |
| Trayce Thompson | OF | LAD | Legit 25-30 home run power if he played a full season, but contact issues make that hard to imagine. |
| Jose Siri | OF | TBR | 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases are very possible if he stays healthy and hits better than .220, which won’t be easy for him. |
| Brandon Belt | 1B | TOR | Worth streaming from time to time, and who knows, maybe he ends up staying on your roster at some point. |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | WAS | Contact skills are real. |
| Akil Baddoo | OF | DET | This is my list and I can do with it what I want. |
| Yoán Moncada | 3B | CWS | Between the injuries and poor performance, I can’t imagine drafting him outside of draft-and-hold formats. |
| Austin Hays | OF | BAL | The new dimensions killed his fantasy output, though he’ll accumulate decent counting stats for deep leaguers. |
| Adalberto Mondesi | SS | BOS | So explosive that he routinely explodes. |
| Jon Berti | 2B/3B/SS/OF | MIA | He’ll be worth streaming for steals on occasion but otherwise should be on the wire. |
| Nick Gordon | 2B/OF | MIN | He’ll get playing time while Polanco is on the IL. |
| Alek Thomas | OF | ARZ | There’s still upside here, but it’s a crowded roster. |
| DJ LeMahieu | 1B/2B/3B | NYY | If he plays and leads off as much as some think he could, he’ll be on the list in a hurry. |
| Michael Massey | 2B | KCR | Home park and team caps his upside a bit, but 15-17 home runs and 8-10 steals while batting .250 isn’t out of the question. |
| Charlie Blackmon | OF | COL | Stream against righties on the road. |
| Manuel Margot | OF | TBR | Power and speed are present, but injuries are a regular occurrence. |
| Jorge Soler | OF | MIA | Power-only bat on a bad team. |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | STL | Could hit 30 home runs if the Cardinals didn’t have such a crowded roster. |
| Trey Mancini | 1B/OF | CHC | Easy to root for, but hard to see the playing time. |
| Jorge Mateo | SS | BAL | 13 home runs and 35 steals in 2022, but the contact issues caught up to him in a big way. |
| Eric Hosmer | 1B | CHC | The batting average should be good, and will likely hit in the middle of the order when he plays. |
| Jared Walsh | 1B | LAA | Thoracic outlet syndrome is tricky, but he could hit 25 home runs if he can get it behind him. |
| Juan Yepez | 1B/OF | STL | Playing time is tough to come by in St. Louis, but his power is worth monitoring. |
| Garrett Cooper | OF | MIA | He’s going to hit in the middle of the order for the Marlins and pile up some decent stats, which is quite serviceable in deeper formats and quite uninteresting in shallower ones. |
| Joey Gallo | OF | MIN | There are playing time opportunities in Minnesota, and that’s all you can ask for. |
| Rodolfo Castro | 2B/SS | PIT | Could flash power and speed in a starting role, but needs to win that role first. |
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)
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Sean Murphy is on here twice haha. Only saying it because I want to see who moves into the list with the duplicate removed, or is Sean Murphy primed for THAT big of a year?? lol
The world isn’t ready for the Double-Murphies strategy yet, so one was removed. Isaac Paredes graduated from the Taxi Squad, and Anthony Rendon took his place (as he should have been on there to begin with).
Pretty happy with this initial ranking. Cheers
Thanks! I’ve certainly felt worse about a list than this one.