October 2018 Top 150 Fantasy Prospects List

Adam Garland's top 150 overall prospects to own in dynasty leagues.

(Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

We are currently in the third week of Arizona Fall League (AFL) play where many of the game’s top prospects are playing including Toronto Blue Jays 3B prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Milwaukee Brewers 2B prospect Keston Hiura, and New York Mets 1B prospect Peter Alonso. The gap between the end of the minor league season and the beginning of the AFL season allowed me to revisit the prospect rankings from mid-season that my college Brennen Gorman and I put together. We put together a top 150 Overall list for both hitters and pitchers at mid-season, plus also covered position by position rankings that went 30 deep (50 for outfielders) and we plan to do that again in time for MLB Spring Training.

For now though, here is my top 150 overall prospects list as sort of an appetizer to hold you over until then! Like our position by position rankings, I have included a rough prime projection for each player as well as an estimated ETA. I am abiding by rookie status to determine prospect status meaning that a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors to be considered. Note that I place an emphasis on upside, namely power and speed guys like the guy pictured above, SS Royce Lewis of the Minnesota Twins organization, while also prioritizing closeness to the majors when the value is close. Feel free to ask questions or drop a comment, I’m are always happy to discuss! Without further ado, onto the list!

1.Vladimir Guerrero Jr.3BToronto Blue JaysAAA19.313/.402, 32 HRs, 3 SBsApril 2019
2.Eloy JimenezOFChicago White SoxAAA21.292/.343, 36 HRs, 3 SBsApril 2019
3.Victor RoblesOFWashington NationalsAAA/MLB21.287/.342, 19 HRs, 33 SBEarly 2019
4.Kyle TuckerOFHouston AstrosAAA21.286/.348, 27 HRs, 16 SBsEarly 2019
5.Nick Senzel3BCincinnati RedsAAA23.291/.361, 23 HRs, 14 SBsMid 2019
6.Royce LewisSSMinnesota TwinsA+19.278/.338, 18 HRs, 27 SBs2020
7.Bo BichetteSSToronto Blue JaysAA20.288/.340, 24 HRs, 11 SBsMid-Late 2019
8.Fernando Tatis Jr.SSSan Diego PadresAA19.269/.340, 27 HRs, 12 SBsLate 2019
9.Forrest WhitleySPHouston AstrosAA213.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 239 K’s in 200 inningsLate 2019
10.Brendan RodgersSSColorado RockiesAAA22.281/.327, 26 HRs, 6 SBsMid-Late 2019
11.Jo AdellOFLos Angeles AngelsAA19.268/.326. 26 HRs, 11 SBs2020
12.Taylor TrammellOFCincinnati RedsA+21.264/.337, 18 HRs, 24 SBs2020-2021
13.Jesus LuzardoSPOakland AthleticsSP203.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 212 K’s in 200 inningsMid-Late 2019
14.Garrett Hampson2B/SSColorado RockiesAAA/MLB23.296/.355, 11 HRs, 29 SBsOpening Day 2019
15.Wander FrancoSSTampa Bay RaysROK17.288/.347, 22 HRs, 7 SBs2021
16.Alex KirilloffOFMinnesota TwinsA+20.284/.327, 24 HRs, 3 SBs2020
17.MacKenzie GoreSPSan Diego PadresA193.39 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 212 K’s in 200 innings2021
18.Luis RobertOFChicago White SoxA+21.263/.321, 19 HRs, 23 SBs2020
19.Yordan Alvarez1B/OFHouston AstrosAAA21.276/.352, 28 HRs, 3 SBLate 2019
20.Peter Alonso1BNew York MetsAAA23.273/.344, 29 HRs, 1 SBEarly-Mid 2019
21.Keston Hiura2BMilwaukee BrewersAA22.286/.340, 21 HRs, 6 SBsLate 2019
22.Nathaniel Lowe1BTampa Bay RaysAAA23.282/.351, 25 HRs, 1 SBLate 2019
23.Brent HoneywellSPTampa Bay RaysAAA233.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 216 K’s in 200 inningsMid 2019
24.Francisco MejiaCSan Diego PadresAAA/MLB22.283/.334, 18 HRs, 2 SBsOpening Day 2019
25.Mitch KellerSPPittsburgh PiratesAAA223.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 179 K’s in 200 inningsMid 2019
26.Carter KieboomSSWashington NationalsAA21.271/.352, 23 HRs, 4 SBs2020
27.Alex ReyesSPSt. Louis CardinalsAAA/MLB233.44 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 223 K’s in 200 inningsEarly 2019
28.Michael KopechSPChicago White SoxAAA/MLB223.46 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 226 K’s in 200 innings2020
29.Mike SorokaSPAtlanta BravesAAA/MLB213.52 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 166 K’s in 200 inningsEarly 2019
30.Nick Madrigal2BChicago White SoxA+21.299/.346, 11 HRs, 21 SBs2020
31.Triston McKenzieSPCleveland IndiansAA233.56 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 193 K’s in 200 inningsLate 2019
32.Casey MizeSPDetroit TigersA+213.47 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 206 K’s in 200 innings2020
33.Sixto SanchezSPPhiladelphia PhilliesA+203.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 181 K’s in 200 innings2020
34.Vidal Brujan2BTampa Bay RaysA20.282/.347, 10 HRs, 27 SBs2021
35.Chris PaddackSPSan Diego PadresAA223.54 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K’s in 200 inningsLate 2019
36.Jesus SanchezOFTampa Bay RaysAA20.279/.318, 23 HRs, 7 SBs2020
37.A.J. PukSPOakland AthleticsAA233.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 214 K’s in 200 inningsMid-Late 2019
38.Touki ToussaintSPAtlanta BravesAAA/MLB223.57 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 199 K’s in 2oo inningsOpening Day 2019
39.Dylan CeaseSPChicago White SoxAA223.58 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 218 K’s in 200 inningsLate 2019
40.Kyle WrightSPAtlanta BravesAAA/MLB223.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 189 K’s in 200 inningsEarly-Mid 2019
41.Austin Riley3BAtlanta BravesAAA21.262/.323, 26 HRs, 2 SBsMid 2019
42.Alec Bohm3BPhiladelphia PhilliesA22.270/.342, 25 HRs, 5 SBs2020
43.Nolan Gorman3BSt. Louis CardinalsA18.258/.337, 30 HRs, 1 SB2021
44.Ian AndersonSPAtlanta BravesAA203.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 204 K’s in 200 innings2020
45.Justus SheffieldSPNew York YankeesAAA223.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 185 K’s in 200 inningsMid 2019
46.Alex VerdugoOFLos Angeles DodgersAAA22.287/.346, 17 HRs, 7 SBsEarly 2019
47.Brendan MckaySP/1BTampa Bay RaysA+223.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 188 K’s in 200 innings2020
48.Hunter GreeneSPCincinnati RedsA193.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 204 K’s in 200 innings2021
49.Luiz GoharaSPAtlanta BravesAAA/MLB223.63 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 212 K’s in 200 inningsEarly 2019
50.Danny JansenCToronto Blue JaysAAA/MLB22.282/.368, 15 HRs, 2 SBsOpening Day 2019
51.Colton Welker3BColorado RockiesA+20.286/.335, 21 HRs, 3 SBs2020
52.Keibert RuizCLos Angeles DodgersAA20.285/.327, 16 HRs, 2 SBs2020
53.Nolan Jones3BCleveland IndiansA+20.273/.364, 22 HRs, 4 SBs2020-2021
54.Nate PearsonSPToronto Blue JaysA+223.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 219 K’s in 200 innings2020
55.Michael BaezSPSan Diego PadresAA223.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 213 K’s in 200 innings2020
56.Brusdar GraterolSPMinnesota TwinsA+203.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 187 K’s in 200 innings2021
57.Michael Chavis3BBoston Red SoxAAA23.258/.318, 27 HRs, 3 SBsLate 2019
58.Christin StewartOFDetroit TigersAAA/MLB24.255/.339, 26 HRs, 3 SBsEarly 2019
59.Jon DuplantierSPArizona DiamondbacksAA243.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 194 K’s in 200 inningsLate 2019
60.Corbin BurnesSPMilwaukee BrewersAAA/MLB243.73 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 181 K’s in 200 inningsOpening Day 2019
61.Corbin MartinSPHouston AstrosAA223.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 176 K’s in 200 inningsLate 2019
62.Adrian MorejonSPSan Diego PadresA+193.69 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 181 K’s in 200 innings2020
63.Jonathan LoaisigaSPNew York YankeesAAA/MLB233.72 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 201 K’s in 200 inningsEarly 2019
64.Jonathan India3BCincinnati RedsA21.266/.340, 22 HRs, 7 SBs2020
65.Jorge MateoSSOakland AthleticsAAA23 .248/.306, 11 HRs, 36 SBsMid-Late 2019
66.Luis PatinoSPSan Diego PadresA183.64 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 183 K’s in 200 innings2023
67.Trevor LarnachOFMinnesota TwinsA21.256/.344, 26 HRs, 2 SBs2021
68.Matt ManningSPDetroit TigersAA203.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 213 K’s in 200 innings2020
69.Deivi GarciaSPNew York YankeesAA193.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 189 K’s in 200 innings2021
70.Dane DunningSPChicago White SoxAA233.81 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 189 K’s in 200 inningsLate 2019
71.Luis Urias2BSan Diego PadresAAA/MLB21.290/.342, 13 HRs, 6 SBsOpening Day 2019
72.Isaac ParadesSSDetroit TigersAA19.281/.346, 20 HRs, 1 SB2020
73.Matthew LiberatoreSPTampa Bay RaysROK183.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 183 K’s in 200 innings2022
74.Bryse WilsonSPAtlanta BravesAAA/MLB203.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 180 K’s in 200 inningsMid-Late 2019
75.Jahmai Jones2B/OFLos Angeles AngelsAA21.269/.339, 17 HRs, 19 SBs2020
76.Travis SwaggertyOFPittsburgh PiratesA21.263/.337, 16 HRs, 22 SBs2021
77.Dustin MaySPLos Angeles DodgersAA213.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 156 K’s in 200 innings2020
78.Brandon Lowe2B/OFTampa Bay RaysAAA/MLB24.271/.353, 22 HRs, 4 SBsEarly 2019
79.Griffin CanningSPLos Angeles AngelsAAA223.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 187 K’s in 200 inningsLate 2019
80.Adonis MedinaSPPhiladelphia PhilliesA+213.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 178 K’s in 200 innings2020
81.Evan White1B/OFSeattle MarinersA+22.273/.338, 18 HRs, 12 SBs2020
82.Dennis SantanaSPLos Angeles DodgersAAA223.89 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 209 K’s in 200 inningsLate 2019
83.Joshua JamesSP Houston AstrosAAA/MLB253.93 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 193 K’s in 200 inningsEarly 2019
84.Taylor WidenerSPArizona DiamondbacksAA233.92 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 189 K’s in 200 inningsLate 2019
85.Jarred KelenicOFNew York MetsROK19.275/.336, 19 HRs, 8 SBs2021
86.Logan AllenSPSan Diego PadresAAA213.96 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 177 K’s in 200 inningsMid-Late 2019
87.Franklin PerezSPDetroit TigersA+203.97 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 171 K’s in 200 innings2021
88.Brady SingerSPKansas City RoyalsROK223.95 ERA, 1.28 ERA, 179 K’s in 200 innings2021
89.Ryan Mountcastle3BBaltimore OriolesAA21.274/.311, 21 HRs, 2 SBsLate 2019
90.Justin DunnSPNew York MetsAA234.01 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 187 K’s in 200 innings2020
91.Shane BazSPTampa Bay RaysROK194.03 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 192 K’s in 200 innings2022
92.Estevan FlorialOFNew York YankeesA+20.243/.322, 23 HRs, 18 SBs2020
93.Anthony AlfordOFToronto Blue JaysAAA/MLB24.247/.328, 17 HRs, 22 SBsEarly 2019
94.Corey RayOFMilwaukee BrewersAA24.240/.311, 19 HRs, 21 SBsLate 2019
95.Monte HarrisonOFMiami MarlinsAA23.234/.307, 18 HRs, 20 SBs2020
96.Eric PardinhoSPToronto Blue JaysROK173.93 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 182 K’s in 200 innings2021
97.DL HallSPBaltimore OriolesA204.06 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 184 K’s in 200 innings2020
98.Daz CameronOFDetroit TigersAAA21.269/.343, 16 HRs, 17 SBs2020
99.Nick Solak2BTampa Bay RaysAAA23.277/.342, 16 HRs, 12 SBsLate 2019
100.Drew WatersOFAtlanta BravesA+19.268/.319, 18 HRs, 14 SBs2021
101.Brandon MarshOFLos Angeles AngelsA+20.258/.338, 18 HRs, 14 SBs2020
102.Xavier Edwards2B/SSSan Diego PadresA-19.276/.338, 6 HRs, 30 SBs2022
103.Bubba ThompsonOFTexas RangersA20.243/.298, 16 HRs, 22 SBs2022
104.Jordyn AdamsOFLos Angeles AngelsROK18.249/.334, 14 HRs, 26 SBs2023
105.Joey WentzSPAtlanta BravesA+214.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 176 K’s in 200 innings2020
106.Cionel PerezSPHouston AstrosAAA/MLB224.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 180 K’s in 200 inningsMid 2019
107.Andres GimenezSSNew York MetsAA20.273/.336, 12 HRs, 13 SBs2020
108.Jeisson RosarioOFSan Diego PadresA18.278/.357, 15 HRs, 17 SBs2021
109.Dalton VarshoCArizona DiamondbacksA+21.271/.333, 16 HRs, 11 SBs2021
110.Leody TavaresOFTexas RangersA+20.269/.317, 13 HRs, 14 SBs2020
111.Luis GarciaSSWashington NationalsA+18.279/.316, 9 HRs, 14 SBs2021
112.Ronaldo HernandezCTampa Bay RaysA20.264/.311, 21 HRs, 3 SBs2022
113.Sean Reid-FoleySPToronto Blue JaysAAA/MLB234.11 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 201 K’s in 200 inningsMid 2019
114.Shed Long2BCincinnati RedsAA23.262/.328, 17 HRs, 10 SBsLate 2019
115.Kevin SmithSS/3BToronto Blue JaysA+22.255/.311, 18 HRs, 10 SBs2020
116.Akil BaddooOFMinnesota TwinsA20.253/.340, 13 HRs, 18 SBs2021
117.Jeter DownsSSCincinnati RedsA20.266/.335, 15 HRs, 12 SBs2021
118.Khalil LeeOFKansas City RoyalsAA20.244/.340, 18 HRs, 11 SBsLate 2019
119.Julio Pablo MartinezOFTexas RangersA-22.248/.341, 14 HRs, 18 SBs2021
120.Luis Rengifo2B/SSLos Angeles AngelsAAA21.264/.331, 8 HRs, 18 SBsLate 2019
121.Esteury Ruiz2BSan Diego PadresA19.245/.309, 19 HRs, 12 SBs2022
122.Joey BartCSan Francisco GiantsA-21.251/.317 21 HRs, 2 SBs2021
123.Tony SantillanSPCincinnati RedsAA214.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 183 K’s in 200 innings2020
124.Austin HaysOFBaltimore OriolesAA23.267/.303, 24 HRs, 3 SBsMid 2019
125.Elehuris Montero3BSt. Louis CardinalsA+20.269/.333, 23 HRs, 1 SB2021
126.Seth Beer1B/DHHouston AstrosA+22.260/.338, 24 HRs, 1 SB2021
127.Cavan Biggio2B/OFToronto Blue JaysAA23.253/.364, 21 HRs, 5 SBsLate 2019
128.Myles StrawOFHouston AstrosAAA/MLB23.270/.343, 1 HR, 31 SBsMid-Late 2019
129.Seuly MatiasOFKansas City RoyalsA20.231/.294, 32 HRs, 3 SBs2022
130.Zack CollinsCChicago White SoxAA23.236/.357, 24 HRs, 1 SBLate 2019
131.Stephen GonsalvesSPMinnesota TwinsAAA244.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 174 K’s in 200 inningsEarly-Mid 2019
132.Gavin Lux2B/SSLos Angeles DodgersAA20.271/.343, 17 HRs, 8 SBs2020
133.Adam HaseleyOFPhiladelphia PhilliesAA22.276/.335, 16 HRs, 7 SBsLate 2019
134.Yusniel DiazOFBaltimore OriolesAA21.273/.346, 15 HRs, 5 SBsLate 2019
135.Josh Naylor1BSan Diego PadresAA21.278/.341, 19 HRs, 1 SB2020
136.Cole WinnSPTexas RangersROK183.90 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 184 K’s in 200 innings2022
137.Grant Lavigne1BColorado RockiesROK19.263/.346, 24 HRs, 5 SBs2022
138.Malcom Nunez3BSt. Louis CardinalsROK17.272/.343, 22 HRs, 2 SBs2023
139.Braxton GarrettSPMiami MarlinsA214.07 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 184 K’s in 200 innings2021
140.Jordan GroshansSS/3BToronto Blue JaysROK18.263/.336, 18 HRs, 3 SBs2022
141.Mark Vientos3BNew York MetsROK18.268/.340, 19 HRs, 1 SB2022
142.Kolby AllardSPAtlanta BravesAAA/MLB214.08 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 154 K’s in 200 inningsEarly-Mid 2019
143.Heliot RamosOFSan Francisco GiantsA19.239/.302, 23 HRs, 9 SBs2021
144.Hudson Potts3BSan Diego PadresAA19.248/.301, 22 HRs, 2 SBs2020
145.Isan Diaz2BMiami MarlinsAAA22.238/.337, 22 HRs, 6 SBsLate 2019
146.Will SmithCLos Angeles DodgersAAA23.242/.332, 18 HRs, 3 SBsLate 2019
147.Oneil CruzSS/3BPittsburgh PiratesA19.240/.309, 20 HRs, 6 SBs2021
148.Dakota HudsonSPSt. Louis CardinalsAAA/MLB244.12 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 150 K’s in 200 inningsEarly 2019
149.Ke’Bryan Hayes3BPittsburgh PiratesAA21.273/.340, 14 HRs, 7 SBs2020
150.Jose SuarezSPLos Angeles AngelsAAA204.18 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 183 K’s in 200 inningsLate 2019

Players also considered for the list in no particular order:

Cal Quantrill, Albert Abreu, Christian Pache, William Contreras, Beau Burrows, Nick Gordon, Alex Faedo, Chance Adams, Blake Rutherford, Cal Quantrill, Anderson Espinoza, Sandy Alcantara, Brent Rooker, Jose Siri, MJ Melendez, Alec Hansen, Miguel Amaya, Chris Shaw, Andrew Knizer, Bobby Bradley, Conner Scott, Kyler Murray, Lazaro Armenteros, D.J Peters, Ronnie Mauricio, Tyler Freeman, Luis Oviedo, Brayan Rocchio, D’Shawn Knowles, Nick Neidert, Antonio Cabello, Enyel De Los Santos and more!

Adam Garland

Adam is a marketing professional 9-5, but a fan and nerd of the beautiful game of baseball 24/7. He's known for his "Going Deep" articles on both MLB and MiLB players and has a strong reputation of identifying valuable players before the consensus. His passion though is MLB prospects, and he loves digging into scouting reports and dissecting the stats of prospects trying to understand what they mean. He plays in multiple dynasty leagues of varying sizes, and he hopes he can help with yours! He's also always up to talk baseball/prospects with anyone, so please don't hesitate to strike up a conversation here or @AdamGarlando on Twitter!

  • Avatar Jaboy says:

    Willie Calhoun has 133 AB so isn’t eligible anymore.

  • Avatar tommy says:

    nice list and comments in your article
    I’m in a 12 team dynasty league with 12 keepers 7×7 INCLUDES holds

    10 prospects
    4 single a spots ..
    3 quad aaaa can stash for 1 calendar year

    its offseason so i am able to stash on my espn roster till draft day

    your comments would be appreciated.. top 10 is what i would keep today ..
    rankings are mostly from rotowire and YOUR list until further updated lists become available

    kristian robinson and morejon are safe and stashed in single a for 1 year .
    Winker will be on my mlb roster march 31 as his quad aaaa elgibilty expires
    Buttrey i stashed for now hoping he’s a usefull reliever sometime next year

    single a
    kristian robinson #29
    adrian morejon #123 / 46 mlb

    quad aaaa
    gohara #132 / 78 mlb
    jesse winker
    ty buttrey

    triple aaa

    1 – victor robles MLB ROSTER
    2- wander franco
    3- whitley #6 / 8 mlb MLB ROSTER
    4- josh james #52 / 95 mlb MLB ROSTER
    5 – victor victor
    6- d’shawn knowles #59
    7- kevin smith #72/116 pl/
    8 – hudson potts #49/77 raz/145 pl/
    9 – bubba thompson #58/104 pl/ mlb roster
    10 – tyler freeman #70 mlb roster

    11-bryce wilson #53 / 96 mlb/75 pl/ mlb roster

    dl hall #59/98 pl mlb roster
    tirso ornelas #79/83 raz prospect roster
    patrick wisdom 3b #85 mlb roster
    mark vientos #88/143 pl/ mlb roster
    logan allen p #96 /76 mlb/87 pl mlb roster
    daz cameron #98/99 pl/ mlb roster
    marco luciano #107 triple aaa
    jeremiah jackson #104 triple aaa
    jasrodo chis #101 triple aaa
    grant lavigne #158/139 pl/ triple aaa

    framber valdez
    reid-foley #141/11

    • Avatar Adam Garland says:

      Interesting situation, a number of intriguing prospects here to consider! My first question is can you move players from your currrent prospect list to your Single-A or AAAA spots? If so, I think there’s some worthwhile options like Tirso Ornelas, Mark Vientos, or Grant Lavigne to hold that allow you to keep more than those 10 (you seemingly have spots opening up with Winker coming off AAAA and only 2 listed as Single-A players.

      For the 10, I would go with:

      1. Victor Robles
      2. Wander Franco
      3.Forrest Whitley
      4. Bryse Wilson
      5. Josh James
      6. Kevin Smith
      7. Bubba Thompson
      8. Daz Cameron
      9. Victor Victor
      10. DL Hall/Sean Reid Foley.

      Victor Victor is a wildcard. Scouting reports suggest a profile of 50/55 hit, 45 game power, and 60 run which projects to roughly .260-.270 with 12-15 HRs, and the upside of probably 20ish SBs. If that’s the case, that slots him in around Travis Swaggerty and Jahmai Jones in the upper 70’s but I just don’t know how the SB potential will transfer and that gives me concern. He did steal 40 bases against 10 CS in 290 PAs two years ago in Cuba but I’m not sure how transferable that is to North America and the majors. The scouting comp most often attached to Mesa has been Albert Almora who isn’t the highest regarded fantasy player.

      Hope that was helpful, and I’m happy to answer any further questions you may have on the situation!

  • Avatar Harley Earl says:

    Just curious, what are you thoughts about Garrett Hampson for next season?

    Also, is this ranking based more on his likelihood of being in the majors next season or is more heavily weighted toward his skill level? This is the highest I’ve seen him, although he appears to have moved up a lot of rankings over the last six months.

    • Avatar Adam Garland says:

      I’ll probably end up as one of the higher guys on Hampson but I think his skillset is very fantasy friendly! First off, he’s got well above-average contact skills highlighted by a 7% swinging-strike rate at AAA and 5.2% swinging-strike rate at AA. His 10.4% swinging-strike rate in a small sample in the majors is encouraging too and likely will go down with more MLB experience. For reference, MLB average last year was 10.7%, so even with some regression in his transition up to the majors, he projects as a very good contact hitter. 2nd, Hampson can run! He’s often graded as a 70-grade runner, and he has the instincts to use that speed effectively. He stole 38 bags last year split between AA/AAA/and the majors with just 5 CS. The year before he stole 51 bags against 14 CS at A+. He’s efficient on the basepaths and I think there’s a good chance he’s a 30 SB guy in the majors with upside for 40. Add in that he’s not bereft of power, hitting 10 HRs last year split between 3 levels and 8 the year before, and the thought of Coors Field helping him a bit in the majors in that department and he projects as a fantasy monster in the mold of a Starling Marte, Lorenzo Cain, Jean Segura type at 2B/SS.

      Now I get the concern over playing time for Hampson, he’s going to have to fend off a few interesting and highly valued players in the organization like Brendan Rodgers, but I think Hampson will get the first chance as Rodgers looks to need a little more time in AAA currently. Hampson looks ready to be given a chance at 2B with DJ Lemahieu a likely goner in FA as he handled AAA well and even did well in the majors in a small sample size, and he could run with it if he proves himself capable. I also think there’s a good chance that Hampson gets an opportunity in the OF, particularly in CF as Charlie Blackmon is better off in a corner OF spot now and Cargo is likely gone as well. Dahl and Tapia both deserve to get their chance, but Dahl is likely a platoon option at this point:

      .234/.258/.438 line with an elevated K rate against lefties this year for a 68 wRC+ .
      286/.346/.568 line against righties this year for a 123 wRC+
      Career history is similar
      Interestingly, he’s been okay home against lefties riding a higher BAPIP but put up a -40 wRC+ on the road against lefties this year.

      Right now, I see Hampson as a guy that will get an opportunity to win the 2B job out of camp, with some utility role that allows him to get some time in the OF as well sort of like how the Cubs have managed Ben Zobrist. The ranking is solely on skill rather than opportunity btw, I just think his skillset is quite fantasy friendly. Interested to see how it all plays out next year!

      • Avatar Nick G says:

        I agree with most of your points, but it’s hard for me to envision Dahl as a platoon option. If you are a lefty, and your-weak side platoon gets you a 411 slugging percentage, that’s pretty good considering it’s only in 25-30% of your ABs. It’s also impressive considering his age and lack of MLB experience. One other thing to consider is that Dahl didn’t exhibit a biglefty weakness in the minors.

        A lot will depend on how Colorado rounds out their roster, but given Dahl’s bat skill, age and positional versatility in the outfield, I think he’s an every day guy.

      • Avatar Harley Earl says:

        Adam, thanks so much for the writeup on Hampson! Great stuff here. I didn’t realize that about his swinging-strike rate or his high contact rate. With those kinds of rates, you’re right, he should translate into a strong MLB hitter with a nice/high on-base percentage. Love the speed and the steals and really like that he’s got some pop in the bat too. He should benefit from a lot of Coors-friendly doubles and triples. And 100+ runs is almost a gimme as the leadoff hitter in Colorado. Sign me up!!! I’ve got one share of him in a dynasty league, so I hope he makes it happen. Also, with the possibility of Arrenado leaving after 2019, that makes me believe Rodgers could be slotted at 3B or perhaps Story could move to 3B. Yeah, should be very interesting to see how it all plays out but I do like his chances! Thanks!

  • Avatar Ryan says:

    Where would Japanese pitcher Yusei Kikuchi rank in this list, roughly? Sounds like he’ll be posted this winter.

    • Avatar Adam Garland says:

      Interesting question! I have a future MLB imports article planned that will go more in-depth on Kikuchi and other intriguing potential Pacific-Asian MLB postings. Kikuchi is left-handed pitcher, he had a 3.08 ERA with 153 strikeouts (23.4 K%) and 45 walks in 23 starts and 163.2 innings in 2018. Scouting reports suggest that he has 4 offerings, highlighted by a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90’s and a good changeup. He also has a slider and changeup that aren’t as sharp and consistent as the fastball/changeup combo but flash in certain games and he’s become more adept at using them in recent years. That sort of pitch mix gives him a chance to be a #2 SP right away, and the overall pitch mix looks something like Gerrit Cole in Pittsburgh. That’s an easy top 50 prospect!

      Hope that was helpful!

  • Avatar Brian says:

    Sean Murphy? I’m guessing you rank him behind Will Smith and Zach Collins, but maybe he is in the large clump of players that is 100-150? Seems like he has a reasonable defensive path to MLB, but lower offensive upside?

    • Avatar Adam Garland says:

      I think you nailed it with Sean Murphy. Very simply, he’s just behind Will Smith and Zack Collins among catchers in terms of fantasy outlook at the moment and he’s just outside that 150 clump of players to me despite the obvious defensive strengths that push him up on traditional prospect lists. He’s consistently shown quality contact skills with good strikeout rates and above-average swinging-strike rates at every stop. He can also take a walk and should post solid OBP numbers which will make him a valuable real life catcher. The concern is the power upside at the moment. He’s got good raw pop with many 55 grades, but it plays down in games due to a low launch angle currently. He’s consistently put up GB rates around 50% give or take, and if that continues than he may have a tough time reaching the seats more than in the low-double digits. He may be a guy that’s suited for a gradual launch angle change at some point to tap into his power more but currently, he’s a higher floor/moderate upside C that is just outside the top 150 imo.

  • Avatar Nicholas Gerli says:

    Good job on this! A lot of work must have gone in.

    For the inevitable nitpicks:

    -I have Tucker above Robles on my list. Tucker is such a complete hitter and had a dominating AAA season. From June 1st onward, Tucker posted a 198 wRC+ and 388 / 444 / 718 triple slash in AAA. Robles hasn’t approached that level of production in the high minors yet and they’re basically the same age. Robles might have some latent power potential that hasn’t really shown itself yet, but I think Tucker is a safe bet to be the more well-rounded and complete hitter, with some steal upside as well.

    -I’d have Fernando Tatis in the top five, and definitely above Lewis and Bichette. The type of power output he showed in the Texas league (fourth in ISO, second in wRC+) at 19 is fairly unprecedented. I think his MLB power potential is 35+ HR fairly easily.

    -Although it’s more speculative given his age, I think Franco needs to be in the top 10. The plate discipline he showed in rookie ball this year is exceedingly rare (1.42 BB/K), and he did it at 17, three to five years younger than most of his competition.

    • Avatar Adam Garland says:

      Thanks for the kind words, I appreciate it! I also appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts on the rankings and prospects, some great points here and I love the takes!

      I definitely see the case for Kyle Tucker over Victor Robles, Tucker has done nothing but rake since getting to full-season ball including dominating down the stretch in AAA as you mentioned, and Robles has struggled with injuries and has seen his stock fall in some eyes. I ranked them accordingly based mostly on power/speed upside at this point and you can see why I ranked Robles a touch above simply by looking at the projections of the two. I believe in the speed of Robles making more of an impact (legit 70 run, even 75 run grades) and has shown fairly aggressive baserunning to rack up 86 SBs over the last 3 years (72.2% success rate) despite the injuries. Tucker has also shown aptitude on the base paths with 74 SBs (74% success rate). He’s done so with more PA’s though and many scouts are projecting his speed tool to take a step back into below-average range (45/40 future grades) as he further fills out which will put more importance on his bat to return fantasy goodness. Tucker should easily have the edge in power but I don’t think Robles will be a slouch. Robles hit 58 extra base hits in 2017 and has the bat speed and contact skills to run into his fair share and I believe he does have some latent power coming. Overall it’s super close, and really it’s like trying to decide between a Lorenzo Cain/Starling Marte type and an Alex Bregman type (Bregman showed better contact skills but is less BAPIP happy compared to Tucker). There’s a case to be made for either really!

      Regarding Tatis Jr., I may be one of the lower guys on him despite really loving his power/speed upside while potentially playing SS. My concern is the contact profile which at the moment, I feel like many are projecting heavily on based on his age. To date in his minor league career, he is yet to show league average contact skills. He posted a 27.7% K rate last year at AA and supported it with an ugly 16.5% swinging-strike rate which is well below-average and would have ranked 5th worst in the Southern League if he had enough PAs to qualify. For reference, MLB average last year was 10.7%, and swinging-strike rate is generally pretty telling about a prospect. Take a look at similarly hyped prospects like Byron Buxton and Yoan Moncada, both showed poor swinging-strike rate in the minors and have had similar poor swinging-strike rates in the majors. Now it’s obviously not all doom and gloom, Tatis Jr. showed improvement as he gained more AA experience before his injury, and he’s still just 19 while having played at a much younger age than normal for each level so there’s lots of reason to project on his contact skills. He also has many high BAPIP traits including a high line-drive rate, a reasonable use of the whole field, and quality speed to help him beat out groundballs that all should help him post quality slash lines despite potential contact issues. Still, I simply think the guys I ranked in front of him show a safer contact profile while also showing impressive power/speed profiles and that’s why I have Tatis Jr. ranked where he is.

      Franco is super interesting to me, has that early Juan Soto look with incredible plate discipline and power at such a young age. I definitely think there’s a case to be made that he pushes the back end of the top 10 but he’s still just 17 and hasn’t reached full-season ball yet. Ranking a guy that early in his development at 15 is pretty rare and really impressive, and there’s so much still to come for him and that has me playing things somewhat safe with him. The profile looks really safe though and I think it’s very likely he’s a universal top 10 prospect by mid-season 2019.

      • Avatar Nick G says:

        These are all fair points.

        Looking deeper into Tucker you’re probably right about his stolen bases subsiding. His sprint speed was in JD Davis and Evan Gattis territory with the Astros this year, so against MLB pick off moves and catcher arms he probably doesn’t get the green light.

        I’m not so concerned about Tatis’ contact considering how young he is. He was 19 years and 3 months old when the 2018 season started. The Texas league is notoriously pitcher friendly. When Buxton was the same age he was still in rookie ball, and didn’t log a fullish AA season until he was 22. Similarly, Moncada was 20/21 when he hit AA. Tatis certainly has more variance than Lewis and Bichette in his projections, but his upside is much higher. I’ll probably be stashing him at the outset next year.

  • Avatar Harley Earl says:

    Just curious, how long before Atlanta calls Austin Riley up? Makes team out of spring training? middle of April? July? If Camargo starts off slow, I don’t see them waiting too long on this guy. He’s proven to be a beast when healthy.

    • Avatar Adam Garland says:

      Good question! As you can see from the list, I anticipate Austin Riley to get the call to the majors mid-season this year, very likely after the Super 2 cutoff in June. Right now, I don’t think he’s ready to make the team out of spring training, he just hasn’t shown the type of contact skills at the highest level of the minors to have enough belief that he can hit the ground running in the majors yet imo. He spent the majority of the year in AAA this past season (324 PAs) and managed a 29.3% K rate and supported it with a very below-average 14.7% swinging-strike rate (note that MLB average this past year was 10.7%) which suggests that he would be overmatched in the majors currently. Now Riley has consistently produced great BAPIP numbers and he has good BAPIP traits including a high line-drive rate, the ability to use the whole field, a quality eye at the plate to avoid swinging at too many pitches that he can’t handle, and the ability to impact the baseball to all fields when he does make contact and so he may not need to be a great contact hitter to produce quality slash lines in the majors. The contact skills do concern me though as there are not many comparables with those sort of contact skills and BAPIP reliance right now in the majors. Him going back to AAA and honing his contact skills and approach while also securing the team benefits of holding him back in the minors (extra year of control and potentiall $ savings) seems like the likely outcome at this point. That means sometime between Mid-June and September is his likely ETA.

      • Avatar Harley Earl says:

        Thanks for the reply. That makes a lot of sense. I can never remember when the cutoff days are for holding a player down and retaining them for an extra year of service time. Some guys go in the middle of April like Kris Bryant, some guys get held until June like George Springer. I think you’re evaluation of the situation is highly likely. Seems like honing his skills in AAA wouldn’t hurt him at all and it would protect the Braves for another year. I’m going to hope he gets the call sometime around July. If he doesn’t get it until September, I’m afraid he will probably have struggled. Thank!

  • Avatar Jake says:

    I know Willie Calhoun is over limits, but what are your thoughts on him going forward? How do you project his SwSt%, K%, can he hit lefties, and any guess if he breaks camp with 2019 Rangers. Thanks.

  • Avatar theKraken says:

    Why so low on Josh James? You would rather have Touki?

  • Avatar Jim Delaney says:

    Curious why the projected ETA for Kopech is 2020. Do you think he gets MLB service time in 2019?

  • Avatar larry says:

    Reyes has 50 innings pitched

  • Avatar Matt DeLeo says:

    He has to exceed 50 IP to not qualify as a prospect so he still retains that status

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