October 2018 Top 150 Fantasy Prospects List

(Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

We are currently in the third week of Arizona Fall League (AFL) play where many of the game’s top prospects are playing including Toronto Blue Jays 3B prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Milwaukee Brewers 2B prospect Keston Hiura, and New York Mets 1B prospect Peter Alonso. The gap between the end of the minor league season and the beginning of the AFL season allowed me to revisit the prospect rankings from mid-season that my college Brennen Gorman and I put together. We put together a top 150 Overall list for both hitters and pitchers at mid-season, plus also covered position by position rankings that went 30 deep (50 for outfielders) and we plan to do that again in time for MLB Spring Training.

For now though, here is my top 150 overall prospects list as sort of an appetizer to hold you over until then! Like our position by position rankings, I have included a rough prime projection for each player as well as an estimated ETA. I am abiding by rookie status to determine prospect status meaning that a player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors to be considered. Note that I place an emphasis on upside, namely power and speed guys like the guy pictured above, SS Royce Lewis of the Minnesota Twins organization, while also prioritizing closeness to the majors when the value is close. Feel free to ask questions or drop a comment, I’m are always happy to discuss! Without further ado, onto the list!

Rank Player Pos. Organization Level Age Projection ETA
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B Toronto Blue Jays AAA 19 .313/.402, 32 HRs, 3 SBs April 2019
2. Eloy Jimenez OF Chicago White Sox AAA 21 .292/.343, 36 HRs, 3 SBs April 2019
3. Victor Robles OF Washington Nationals AAA/MLB 21 .287/.342, 19 HRs, 33 SB Early 2019
4. Kyle Tucker OF Houston Astros AAA 21 .286/.348, 27 HRs, 16 SBs Early 2019
5. Nick Senzel 3B Cincinnati Reds AAA 23 .291/.361, 23 HRs, 14 SBs Mid 2019
6. Royce Lewis SS Minnesota Twins A+ 19 .278/.338, 18 HRs, 27 SBs 2020
7. Bo Bichette SS Toronto Blue Jays AA 20 .288/.340, 24 HRs, 11 SBs Mid-Late 2019
8. Fernando Tatis Jr. SS San Diego Padres AA 19 .269/.340, 27 HRs, 12 SBs Late 2019
9. Forrest Whitley SP Houston Astros AA 21 3.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 239 K’s in 200 innings Late 2019
10. Brendan Rodgers SS Colorado Rockies AAA 22 .281/.327, 26 HRs, 6 SBs Mid-Late 2019
11. Jo Adell OF Los Angeles Angels AA 19 .268/.326. 26 HRs, 11 SBs 2020
12. Taylor Trammell OF Cincinnati Reds A+ 21 .264/.337, 18 HRs, 24 SBs 2020-2021
13. Jesus Luzardo SP Oakland Athletics SP 20 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 212 K’s in 200 innings Mid-Late 2019
14. Garrett Hampson 2B/SS Colorado Rockies AAA/MLB 23 .296/.355, 11 HRs, 29 SBs Opening Day 2019
15. Wander Franco SS Tampa Bay Rays ROK 17 .288/.347, 22 HRs, 7 SBs 2021
16. Alex Kirilloff OF Minnesota Twins A+ 20 .284/.327, 24 HRs, 3 SBs 2020
17. MacKenzie Gore SP San Diego Padres A 19 3.39 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 212 K’s in 200 innings 2021
18. Luis Robert OF Chicago White Sox A+ 21 .263/.321, 19 HRs, 23 SBs 2020
19. Yordan Alvarez 1B/OF Houston Astros AAA 21 .276/.352, 28 HRs, 3 SB Late 2019
20. Peter Alonso 1B New York Mets AAA 23 .273/.344, 29 HRs, 1 SB Early-Mid 2019
21. Keston Hiura 2B Milwaukee Brewers AA 22 .286/.340, 21 HRs, 6 SBs Late 2019
22. Nathaniel Lowe 1B Tampa Bay Rays AAA 23 .282/.351, 25 HRs, 1 SB Late 2019
23. Brent Honeywell SP Tampa Bay Rays AAA 23 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 216 K’s in 200 innings Mid 2019
24. Francisco Mejia C San Diego Padres AAA/MLB 22 .283/.334, 18 HRs, 2 SBs Opening Day 2019
25. Mitch Keller SP Pittsburgh Pirates AAA 22 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 179 K’s in 200 innings Mid 2019
26. Carter Kieboom SS Washington Nationals AA 21 .271/.352, 23 HRs, 4 SBs 2020
27. Alex Reyes SP St. Louis Cardinals AAA/MLB 23 3.44 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 223 K’s in 200 innings Early 2019
28. Michael Kopech SP Chicago White Sox AAA/MLB 22 3.46 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 226 K’s in 200 innings 2020
29. Mike Soroka SP Atlanta Braves AAA/MLB 21 3.52 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 166 K’s in 200 innings Early 2019
30. Nick Madrigal 2B Chicago White Sox A+ 21 .299/.346, 11 HRs, 21 SBs 2020
31. Triston McKenzie SP Cleveland Indians AA 23 3.56 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 193 K’s in 200 innings Late 2019
32. Casey Mize SP Detroit Tigers A+ 21 3.47 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 206 K’s in 200 innings 2020
33. Sixto Sanchez SP Philadelphia Phillies A+ 20 3.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 181 K’s in 200 innings 2020
34. Vidal Brujan 2B Tampa Bay Rays A 20 .282/.347, 10 HRs, 27 SBs 2021
35. Chris Paddack SP San Diego Padres AA 22 3.54 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K’s in 200 innings Late 2019
36. Jesus Sanchez OF Tampa Bay Rays AA 20 .279/.318, 23 HRs, 7 SBs 2020
37. A.J. Puk SP Oakland Athletics AA 23 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 214 K’s in 200 innings Mid-Late 2019
38. Touki Toussaint SP Atlanta Braves AAA/MLB 22 3.57 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 199 K’s in 2oo innings Opening Day 2019
39. Dylan Cease SP Chicago White Sox AA 22 3.58 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 218 K’s in 200 innings Late 2019
40. Kyle Wright SP Atlanta Braves AAA/MLB 22 3.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 189 K’s in 200 innings Early-Mid 2019
41. Austin Riley 3B Atlanta Braves AAA 21 .262/.323, 26 HRs, 2 SBs Mid 2019
42. Alec Bohm 3B Philadelphia Phillies A 22 .270/.342, 25 HRs, 5 SBs 2020
43. Nolan Gorman 3B St. Louis Cardinals A 18 .258/.337, 30 HRs, 1 SB 2021
44. Ian Anderson SP Atlanta Braves AA 20 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 204 K’s in 200 innings 2020
45. Justus Sheffield SP New York Yankees AAA 22 3.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 185 K’s in 200 innings Mid 2019
46. Alex Verdugo OF Los Angeles Dodgers AAA 22 .287/.346, 17 HRs, 7 SBs Early 2019
47. Brendan Mckay SP/1B Tampa Bay Rays A+ 22 3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 188 K’s in 200 innings 2020
48. Hunter Greene SP Cincinnati Reds A 19 3.58 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 204 K’s in 200 innings 2021
49. Luiz Gohara SP Atlanta Braves AAA/MLB 22 3.63 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 212 K’s in 200 innings Early 2019
50. Danny Jansen C Toronto Blue Jays AAA/MLB 22 .282/.368, 15 HRs, 2 SBs Opening Day 2019
51. Colton Welker 3B Colorado Rockies A+ 20 .286/.335, 21 HRs, 3 SBs 2020
52. Keibert Ruiz C Los Angeles Dodgers AA 20 .285/.327, 16 HRs, 2 SBs 2020
53. Nolan Jones 3B Cleveland Indians A+ 20 .273/.364, 22 HRs, 4 SBs 2020-2021
54. Nate Pearson SP Toronto Blue Jays A+ 22 3.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 219 K’s in 200 innings 2020
55. Michael Baez SP San Diego Padres AA 22 3.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 213 K’s in 200 innings 2020
56. Brusdar Graterol SP Minnesota Twins A+ 20 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 187 K’s in 200 innings 2021
57. Michael Chavis 3B Boston Red Sox AAA 23 .258/.318, 27 HRs, 3 SBs Late 2019
58. Christin Stewart OF Detroit Tigers AAA/MLB 24 .255/.339, 26 HRs, 3 SBs Early 2019
59. Jon Duplantier SP Arizona Diamondbacks AA 24 3.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 194 K’s in 200 innings Late 2019
60. Corbin Burnes SP Milwaukee Brewers AAA/MLB 24 3.73 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 181 K’s in 200 innings Opening Day 2019
61. Corbin Martin SP Houston Astros AA 22 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 176 K’s in 200 innings Late 2019
62. Adrian Morejon SP San Diego Padres A+ 19 3.69 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 181 K’s in 200 innings 2020
63. Jonathan Loaisiga SP New York Yankees AAA/MLB 23 3.72 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 201 K’s in 200 innings Early 2019
64. Jonathan India 3B Cincinnati Reds A 21 .266/.340, 22 HRs, 7 SBs 2020
65. Jorge Mateo SS Oakland Athletics AAA 23  .248/.306, 11 HRs, 36 SBs Mid-Late 2019
66. Luis Patino SP San Diego Padres A 18 3.64 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 183 K’s in 200 innings 2023
67. Trevor Larnach OF Minnesota Twins A 21 .256/.344, 26 HRs, 2 SBs 2021
68. Matt Manning SP Detroit Tigers AA 20 3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 213 K’s in 200 innings 2020
69. Deivi Garcia SP New York Yankees AA 19 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 189 K’s in 200 innings 2021
70. Dane Dunning SP Chicago White Sox AA 23 3.81 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 189 K’s in 200 innings Late 2019
71. Luis Urias 2B San Diego Padres AAA/MLB 21 .290/.342, 13 HRs, 6 SBs Opening Day 2019
72. Isaac Parades SS Detroit Tigers AA 19 .281/.346, 20 HRs, 1 SB 2020
73. Matthew Liberatore SP Tampa Bay Rays ROK 18 3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 183 K’s in 200 innings 2022
74. Bryse Wilson SP Atlanta Braves AAA/MLB 20 3.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 180 K’s in 200 innings Mid-Late 2019
75. Jahmai Jones 2B/OF Los Angeles Angels AA 21 .269/.339, 17 HRs, 19 SBs 2020
76. Travis Swaggerty OF Pittsburgh Pirates A 21 .263/.337, 16 HRs, 22 SBs 2021
77. Dustin May SP Los Angeles Dodgers AA 21 3.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 156 K’s in 200 innings 2020
78. Brandon Lowe 2B/OF Tampa Bay Rays AAA/MLB 24 .271/.353, 22 HRs, 4 SBs Early 2019
79. Griffin Canning SP Los Angeles Angels AAA 22 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 187 K’s in 200 innings Late 2019
80. Adonis Medina SP Philadelphia Phillies A+ 21 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 178 K’s in 200 innings 2020
81. Evan White 1B/OF Seattle Mariners A+ 22 .273/.338, 18 HRs, 12 SBs 2020
82. Dennis Santana SP Los Angeles Dodgers AAA 22 3.89 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 209 K’s in 200 innings Late 2019
83. Joshua James SP  Houston Astros AAA/MLB 25 3.93 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 193 K’s in 200 innings Early 2019
84. Taylor Widener SP Arizona Diamondbacks AA 23 3.92 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 189 K’s in 200 innings Late 2019
85. Jarred Kelenic OF New York Mets ROK 19 .275/.336, 19 HRs, 8 SBs 2021
86. Logan Allen SP San Diego Padres AAA 21 3.96 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 177 K’s in 200 innings Mid-Late 2019
87. Franklin Perez SP Detroit Tigers A+ 20 3.97 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 171 K’s in 200 innings 2021
88. Brady Singer SP Kansas City Royals ROK 22 3.95 ERA, 1.28 ERA, 179 K’s in 200 innings 2021
89. Ryan Mountcastle 3B Baltimore Orioles AA 21 .274/.311, 21 HRs, 2 SBs Late 2019
90. Justin Dunn SP New York Mets AA 23 4.01 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 187 K’s in 200 innings 2020
91. Shane Baz SP Tampa Bay Rays ROK 19 4.03 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 192 K’s in 200 innings 2022
92. Estevan Florial OF New York Yankees A+ 20 .243/.322, 23 HRs, 18 SBs 2020
93. Anthony Alford OF Toronto Blue Jays AAA/MLB 24 .247/.328, 17 HRs, 22 SBs Early 2019
94. Corey Ray OF Milwaukee Brewers AA 24 .240/.311, 19 HRs, 21 SBs Late 2019
95. Monte Harrison OF Miami Marlins AA 23 .234/.307, 18 HRs, 20 SBs 2020
96. Eric Pardinho SP Toronto Blue Jays ROK 17 3.93 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 182 K’s in 200 innings 2021
97. DL Hall SP Baltimore Orioles A 20 4.06 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 184 K’s in 200 innings 2020
98. Daz Cameron OF Detroit Tigers AAA 21 .269/.343, 16 HRs, 17 SBs 2020
99. Nick Solak 2B Tampa Bay Rays AAA 23 .277/.342, 16 HRs, 12 SBs Late 2019
100. Drew Waters OF Atlanta Braves A+ 19 .268/.319, 18 HRs, 14 SBs 2021
101. Brandon Marsh OF Los Angeles Angels A+ 20 .258/.338, 18 HRs, 14 SBs 2020
102. Xavier Edwards 2B/SS San Diego Padres A- 19 .276/.338, 6 HRs, 30 SBs 2022
103. Bubba Thompson OF Texas Rangers A 20 .243/.298, 16 HRs, 22 SBs 2022
104. Jordyn Adams OF Los Angeles Angels ROK 18 .249/.334, 14 HRs, 26 SBs 2023
105. Joey Wentz SP Atlanta Braves A+ 21 4.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 176 K’s in 200 innings 2020
106. Cionel Perez SP Houston Astros AAA/MLB 22 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 180 K’s in 200 innings Mid 2019
107. Andres Gimenez SS New York Mets AA 20 .273/.336, 12 HRs, 13 SBs 2020
108. Jeisson Rosario OF San Diego Padres A 18 .278/.357, 15 HRs, 17 SBs 2021
109. Dalton Varsho C Arizona Diamondbacks A+ 21 .271/.333, 16 HRs, 11 SBs 2021
110. Leody Tavares OF Texas Rangers A+ 20 .269/.317, 13 HRs, 14 SBs 2020
111. Luis Garcia SS Washington Nationals A+ 18 .279/.316, 9 HRs, 14 SBs 2021
112. Ronaldo Hernandez C Tampa Bay Rays A 20 .264/.311, 21 HRs, 3 SBs 2022
113. Sean Reid-Foley SP Toronto Blue Jays AAA/MLB 23 4.11 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 201 K’s in 200 innings Mid 2019
114. Shed Long 2B Cincinnati Reds AA 23 .262/.328, 17 HRs, 10 SBs Late 2019
115. Kevin Smith SS/3B Toronto Blue Jays A+ 22 .255/.311, 18 HRs, 10 SBs 2020
116. Akil Baddoo OF Minnesota Twins A 20 .253/.340, 13 HRs, 18 SBs 2021
117. Jeter Downs SS Cincinnati Reds A 20 .266/.335, 15 HRs, 12 SBs 2021
118. Khalil Lee OF Kansas City Royals AA 20 .244/.340, 18 HRs, 11 SBs Late 2019
119. Julio Pablo Martinez OF Texas Rangers A- 22 .248/.341, 14 HRs, 18 SBs 2021
120. Luis Rengifo 2B/SS Los Angeles Angels AAA 21 .264/.331, 8 HRs, 18 SBs Late 2019
121. Esteury Ruiz 2B San Diego Padres A 19 .245/.309, 19 HRs, 12 SBs 2022
122. Joey Bart C San Francisco Giants A- 21 .251/.317 21 HRs, 2 SBs 2021
123. Tony Santillan SP Cincinnati Reds AA 21 4.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 183 K’s in 200 innings 2020
124. Austin Hays OF Baltimore Orioles AA 23 .267/.303, 24 HRs, 3 SBs Mid 2019
125. Elehuris Montero 3B St. Louis Cardinals A+ 20 .269/.333, 23 HRs, 1 SB 2021
126. Seth Beer 1B/DH Houston Astros A+ 22 .260/.338, 24 HRs, 1 SB 2021
127. Cavan Biggio 2B/OF Toronto Blue Jays AA 23 .253/.364, 21 HRs, 5 SBs Late 2019
128. Myles Straw OF Houston Astros AAA/MLB 23 .270/.343, 1 HR, 31 SBs Mid-Late 2019
129. Seuly Matias OF Kansas City Royals A 20 .231/.294, 32 HRs, 3 SBs 2022
130. Zack Collins C Chicago White Sox AA 23 .236/.357, 24 HRs, 1 SB Late 2019
131. Stephen Gonsalves SP Minnesota Twins AAA 24 4.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 174 K’s in 200 innings Early-Mid 2019
132. Gavin Lux 2B/SS Los Angeles Dodgers AA 20 .271/.343, 17 HRs, 8 SBs 2020
133. Adam Haseley OF Philadelphia Phillies AA 22 .276/.335, 16 HRs, 7 SBs Late 2019
134. Yusniel Diaz OF Baltimore Orioles AA 21 .273/.346, 15 HRs, 5 SBs Late 2019
135. Josh Naylor 1B San Diego Padres AA 21 .278/.341, 19 HRs, 1 SB 2020
136. Cole Winn SP Texas Rangers ROK 18 3.90 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 184 K’s in 200 innings 2022
137. Grant Lavigne 1B Colorado Rockies ROK 19 .263/.346, 24 HRs, 5 SBs 2022
138. Malcom Nunez 3B St. Louis Cardinals ROK 17 .272/.343, 22 HRs, 2 SBs 2023
139. Braxton Garrett SP Miami Marlins A 21 4.07 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 184 K’s in 200 innings 2021
140. Jordan Groshans SS/3B Toronto Blue Jays ROK 18 .263/.336, 18 HRs, 3 SBs 2022
141. Mark Vientos 3B New York Mets ROK 18 .268/.340, 19 HRs, 1 SB 2022
142. Kolby Allard SP Atlanta Braves AAA/MLB 21 4.08 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 154 K’s in 200 innings Early-Mid 2019
143. Heliot Ramos OF San Francisco Giants A 19 .239/.302, 23 HRs, 9 SBs 2021
144. Hudson Potts 3B San Diego Padres AA 19 .248/.301, 22 HRs, 2 SBs 2020
145. Isan Diaz 2B Miami Marlins AAA 22 .238/.337, 22 HRs, 6 SBs Late 2019
146. Will Smith C Los Angeles Dodgers AAA 23 .242/.332, 18 HRs, 3 SBs Late 2019
147. Oneil Cruz SS/3B Pittsburgh Pirates A 19 .240/.309, 20 HRs, 6 SBs 2021
148. Dakota Hudson SP St. Louis Cardinals AAA/MLB 24 4.12 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 150 K’s in 200 innings Early 2019
149. Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B Pittsburgh Pirates AA 21 .273/.340, 14 HRs, 7 SBs 2020
150. Jose Suarez SP Los Angeles Angels AAA 20 4.18 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 183 K’s in 200 innings Late 2019

Players also considered for the list in no particular order:

Cal Quantrill, Albert Abreu, Christian Pache, William Contreras, Beau Burrows, Nick Gordon, Alex Faedo, Chance Adams, Blake Rutherford, Cal Quantrill, Anderson Espinoza, Sandy Alcantara, Brent Rooker, Jose Siri, MJ Melendez, Alec Hansen, Miguel Amaya, Chris Shaw, Andrew Knizer, Bobby Bradley, Conner Scott, Kyler Murray, Lazaro Armenteros, D.J Peters, Ronnie Mauricio, Tyler Freeman, Luis Oviedo, Brayan Rocchio, D’Shawn Knowles, Nick Neidert, Antonio Cabello, Enyel De Los Santos and more!

Adam Garland

Adam is a marketing professional 9-5, but a fan and nerd of the beautiful game of baseball 24/7. The Dynasty Manager here at Pitcher List, he's known for his "Going Deep" articles on both MLB and MiLB players and has a strong reputation of identifying valuable players before the consensus. His passion though is MLB prospects, and he loves digging into scouting reports and dissecting the stats of prospects trying to understand what they mean. He plays in multiple dynasty leagues of varying sizes, and he hopes he can help with yours! He's also always up to talk baseball/prospects with anyone, so please don't hesitate to strike up a conversation!

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Comments


tommy

nice list and comments in your article
I’m in a 12 team dynasty league with 12 keepers 7×7 INCLUDES holds

10 prospects
4 single a spots ..
3 quad aaaa can stash for 1 calendar year

its offseason so i am able to stash on my espn roster till draft day

your comments would be appreciated.. top 10 is what i would keep today ..
rankings are mostly from rotowire and YOUR list until further updated lists become available

kristian robinson and morejon are safe and stashed in single a for 1 year .
Winker will be on my mlb roster march 31 as his quad aaaa elgibilty expires
Buttrey i stashed for now hoping he’s a usefull reliever sometime next year

single a
kristian robinson #29
adrian morejon #123 / 46 mlb

quad aaaa
gohara #132 / 78 mlb
jesse winker
ty buttrey

triple aaa

1 – victor robles MLB ROSTER
2- wander franco
3- whitley #6 / 8 mlb MLB ROSTER
4- josh james #52 / 95 mlb MLB ROSTER
5 – victor victor
6- d’shawn knowles #59
7- kevin smith #72/116 pl/
8 – hudson potts #49/77 raz/145 pl/
9 – bubba thompson #58/104 pl/ mlb roster
10 – tyler freeman #70 mlb roster

11-bryce wilson #53 / 96 mlb/75 pl/ mlb roster

dl hall #59/98 pl mlb roster
tirso ornelas #79/83 raz prospect roster
patrick wisdom 3b #85 mlb roster
mark vientos #88/143 pl/ mlb roster
logan allen p #96 /76 mlb/87 pl mlb roster
daz cameron #98/99 pl/ mlb roster
marco luciano #107 triple aaa
jeremiah jackson #104 triple aaa
jasrodo chis #101 triple aaa
grant lavigne #158/139 pl/ triple aaa

framber valdez
reid-foley #141/11

Adam Garland

Interesting situation, a number of intriguing prospects here to consider! My first question is can you move players from your currrent prospect list to your Single-A or AAAA spots? If so, I think there’s some worthwhile options like Tirso Ornelas, Mark Vientos, or Grant Lavigne to hold that allow you to keep more than those 10 (you seemingly have spots opening up with Winker coming off AAAA and only 2 listed as Single-A players.

For the 10, I would go with:

1. Victor Robles
2. Wander Franco
3.Forrest Whitley
4. Bryse Wilson
5. Josh James
6. Kevin Smith
7. Bubba Thompson
8. Daz Cameron
9. Victor Victor
10. DL Hall/Sean Reid Foley.

Victor Victor is a wildcard. Scouting reports suggest a profile of 50/55 hit, 45 game power, and 60 run which projects to roughly .260-.270 with 12-15 HRs, and the upside of probably 20ish SBs. If that’s the case, that slots him in around Travis Swaggerty and Jahmai Jones in the upper 70’s but I just don’t know how the SB potential will transfer and that gives me concern. He did steal 40 bases against 10 CS in 290 PAs two years ago in Cuba but I’m not sure how transferable that is to North America and the majors. The scouting comp most often attached to Mesa has been Albert Almora who isn’t the highest regarded fantasy player.

Hope that was helpful, and I’m happy to answer any further questions you may have on the situation!

Harley Earl

Just curious, what are you thoughts about Garrett Hampson for next season?

Also, is this ranking based more on his likelihood of being in the majors next season or is more heavily weighted toward his skill level? This is the highest I’ve seen him, although he appears to have moved up a lot of rankings over the last six months.

Adam Garland

I’ll probably end up as one of the higher guys on Hampson but I think his skillset is very fantasy friendly! First off, he’s got well above-average contact skills highlighted by a 7% swinging-strike rate at AAA and 5.2% swinging-strike rate at AA. His 10.4% swinging-strike rate in a small sample in the majors is encouraging too and likely will go down with more MLB experience. For reference, MLB average last year was 10.7%, so even with some regression in his transition up to the majors, he projects as a very good contact hitter. 2nd, Hampson can run! He’s often graded as a 70-grade runner, and he has the instincts to use that speed effectively. He stole 38 bags last year split between AA/AAA/and the majors with just 5 CS. The year before he stole 51 bags against 14 CS at A+. He’s efficient on the basepaths and I think there’s a good chance he’s a 30 SB guy in the majors with upside for 40. Add in that he’s not bereft of power, hitting 10 HRs last year split between 3 levels and 8 the year before, and the thought of Coors Field helping him a bit in the majors in that department and he projects as a fantasy monster in the mold of a Starling Marte, Lorenzo Cain, Jean Segura type at 2B/SS.

Now I get the concern over playing time for Hampson, he’s going to have to fend off a few interesting and highly valued players in the organization like Brendan Rodgers, but I think Hampson will get the first chance as Rodgers looks to need a little more time in AAA currently. Hampson looks ready to be given a chance at 2B with DJ Lemahieu a likely goner in FA as he handled AAA well and even did well in the majors in a small sample size, and he could run with it if he proves himself capable. I also think there’s a good chance that Hampson gets an opportunity in the OF, particularly in CF as Charlie Blackmon is better off in a corner OF spot now and Cargo is likely gone as well. Dahl and Tapia both deserve to get their chance, but Dahl is likely a platoon option at this point:

.234/.258/.438 line with an elevated K rate against lefties this year for a 68 wRC+ .
286/.346/.568 line against righties this year for a 123 wRC+
Career history is similar
Interestingly, he’s been okay home against lefties riding a higher BAPIP but put up a -40 wRC+ on the road against lefties this year.

Right now, I see Hampson as a guy that will get an opportunity to win the 2B job out of camp, with some utility role that allows him to get some time in the OF as well sort of like how the Cubs have managed Ben Zobrist. The ranking is solely on skill rather than opportunity btw, I just think his skillset is quite fantasy friendly. Interested to see how it all plays out next year!

Nick G

I agree with most of your points, but it’s hard for me to envision Dahl as a platoon option. If you are a lefty, and your-weak side platoon gets you a 411 slugging percentage, that’s pretty good considering it’s only in 25-30% of your ABs. It’s also impressive considering his age and lack of MLB experience. One other thing to consider is that Dahl didn’t exhibit a biglefty weakness in the minors.

A lot will depend on how Colorado rounds out their roster, but given Dahl’s bat skill, age and positional versatility in the outfield, I think he’s an every day guy.

Harley Earl

Adam, thanks so much for the writeup on Hampson! Great stuff here. I didn’t realize that about his swinging-strike rate or his high contact rate. With those kinds of rates, you’re right, he should translate into a strong MLB hitter with a nice/high on-base percentage. Love the speed and the steals and really like that he’s got some pop in the bat too. He should benefit from a lot of Coors-friendly doubles and triples. And 100+ runs is almost a gimme as the leadoff hitter in Colorado. Sign me up!!! I’ve got one share of him in a dynasty league, so I hope he makes it happen. Also, with the possibility of Arrenado leaving after 2019, that makes me believe Rodgers could be slotted at 3B or perhaps Story could move to 3B. Yeah, should be very interesting to see how it all plays out but I do like his chances! Thanks!

Ryan

Where would Japanese pitcher Yusei Kikuchi rank in this list, roughly? Sounds like he’ll be posted this winter.

Adam Garland

Interesting question! I have a future MLB imports article planned that will go more in-depth on Kikuchi and other intriguing potential Pacific-Asian MLB postings. Kikuchi is left-handed pitcher, he had a 3.08 ERA with 153 strikeouts (23.4 K%) and 45 walks in 23 starts and 163.2 innings in 2018. Scouting reports suggest that he has 4 offerings, highlighted by a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90’s and a good changeup. He also has a slider and changeup that aren’t as sharp and consistent as the fastball/changeup combo but flash in certain games and he’s become more adept at using them in recent years. That sort of pitch mix gives him a chance to be a #2 SP right away, and the overall pitch mix looks something like Gerrit Cole in Pittsburgh. That’s an easy top 50 prospect!

Hope that was helpful!

Brian

Sean Murphy? I’m guessing you rank him behind Will Smith and Zach Collins, but maybe he is in the large clump of players that is 100-150? Seems like he has a reasonable defensive path to MLB, but lower offensive upside?

Adam Garland

I think you nailed it with Sean Murphy. Very simply, he’s just behind Will Smith and Zack Collins among catchers in terms of fantasy outlook at the moment and he’s just outside that 150 clump of players to me despite the obvious defensive strengths that push him up on traditional prospect lists. He’s consistently shown quality contact skills with good strikeout rates and above-average swinging-strike rates at every stop. He can also take a walk and should post solid OBP numbers which will make him a valuable real life catcher. The concern is the power upside at the moment. He’s got good raw pop with many 55 grades, but it plays down in games due to a low launch angle currently. He’s consistently put up GB rates around 50% give or take, and if that continues than he may have a tough time reaching the seats more than in the low-double digits. He may be a guy that’s suited for a gradual launch angle change at some point to tap into his power more but currently, he’s a higher floor/moderate upside C that is just outside the top 150 imo.

Nicholas Gerli

Good job on this! A lot of work must have gone in.

For the inevitable nitpicks:

-I have Tucker above Robles on my list. Tucker is such a complete hitter and had a dominating AAA season. From June 1st onward, Tucker posted a 198 wRC+ and 388 / 444 / 718 triple slash in AAA. Robles hasn’t approached that level of production in the high minors yet and they’re basically the same age. Robles might have some latent power potential that hasn’t really shown itself yet, but I think Tucker is a safe bet to be the more well-rounded and complete hitter, with some steal upside as well.

-I’d have Fernando Tatis in the top five, and definitely above Lewis and Bichette. The type of power output he showed in the Texas league (fourth in ISO, second in wRC+) at 19 is fairly unprecedented. I think his MLB power potential is 35+ HR fairly easily.

-Although it’s more speculative given his age, I think Franco needs to be in the top 10. The plate discipline he showed in rookie ball this year is exceedingly rare (1.42 BB/K), and he did it at 17, three to five years younger than most of his competition.

Adam Garland

Thanks for the kind words, I appreciate it! I also appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts on the rankings and prospects, some great points here and I love the takes!

I definitely see the case for Kyle Tucker over Victor Robles, Tucker has done nothing but rake since getting to full-season ball including dominating down the stretch in AAA as you mentioned, and Robles has struggled with injuries and has seen his stock fall in some eyes. I ranked them accordingly based mostly on power/speed upside at this point and you can see why I ranked Robles a touch above simply by looking at the projections of the two. I believe in the speed of Robles making more of an impact (legit 70 run, even 75 run grades) and has shown fairly aggressive baserunning to rack up 86 SBs over the last 3 years (72.2% success rate) despite the injuries. Tucker has also shown aptitude on the base paths with 74 SBs (74% success rate). He’s done so with more PA’s though and many scouts are projecting his speed tool to take a step back into below-average range (45/40 future grades) as he further fills out which will put more importance on his bat to return fantasy goodness. Tucker should easily have the edge in power but I don’t think Robles will be a slouch. Robles hit 58 extra base hits in 2017 and has the bat speed and contact skills to run into his fair share and I believe he does have some latent power coming. Overall it’s super close, and really it’s like trying to decide between a Lorenzo Cain/Starling Marte type and an Alex Bregman type (Bregman showed better contact skills but is less BAPIP happy compared to Tucker). There’s a case to be made for either really!

Regarding Tatis Jr., I may be one of the lower guys on him despite really loving his power/speed upside while potentially playing SS. My concern is the contact profile which at the moment, I feel like many are projecting heavily on based on his age. To date in his minor league career, he is yet to show league average contact skills. He posted a 27.7% K rate last year at AA and supported it with an ugly 16.5% swinging-strike rate which is well below-average and would have ranked 5th worst in the Southern League if he had enough PAs to qualify. For reference, MLB average last year was 10.7%, and swinging-strike rate is generally pretty telling about a prospect. Take a look at similarly hyped prospects like Byron Buxton and Yoan Moncada, both showed poor swinging-strike rate in the minors and have had similar poor swinging-strike rates in the majors. Now it’s obviously not all doom and gloom, Tatis Jr. showed improvement as he gained more AA experience before his injury, and he’s still just 19 while having played at a much younger age than normal for each level so there’s lots of reason to project on his contact skills. He also has many high BAPIP traits including a high line-drive rate, a reasonable use of the whole field, and quality speed to help him beat out groundballs that all should help him post quality slash lines despite potential contact issues. Still, I simply think the guys I ranked in front of him show a safer contact profile while also showing impressive power/speed profiles and that’s why I have Tatis Jr. ranked where he is.

Franco is super interesting to me, has that early Juan Soto look with incredible plate discipline and power at such a young age. I definitely think there’s a case to be made that he pushes the back end of the top 10 but he’s still just 17 and hasn’t reached full-season ball yet. Ranking a guy that early in his development at 15 is pretty rare and really impressive, and there’s so much still to come for him and that has me playing things somewhat safe with him. The profile looks really safe though and I think it’s very likely he’s a universal top 10 prospect by mid-season 2019.

Nick G

These are all fair points.

Looking deeper into Tucker you’re probably right about his stolen bases subsiding. His sprint speed was in JD Davis and Evan Gattis territory with the Astros this year, so against MLB pick off moves and catcher arms he probably doesn’t get the green light.

I’m not so concerned about Tatis’ contact considering how young he is. He was 19 years and 3 months old when the 2018 season started. The Texas league is notoriously pitcher friendly. When Buxton was the same age he was still in rookie ball, and didn’t log a fullish AA season until he was 22. Similarly, Moncada was 20/21 when he hit AA. Tatis certainly has more variance than Lewis and Bichette in his projections, but his upside is much higher. I’ll probably be stashing him at the outset next year.

Harley Earl

Just curious, how long before Atlanta calls Austin Riley up? Makes team out of spring training? middle of April? July? If Camargo starts off slow, I don’t see them waiting too long on this guy. He’s proven to be a beast when healthy.

Adam Garland

Good question! As you can see from the list, I anticipate Austin Riley to get the call to the majors mid-season this year, very likely after the Super 2 cutoff in June. Right now, I don’t think he’s ready to make the team out of spring training, he just hasn’t shown the type of contact skills at the highest level of the minors to have enough belief that he can hit the ground running in the majors yet imo. He spent the majority of the year in AAA this past season (324 PAs) and managed a 29.3% K rate and supported it with a very below-average 14.7% swinging-strike rate (note that MLB average this past year was 10.7%) which suggests that he would be overmatched in the majors currently. Now Riley has consistently produced great BAPIP numbers and he has good BAPIP traits including a high line-drive rate, the ability to use the whole field, a quality eye at the plate to avoid swinging at too many pitches that he can’t handle, and the ability to impact the baseball to all fields when he does make contact and so he may not need to be a great contact hitter to produce quality slash lines in the majors. The contact skills do concern me though as there are not many comparables with those sort of contact skills and BAPIP reliance right now in the majors. Him going back to AAA and honing his contact skills and approach while also securing the team benefits of holding him back in the minors (extra year of control and potentiall $ savings) seems like the likely outcome at this point. That means sometime between Mid-June and September is his likely ETA.

Harley Earl

Thanks for the reply. That makes a lot of sense. I can never remember when the cutoff days are for holding a player down and retaining them for an extra year of service time. Some guys go in the middle of April like Kris Bryant, some guys get held until June like George Springer. I think you’re evaluation of the situation is highly likely. Seems like honing his skills in AAA wouldn’t hurt him at all and it would protect the Braves for another year. I’m going to hope he gets the call sometime around July. If he doesn’t get it until September, I’m afraid he will probably have struggled. Thank!

Jake

I know Willie Calhoun is over limits, but what are your thoughts on him going forward? How do you project his SwSt%, K%, can he hit lefties, and any guess if he breaks camp with 2019 Rangers. Thanks.

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