Tuesday features an 11-game slate highlighted by the Dodgers’ trip to Coors Field. For pitching, Brandon Woodruff leads the way as he and the Brewers host the Cardinals. Let’s take a look at what else is in store for tonight.
Top Tier Pitching
| Opp | Salary DK/FD | ML | IP | K-BB% | CSW% | SwStr% | WHIP | ERA | xERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alek Manoah | at TB | $9,500/ $9,600 | 103 | 93 | 18.5% | 27.8% | 12% | 1.03 | 3.39 | 3.46 |
| Brandon Woodruff | vs STL | $10,400/ $10,200 | -222 | 169.1 | 23.4% | 29.7% | 12.8% | 0.96 | 2.55 | 3.28 |
| Kevin Gausman | at SD | $10,100/ $9,900 | 110 | 175 | 22.5% | 30.8% | 14.9% | 1.03 | 2.78 | 3.43 |
| José Urquidy | at LAA | $9,000/ $8,700 | -224 | 90.2 | 17.1% | 28.4% | 11.7% | 0.98 | 3.38 | 3.59 |
The Brewers have a massive 10-game lead in the loss column in the NL Central, so I do wonder if Craig Counsell and company might begin to limit their starters the rest of the way. Brandon Woodruff threw 90 pitches his last time out against the Tigers so that seems like a reasonable expectation tonight. He gets the Cardinals who have a modest .308 team wOBA on the year (tied-20th).
José Urquidy has been excellent this year holding opposing batters to just a .290 xwOBA along with a minuscule 4.8% BB rate. The only complaint is pitch count: His totals over the last three starts beginning with his most recent are 81, 70, and 71. The Astros are massive home favorites tonight (-224) against the Angels and Packy Naughton.
Alek Manoah just tortured this Rays lineup his last time out, firing eight scoreless innings with a single hit as the only blemish. His slider carried him as it returned a massive 50% CSW. Now as he’s facing the Rays for a second straight time, I get the feeling that they might be a little more ready for him this time around. This game is basically a pick ’em as the scene shifts to the Trop for his start tonight. Kevin Gausman got his splitter back his last time out against these same Padres as it returned a 50% whiff rate in that start. He wasn’t terribly efficient though, as he needed 100 pitches to get through five. He seems like a pivot off Woodruff for tournaments.
Mid-Tier/Value Pitching
| Opp | Salary DK/FD | ML | IP | K-BB% | CSW% | SwStr% | WHIP | ERA | xERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Montgomery | vs TEX | $8,300/ $8,800 | -242 | 144 | 16.9% | 28.9% | 14.0% | 1.25 | 3.63 | 4.08 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | vs NYM | $8,600/ $8,500 | -138 | 142.1 | 20.5% | 27.8% | 11.5% | 1.38 | 5.00 | 3.67 |
The value tier is slim today, but two options that stand out are Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez. Montgomery is coming off a career-high 12 strikeouts in his last game against the Orioles (35.4% CSW). There is upside worth chasing here at below $9,000 on both sites. The Rangers team wOBA is dead last at .291. Rodriguez seems to have been on the wrong side of variance this year as his ERA stands at an even 5.00 on the year versus a much more appealing 3.67 xERA and an impressive 20.5 K-BB%. He was strong his last time out, going six innings while allowing just one earned run along with six strikeouts (22.4% CSW) against the Mariners. He’ll face the Mets tonight, who have been a below-average team offensively this season with a .308 wOBA (tied-2oth).
Bats and Stacks
- LAD (6.6) at COL Antonio Senzatela (RHP) 11.7 K-BB%, .318 xwOBA, 1.29 WHIP, 4.37 xERA: The funny thing is that Senzatela has actually pitched better at home in his career (567 IP) as opposed to the road with an ERA of 4.66 and 4.88 respectively. Still, I think we have to side with the Dodgers offense here. Corey Seager (.381 xwOBA this year) sticks out like a sore thumb at $4,600 on DraftKings. Expect a ton of traffic here, but it’s hard to argue against given the strength of this lineup and the setting at Coors Field. On the flip side of this game, does anyone want to pick on Julio Urías? Heck, no! But, hey for tournaments you can definitely consider some Rockies bats too: C.J. Cron, Garrett Hampson, Trevor Story, and Brendan Rodgers are at playable prices on both sites if you’re feeling contrarian.
- NYY (5.3) vs TEX Dane Dunning (RHP) 14.5 K-BB%, .324 xwOBA, 1.43 WHIP, 4.56 xERA: Aaron Judge (.404 xwOBA) is the top bat here at $5,100 on DraftKings. However, some of the other Yankee bats seem too cheap tonight on DraftKings. Anthony Rizzo (.344 xwOBA) is just $3,700. Joey Gallo (.358 xwOBA) is a strong play at $4,000 going against a low K% RHP like Dunning who should throw around 40-50 pitches before giving way to the Rangers pen. Luke Voit (.361 xwOBA) is also very cheap on DraftKings at $3,200 if he happens to crack the lineup.
- PHI (n/a) vs BAL (TBD): The Orioles have yet to tab an official starter but I think it’s safe to say that it’ll be an advantage for Phillies bats. That starts and ends with Bryce Harper (.432 xwOBA) who is having an MVP type season and is one of the night’s top plays. J.T. Realmuto (.330 xwOBA) is an affordable option at catcher with upside at $4,100 on DraftKings. The same can be said for the other side of this game. The Phillies haven’t posted an official starter yet. If you’re looking to be creative in tournaments, there are some potential cheap Orioles in Anthony Santander (.329 xwOBA) and Austin Hays (.316 xwOBA).
- SF at SD (TBD): The Padres have yet to announce a starter for tonight’s game. Evan Longoria (.378 xwOBA) and Tommy La Stella (.334 xwOBA) are potential values on DraftKings at $3,400 each.
- ATL (5.4) at ARI Luke Weaver (RHP) 14.5 K-BB%, .328 xwOBA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.69 xERA: Atlanta is another team with an implied total well over five runs. Freddie Freeman (.415 xwOBA) is an excellent spend at first base and he may go overlooked with a game at Coors drawing attention. Jorge Soler (.353 xwOBA), who hit leadoff last night, is a little too cheap at $3,800 on DraftKings. Austin Riley (.363 xwOBA) is a very strong option at third base at just $4,400 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel.
- TOR (4.2) at TB Drew Rasmussen (RHP) 16.2 K-BB%, .297 xwOBA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.77 xERA: It’s been a few days since the Jays stack has popped and given that they’re on the road in Tampa against an opener of sorts in Rasmussen, they should be under represented tonight. They are a fun stack for tournaments as we know this lineup can easily break a slate.
- MIL (4.5) vs STL Jake Woodford (RHP) 8.3 K-BB%, .337 xwOBA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.98 xERA: This Woodford fellow isn’t too good, so Brewers bats are definitely worth considering. And I’d guess that they won’t draw much attention tonight on an 11-game slate so that adds to the appeal in tournaments. Willy Adames (.322 xwOBA) was having an excellent time with the Brewers following his trade from Tampa. He returned last night, following just about a two week stint on the IL with a quad injury. Christian Yelich (.330 xwOBA) is having a dreadful season, but he’s at least an interesting dart for tournaments at $4,400 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel. Daniel Vogelbach (.326 xwOBA) is a potential punt play at first with power.
- HOU (5.5) at LAA Packy Naughton (LHP) 3.9 K-BB%, .321 xwOBA, 1.62 WHIP, 4.47 xERA: Naughton has made just three starts, but so far he’s allowed a lot of base runners with just a 14.3% K rate. In 56.2 IP with Triple-A Salt Lake, he posted an underwhelming 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, so it’s not hard to imagine one of baseball’s best offenses putting some runs on the board. Alex Bregman (.332 xwOBA) and Carlos Correa (.374 xwOBA) stand out at $4,200 and $4,500 respectively on DraftKings. José Altuve (.328 xwOBA) will cost you a bit more at $5,600 as the lead off man. Yulieski Gurriel (.321 xwOBA) has probably over performed a bit this year to get to a .314 batting average, but he’s playable at $4,100 on DraftKings as part of stack. I’m a huge fan of Kyle Tucker (.400 xwOBA); in spite of the lefty/lefty match up he’s an easy play at just $4,300 on DraftKings in any format. And, of course, Yordan Alvarez (.385 xwOBA) has as much power upside as anyone. Along with the Dodgers, the Astros look like one of the stronger stacks on the board tonight.
Value Bats
| Position | Opp | DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays | OF | at PHI (TBD) | $3,200 | $2,900 |
| Joey Gallo | OF | vs TEX (Dunning) | $4,000 | $3,300 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 1B | vs TEX (Dunning) | $3,700 | $3,600 |
| Tommy La Stella | 2B/3B | at SD (TBD) | $3,400 | $2,700 |
| Evan Longoria | 3B | at SD (TBD) | $3,400 | $3,400 |
| Willy Adames | SS | vs STL (Woodford) | $3,800 | $2,800 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 1B | vs STL (Woodford) | $2,700 | $2,300 |
| Jarred Kelenic | OF | at OAK (Blackburn) | $3,300 | $3,000 |
| Jorge Soler | OF | at ARI (Weaver) | $3,800 | $3,200 |
| Andrew McCutchen | OF | vs BAL (TBD) | $3,200 | $3,200 |
| Brad Miller | 1B | vs BAL (TBD) | $3,300 | $2,400 |
| Odúbel Herrera | OF | vs BAL (TBD) | $3,600 | $2,600 |