After last night’s respite, Tuesday brings a huge slate with all thirty teams in action and plenty of pitching options to sift through.
Top SP: Shane Bieber CLE ($10,300 DK, $11,500 FD) at STL
Carlos Rodón leads tonight’s loaded pitching slate with a 31.2% K-BB% on the year but he gets a less than ideal draw against the Blue Jays. Shane Bieber isn’t too far behind, though, with a 26.7% K-BB% backed by a 34.4% CSW. And he’ll have the added benefit of pitching in the N.L. tonight against a Cardinals offense that has put up just a .293 wOBA against RHP (24th). Bieber brings an excellent floor and ceiling in terms of pitch count, which’s difficult to match as he’s gone under 100 pitches just once this year, back on Opening Day while going past 110 in three starts. Cleveland is installed as strong road favorites tonight (-161) against the struggling righty Carlos Martínez.
The biggest favorite on the board tonight is Tyler Glasnow and the Rays (-195) who are hosting the Nationals. Similar to Bieber, Glasnow has been sharp through 12 starts with a 27.2% K-BB% and 33.4% CSW. He has been efficient as well, going through seven innings in three of his past five starts. The Nationals have been a below-average offense this season so far against RHP with a .299 team wOBA (18th). Both Bieber and Glasnow are tremendous options and very close, I would give the slight edge to Bieber though given that his game is in the N.L. and he has a better pitch count ceiling.
It’s not a great matchup against the Braves, regardless Aaron Nola (21.6% K-BB%, 30.7% CSW 2021) looks like a fantastic value on FanDuel at just $8,400. With the aforementioned Glasnow and Bieber at the top and some good options all around on a wide-open 15-game slate, Nola could be a little overlooked tonight especially considering that he gets the Braves. He’s an excellent option if you’re looking to save a little in the top tier and is a strong home favorite tonight (-155).
Value SP: Pablo López, MIA ($8,700 DK, $9,600 FD) vs COL
This is an interesting slate where this doesn’t look to be, on paper at least, a lot of expensive, high-priority bats. In which case, for a second SP, I’d strongly consider Pablo López (18% K-BB%, 27% CSW 2021). The right-hander has been excellent this year with a 2.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 12 starts and has shown the strikeout upside we’re looking for getting eight or more K’s in three starts this year, most notably nine in his last start against the Blue Jays backed by an impressive 32.2% CSW. The key here, of course, is a matchup against the road Rockies which gives López a heightened ceiling, just take a look at what Anthony DeSclafani did to them twice this year.
If you’re looking to spend down a little at SP 2, either pitcher in the Mariners/Tigers game is on the board. I’d give the slight edge to Matthew Boyd (12.6% K-BB%, 27.9% CSW 2021) given that he’s a slight home favorite (-113). The Mariners are an offense that we’ve been picking on all year. Against lefties they’ve mustered a .280 team wOBA, second-worst to, you guessed it, the Tigers at .277.
Andrew Heaney is also another option in the lower tier. He’s shown excellent strikeout ability but with that comes his tendency for gopheritis making him a volatile tournament play. He’s a strong home favorite (-145) against the Royals who have just a .297 team wOBA (22nd), although they don’t strike out much either at 21.3% (fifth lowest).
Honorable Mention: Matthew Boyd, DET ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD) vs SEA; Sonny Gray, CIN ($8,400 DK, $8,000 FD) vs MIL; Marco Gonzales, SEA ($7,600 DK, $7,100 FD) at DET; Andrew Heaney, LAA ($7,100 DK, $8,100 FD) vs KC.
OF Jesse Winker, CIN ($4,600 DK, $4,400 FD) vs MIL
The Reds get one of the weaker pitchers of the night in Adrian Houser who has an 11.1% K-BB% backed by a 7.5% swinging K rate and 22.6% CSW%. For his career, Houser has allowed a .357 wOBA to LHB as opposed to just .284 against RHB. At home run friendly Great American Ball Park against a pitcher who has struggled against lefties, this lines up as another smash spot for Jesse Winker who has been nothing short of superb this year with a .455 wOBA and .412 xwOBA.
Anthony Rendon is another hitter worth mentioning too as his salary has fallen a bit after a quiet start. Royals’ starter Kris Bubic has done well so far in limiting opposing RHB to just a .310 wOBA but I think it makes sense to lean towards Rendon and his career .372 wOBA against the unproven lefty.
Honorable Mentions: Anthony Rendon, 3B ($4,400 DK, $3,500 FD) vs KC; Cody Bellinger, 1B ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD) at PIT; Pete Alonso, 1B ($5,800 DK, $3,500 FD) at BAL; José Ramírez, 3B ($5,100 DK, $4,000 FD) at STL; J.T. Realmuto, C ($4,700 DK, $3,300 FD) vs PHI.
1B Matt Olson, OAK ($5,200 DK, $3,900 FD) vs ARI
To Oakland we go, where the A’s have one of the night’s better matchups against the Diamondbacks and rookie RHP Jon Duplantier. We haven’t seen much of Duplantier yet as injuries to the rotation have just recently thrust him into action, but so far through two appearances, he’s struggled with control including an 11.4% walk rate and just a 6.8% swinging K rate. In 2019, Duplantier wasn’t great either with just a 9.8% K-BB% and 1.55 WHIP through 36.2 innings. Enter Matt Olson who this year has slashed his K rate to just 16.5% while producing a .395 wOBA.
Randy Arozarena is an interesting play tonight. Given his modest production this year (.322 wOBA) he seems a little overpriced, on DraftKings at least, which could make him an interesting tournament play against Jon Lester who has allowed a .343 wOBA and .191 ISO to RHB going back to 2019.
Honorable Mentions: Fernando Tatís Jr, SS ($5,800 DK, $5,500 FD) vs CHC; Tommy Pham, OF ($4,500 DK, $3,000 FD) vs CHC; Randy Arozarena, OF ($5,500 DK, $3,400 FD) vs WAS; Mark Canha, OF ($4,300 DK, $3,700 FD) vs ARI; Manny Machado, 3B ($4,100 DK, $3,400 FD) vs CHC.
Value Batter: SS Brandon Crawford, SF ($3,800 DK, $3,000 FD) at TEX
Jordan Lyles brings a 5.75 ERA (5.39 xERA), 1.52 WHIP, and a modest 12.2% K-BB% into tonight’s game so I think we can definitely look to the Giants’ lineup for some value. In which case Brandon Crawford makes sense. The veteran shortstop has been one of the season’s early surprises with a .374 wOBA (.376 xwOBA). Injuries to Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt have thrust him into the cleanup spot lately. Tonight he’ll be able to take advantage of Lyles who has allowed a .355 wOBA to LHB for his career. Lamonte Wade Jr and Alex Dickerson (just $2,200 on FanDuel) are a couple of other potential value lefty bats here that should also be hitting higher in the order.
Alec Bohm is having a tough season but we saw his potential last year as one of baseball’s better young hitters with a .381 wOBA and .363 xwOBA. His price has fallen to the point where he’s worth mentioning in tournaments at least. He’ll have the platoon advantage tonight as he takes on the lefty Drew Smyly who has been susceptible this year allowing a .379 xwOBA.
Honorable Mentions: Seth Brown, 1B/OF ($3,100 DK, $2,400 FD) vs ARI; Alec Bohm, 3B ($3,000 DK, $2,400 FD) vs PHI; Corey Dickerson, OF ($2,200 FD) vs COL; Wil Myers, OF ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD) vs. CHC; LaMonte Wade Jr, OF ($3,300 DK, $2,100 FD) at TEX; Alex Dickerson, OF ($2,200 FD) at TEX; Kyle Tucker, OF ($3,700 DK, $3,200 FD) at BOS; Gavin Lux, SS ($3,700 DK, $2,700 FD) at PIT.
Top Stack: PHI vs ATL (LHP Smyly)
This is a wide-open slate in terms of stacks. Considering weaker pitchers, Zach Davies is at the bottom of the board with just a 1.6% K-BB% this season. Meanwhile, we know what the Padres and Fernando Tatís Jr are capable of. Manny Machado is at a tempting price point on DraftKings if you’re hunting for one-offs. Adrian Houser is definitely a pitcher worth targeting against too given that the Reds have banged out 82 home runs so far (fifth). They could also be potentially getting Joey Votto back giving them another quality lefty bat while also lengthening their lineup. What do we do with Martín Pérez? He’s got a 3.09 ERA and 1.23 WHIP to his name so far but I suspect there could be some regression ticketed his way especially considering his opponent tonight. The Astros are definitely on the board for tournaments.
The Phillies, however, are the only team as of this writing to have an implied team total north of five runs. As mentioned earlier with Bohm, we should have no problem picking on Drew Smyly who, in addition to a modest 21.1% K rate, has already given up 14 home runs along with a .378 xwOBA. Although perhaps he brings it tonight, it is a revenge spot after all! In spite of the left-on-left matchup, Bryce Harper leads the way given his strength as an overall hitter. Smyly hasn’t been very good against lefties anyway, as he’s allowed a surprisingly high .370 wOBA and .339 ISO (!!) to them going back to 2019. Against righties, he’s allowed a .353 wOBA and .225 ISO during that span. So, Jean Segura (.327 career wOBA), Andrew McCutchen (.351), J.T. Realmuto (.337), Alec Bohm (.306), and Rhys Hoskins (.364) all carry heightened upside tonight.
Honorable Mentions: CIN vs MIL (Houser); OAK vs ARI (Duplantier); HOU at BOS (Pérez); SD vs CHC (Davies).
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)