Tuesday brings us a full slate with all thirty teams in action. And more importantly a reprieve from Coors Field.
The Top Tier
Aaron Nola has had the strikeouts working in his last two starts, piling up 11 against the Marlins his last time out (34.7% CSW) and 12 against the Mets prior to that (36.4% CSW). Meanwhile, the Cubs have now inched ahead of the Tigers for the worst team K rate against RHP at 26.8%.
Carlos Rodón, who has the second-best K-BB% on the slate, is the other potential pivot from deGrom; however, there could be some potential rain in Minnesota tonight putting that game in jeopardy.
Mid-Range/Value Tier Pitching
Dane Dunning and Jameson Taillon are your matchup plays here. For Taillon, one of his problems has been his split against lefties. There’s some hope tonight, though, as gets a Mariners lineup that doesn’t have much in the way of lefty power. The Yankees are substantial road favorites as they take on Justus Sheffield in a revenge spot. Taillon is on the board as one of the better potential values. For Dunning, it’s a similar situation as he faces a Tigers team that has struck out at a 26.4% clip against RHP, second worst trailing only the Cubs.
Pablo López probably has the strongest skills here from a run prevention standpoint, however, he gets the Dodgers who have the third highest team wOBA against RHP at .336. At the bottom of that split? The Pirates at .287, adding appeal to Ian Anderson who finds himself as one of the strongest road favorites on the board (-172).
Cash Game Bats
We await with bated breath for the Orioles to announce their mystery starter. In the meantime I’d feel pretty good that when the dust settles, the Jays will have the top implied run total on the board as the scene shifts to Camden Yards. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and company are the premier spends today, although it’ll come with a cost as we also have deGrom on the slate.
Going back to last season, José Ureña has allowed a .400 wOBA on the nose to LHB. And that comes with a 6.5% K rate against lefties too. Fire up Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe, who is an excellent value on FanDuel at $2,600.
Chad Kuhl’s 3.5% K-BB rate on the year shouldn’t inspire much confidence, leaving Atlanta as another top offense worth keying in, with an implied total of just under five runs.
Remember when Jake Arrieta was an ace? Yeah, I don’t either. The Phillies have an implied team total of just over five runs and after scoring a baker’s dozen last night the fuse is set yet again. What’s more, there could be some helpful wind blowing out in Wrigley. Arrieta has allowed a .386 xwOBA to opposing LHB the past two seasons. Bryce Harper makes almost too much sense tonight. Outside of Harper and Rhys Hoskins, the rest of this lineup is extremely affordable on DraftKings, in particular Andrew McCutchen and J.T. Realmuto stand out as clear bargains tonight.
GPP Bats
For tournaments, the Reds are an interesting stack against the inexperienced lefty Kris Bubic. Going back to his rookie year last season, Bubic has allowed an xwOBA of .350 or more to both lefties and righties. This year his xERA stands at 5.96, joining an allowed barrel rate of 10.9% and an 11.8% walk rate. The likes of Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suárez, Tyler Stephenson, and Aristides Aquino all have power upside, giving this lineup some potential to shake up tournament standings.
The Padres are another team to keep an eye on as they are set to face a Nats mystery starter. One other team of note could be the Yankees, as they’ll be facing Justus Sheffield who has allowed a .368 xwOBA to righties going back to last year. This year his K rate has dropped from 20.7% to just 17%, while allowing a copious amount of hard contact, so there is some definite appeal with the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, and Gary Sánchez in tournaments.
Value Bats
*Indicates tournament option
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