I realize that many people who read this are going to assume that this is a ranking of the best baseball players from the draft. It isn’t. This is a ranking of the best fantasy profiles in the draft for your keeper/dynasty league. For the most part, defense does not come into play unless the prospect has an iffy-enough evaluation at his current position to warrant a position change that would affect his value long-term.
When it comes to prospects, I generally value college players over high schoolers. They are closer to the majors and they likely to be more well-rounded. That said, if you’re looking for elite talent, there are arguments for both. Out of all the MVP winners since 2000 (if you win more than one, you are still only counted as one), 13 were drafted/signed out of high school, 11 were college or junior college players, and five were international signees. Cy Young Award winners are the opposite, with eight high schoolers winning the award, 17 college players, and four international signees.
Let’s get it on!
1. Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Buster Posey
Probably the easiest decision about a top prospect since Carlos Correa in 2012, Adley Rutschman is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field. He’s as close to a finished product as there is on this list. With elite defense/calling/leadership skills, an advanced bat, and a history of winning, whenever he signs his contract the Oregon State backstop will instantly be the best catching prospect in the minor leagues. But let’s not go overboard. Rutschman is as sure of a thing at catcher to come along since Posey, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be an MVP or a hall-of-famer-like Giants great. Still, it’s hard to ignore the similarities:
|Rutschman vs Posey (NCAA)||AVG||SLG||OPS||HR||BB||K|
|Buster Posey Sophomore Year (2007)||.382||.453||.973||3||32||27|
|Adley Rutschman Sophomore Year (2018)||.408||.628||1.133||9||53||40|
|Buster Posey Junior Year (2008)||.463||.566||1.445||26||57||29|
|Adley Rutschman Junior Year (2019)||.427||.772||1.356||16||69||36|
Both catchers, who were already elite in their sophomore years, took huge strides forward in power and plate discipline. Also, both catchers were a lock to stay behind the plate defensively. Rutschman’s skillset is so advanced that he will likely be one of those rare, fast-rising catchers that makes it into the majors in two years at the earliest but three years at the latest. I would be worried about almost any other prospect in this draft going to the Orioles, but in this case, Rutschman is so good it doesn’t matter.
2. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Chicago White Sox, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Mike Sweeney (Non-Injury Prone)
What is Andrew Vaughn‘s floor? An .800 OPS. With a 70 hit tool and a 60 power tool, Vaughn is going to be able to get on base enough to always be a threat offensively, and he provides enough pop hit in the middle of the order. What’s Vaughn’s ceiling? Joey Votto. Somewhere in the middle of those two is uber-professional hitter Mike Sweeney, who was also a short, right-handed first baseman. With Vaughn—who has had maybe the best college career ever at the dish—we are not just talking about an uncanny ability to put the bat on the ball. The Cal first baseman has maybe the best eye in the NCAA as well. There is just too much to like for him to fail. Vaughn won the Golden Spikes Award in 2018 after his coming-out party as a sophomore, slashing .402/.531/.819 with 23 dingers and a 44:18 BB:K ratio. Playing in a power conference but not on for a power program, Vaughn saw fewer pitches to hit in 2019, but still posted elite numbers (.385/.539/.728 with 15 HR and a 53:30 BB:K ratio). This is a no-doubt bat, the only question about Vaughn is if he can play first or will be strictly a DH. He’s not just hindered by his right-handedness, which makes playing first more difficult, he’s also short, giving infielders a smaller target at the position that sees the most action on the field. Even with all of this against him defensively, Vaughn could be in the majors in late 2020.
3. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals, Age: 19
Best-Case Comp: Trevor Story
The son of a journeyman pitcher with the same name, Bobby Witt Jr. is an athletic prep shortstop with plus power and plus speed. He could stay at SS for a while, but will need to generally improve his already projectable tools, most notably his plate approach. That said, Witt isn’t a boom-or-bust candidate in today’s MLB. There is a place for shortstops who don’t hit for average but are fast and can knock it out even if his development doesn’t quite go as planned. It if all comes together, you could see a Trevor Story/Javier Baez kind of guy. If not, there’s some Tim Anderson here. I doubt that will be the case, given his pedigree and the advancement of his already impressive tools.
4. Riley Greene, RF, Detroit Tigers, Age: 18
Best-Case Comp: Garrett Anderson/Christian Yelich
For dynasty league purposes, owning Riley Greene is like having a war bond in your pocket. It won’t be worth much now, but in a few years, you will cash in. There is one thing that is for certain: wherever Greene is, he’s hitting. With plus power potential, Greene mashed Florida prep pitching, earning a spot in the 18U National Team, where he demolished international pitching. A popular comparison of Greene is Twins 1B Alex Kirilloff, who is also a hitting machine, but I’m more likely to go with Christian Yelich. There is a chance he turns into one of the best hitters in the league, but there is also a chance he’s a high-average, medium-power guy with some speed.
5. C.J. Abrams, SS, San Diego Padres, Age: 18
Best-Case Comp: Jean Segura
Not everybody agrees that Witt is a better prospect than C.J. Abrams. Personally, I’m on the fence, but leaning Witt because of the power potential. Still, Abrams has considerably more speed—he’s just about the fastest prospect taken in early rounds—and he’s just as gifted an athlete. A good comparison for Abrams is Jean Segura, who throughout his career has been a solid fielding SS, and at times capable of both hitting 20+ bombs and swiping 40+ bases. Like Witt, there are swing-and-miss issues with Abrams. How much he improves on that front will likely be the most pivotal determination of how good he is.
6. J.J. Bleday, RF, Miami Marlins, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Jay Bruce (2010-2013)
J.J. Bleday is a bit of a late bloomer. It’s easy to think Bleday should be more valuable than Greene in dynasty leagues—after all, he is closer to the majors. The junior from Vanderbilt has not been outshined by the bright lights of one of college baseball’s top programs, coming out of almost nowhere in 2019 to lead the NCAA in homers with 25, all the while slashing .346/.748/1.209 with a BB:K ratio of 45:45. Any hitter that can dominate like this in college’s premier conference is worth a first-round pick. Bleday went in the top five because of the power potential his 6-3, 205-pound frame promises. I’m a little more skeptical of his ability to make contact enough to be a difference maker on a dynasty roster. In fact, he kind of reminds me of Jay Bruce. The talent is there to be an all-star, but it’s also possible that he hits .226.
7. Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Chris Archer (2014-2016)
If Alek Manoah were a lefty, or he played in the SEC, he’d probably be the first pitcher taken in the draft. As it stands now, he could be the third. Manoah has one of the top three fastballs in the draft, topping out just south of triple digits. He combines the gas with a plus slider and an unimpressive changeup to a 1.91 ERA with 125 Ks in 94.0 IP in 2019. His control is average for a college pitcher, but he should be able to rise through the first few levels of the minors without incident. When you combine his velocity, slider, and size (6’6″, 260 lbs), I think he has the best starting point of any prospect in this year’s draft. Manoah is more of a physical specimen than his comp, Chris Archer, but I see a similar repertoire to Archer’s early days when he was sitting 95-96 mph and not 93 as he does now. I’d say as it stands now, look at the highs and lows of Archer’s career, and somewhere in there is Manoah.
8. Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Minnesota Twins, Age: 18
Best-Case Comp: David Wright (Non-Injury Prone)
A relative unknown at the beginning of 2019, Keoni Cavaco has rocketed up draft boards after dominating the California prep season. He’s also impressed organizations with a series of private workouts. What can this kid do? Well, it is hard to say because it’s hard to find much about him. What I know is the speed/power combo is real and might be the best in the draft. His swing looks a little clunky, but that isn’t a reason to knock a high schooler, especially when he’s a potential five-tool talent. I’m not sure about his defense yet, so the David Wright comp might not be all the way accurate, but the offensive profile fits the bill.
9. Daniel Espino, RHP, Cleveland Indians, Age: 18
Best-Case Comp: Luis Severino
With Daniel Espino, we’ve officially entered the big tools/big deficits portion of the draft class. For fantasy purposes, Espino is the kind of non-elite pitching prospect I look for: He brings the heat. Reaching 100 mph with the heater as a high schooler is no longer an anomaly, but it is still valuable, especially when there is a plus slider and at least the remnant of a pro-level curveball. There are definitely pitchers closer to the majors and more developed in general, but I’m looking for potential all-stars when I draft prospects. I’ll be honest, Espino is one of those prospects that, depending on which organization they go, it would affect their spot on this list. Now that he’s in the Indians system, which has maybe the best track record the last decade of developing pitchers, I’m ecstatic. Sure, Espino’s wild, as any high schooler flashing triple digits will be, but the upside is obvious.
10. Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks, Age: 18
Best-Case Comp: Andrew Benintendi
He’s undersized and he’s a cold-weather prep prospect, I get it, but Corbin Carroll is the type of sweet-swinging, blazing-fast prospect that seemingly comes out of nowhere to appear in all-star games. He’s one of those prep athletes that with enough development might be able to play any position on the field, but will probably stick at center. It’s not just Carroll’s tools that are impressive, it’s his performance. Like Greene, Carroll hits everywhere he goes, including the 18U National Team, where he was consistently either in first or second in almost every offensive category. The power production is a question mark, given his stature (5’10”, 165 lbs) but even that isn’t a red flag anymore, just look at Andrew Benintendi/Mookie Betts/Dustin Pedroia.
11. Greg Jones, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Jacoby Ellsbury
Kameron Misner or Greg Jones? That is the question. They don’t play similar positions, but their power/speed combinations make them intriguing dynasty prospects. On the one hand, both players have had one incredible season each in their college career. On the other hand, Jones’ career season was 2019 in a weak conference and Misner’s was 2018 in a power conference. So who would I rather own? I’m was leaning toward Jones before he went to the Rays system—now I’m all in. Typically I would covet the more powerful hitter, which in this case is Misner, but since it’s hard to ignore Jones’ 70-grade speed to go along with his 50-grade power potential. The Rays have done more in their system with guys who have had worse tools. This is a smart pick. He reminds me of Jacoby Ellsbury. Once again Jones is not an outfielder, but the speed/power combo matches—and so would the bat if Jones’ .343/.551/1.042 breakout is real and not a product of playing lesser competition.
12. Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets, Age: 19
Best-Case Comp: Anthony Rendon
I am impressed with Brett Baty‘s bat/power potential, along with how far along he is already. He’s one of the older high school prospects in the draft, which often is a red flag. There is usually just too much body development that goes on in your late teens to trust an increase in skills as not just being a man playing against boys. Baty’s profile doesn’t fit this trend. He has a sweet, level swing that is perfect for producing high exit velocities. High schoolers do not usually go through the minors very fast, but Baty has the chance to be one of the quicker preps to reach the majors, given his bat.
13. Hunter Bishop, RF, San Francisco Giants, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: A.J. Pollock
After going on a tear to start his junior season, Hunter Bishop has cooled of late. This might be a sign of things to come, though, as streaky could be used to best describe the potential five-tool corner infielder. Before 2019, Bishop might not have even been drafted, but his name shot up boards as he slashed .356/.792/1.274 with 22 bombs and 11 SB. At 6’4″ and 205 pounds, he’s the ideal size and his speed will play in the majors if his plate approach is good enough to get him there. The problem is his BB:K rate, which went from 16:11 before conference play to 42:56 to end the season. It’s possible he’s having issues with breaking balls. Still, A.J. Pollock is a pretty good comp. Bishop might have a little more power, but Pollock is probably better at getting on base.
14. Kody Hoese, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Kyle Seager
Put Tulane product Kody Hoese in the SEC and in the OF and you’ve got Bleday. Not to say that the two are completely comparable, but Hoese’s rise up draft boards is based on a similar power surge to the Vanderbilt slugger:
I think Hoese and Bleday almost the exact same profile, just one played in the SEC and that makes his breakout more believable than the other. Meanwhile, Hoese played in the American Conference so it will take more to be convinced. That might not be fair but most of the time; I fall in that camp generally, but not with Hoese.
15. Zack Thompson, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Cliff Lee
If Zack Thompson didn’t have elbow concerns, he’d be a few spots higher. It’s hard to ignore a pitcher who might have to miss significant time within a year of drafting him—especially when the warning signs were there when you picked him. The difference between Thompson and Nick Lodolo is simple: They have similar repertoires (fastball/slider/changeup) but Thompson has a curveball and Lodolo doesn’t. Sitting around 93-94 mph, Thompson has a little more velocity to his fastball and he’s also got a better change. Thompson also pitched in the SEC, which history tells us that success there (2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 13 K/9) is a good prerequisite for MLB success.
16. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Cincinnati Reds, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Andrew Miller
Lodolo embodies the 2019 pitching draft class. He’s viewed by many as the top pitcher in the draft without possessing an elite pitch. With an ability to better command his arsenal than most college pitchers (19 walks in 91 IP), Lodolo isn’t the kind of lefty who will blow you away. With a 91-94 mph fastball, there is potential to add velocity in the near future due to his frame… or lack of it. At 6’5″ and 175 pounds, he looks like Chris Sale walking to the mound… and Andrew Miller once he starts throwing on it… before he became a reliever. A change from an inconsistent curveball to a hard slider can be one of the reasons for a dramatic improvement in 2019, so there is room to wonder what else he can do to get better. It also is possible he becomes the next starter converted to an elite reliever.
17. Kameron Misner, OF, Miami Marlins, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Grady Sizemore
If you read the Espino entry, you know how I feel about big upside prospects. That’s Misner. If you can’t get Greene, Bleday, or Bishop, Misner might be your next best bet. A potential top-10 pick at the beginning of the season, Misner lost all of the gains he showed in 2018 with a 2019 that was closer to his freshman year:
Make no mistake, Misner possesses big power and big speed. The peak of his potential is a 30/30 world beater, but his floor is never making it to the majors. You’re playing with fire here, and it’s easy to be mesmerized by the flames.
18. Jackson Rutledge, RHP, Washington Nationals, Age: 20
Best-Case Comp: Mat Latos
Do you like what you read about Espino? How about a two-year-older version who is a little better at everything? I know what you’re thinking: If that is true, why isn’t Jackson Rutledge ranked higher than Espino? It’s simple: He might have slightly better velocity and command right now, but will it be better than Espino’s in two years? That’s the question. If you think it will be, then Rutledge should be higher. I’m not as convinced. Prep pitchers can improve very quickly with new pitches and mechanic tweaks taught by professionals. Back to Rutledge, who sits 95+ mph with a heater that reaches 100, he’s got a plus slider, a not-so-plus curveball, and a lackluster change. He’s also had a complicated history with lower-body injuries, maturity issues but also an intense work ethic.
19. Quinn Priester, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates, Age: 18
Best-Case Comp: James Shields
When it comes to prep pitching prospects, Quinn Priester is like a breath of fresh air. Fastball/sliders are all the rage for potential starting candidates. Priester, on the other hand, does it with low-90s heat and probably the second-best high school curveball in the draft. At 6’3″ and nearly 200 pounds, he’s got the size and athleticism to repeat his delivery and develop command quicker than most teenagers. He’s also got room to add weight and probably velocity, which could dramatically change his outlook.
20. Bryson Stott, SS, Philadelphia Phillies, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Brandon Phillips
Bryson Stott is one of the few players in this draft who could end up with a plus-plus hit tool. If that doesn’t pan out, he’s likely to be one of those shortstops who could be above average at everything without a real strong tool. Stott might be the only prospect in this list to meet that profile, but it can still be valuable—just look at Brandon Phillips or Whit Merrifield.
21. George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Triston McKenzie
So far the only sin that George Kirby has committed is playing for Elon. I’ll admit, playing in a mid-major conference does make it more difficult to believe his consistently great pitching performance (sub-3.00 ERA, 9.5+ K/9) the last two years is real. I believe Kirby will be a middle of the rotation starter—his floor is just too high. With a plus fastball (velocity sits 94 mph), a plus curveball, and a respectable changeup, Kirby could be a fast riser in the Mariners’ system. He’s also got the size to stick around as a starter.
22. Graeme Stinson, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Carlos Rodon
Unlike most people, I’m not willing to give up on Graeme Stinson just yet. Yes, he had a difficult time in 2019, and his velocity has fluctuated, but it’s still one of the better fastballs in college—and his slider might be the best in the draft. Any improvement in control, mechanics, or expanding his repertoire would pay exponential dividends. It’s a good thing the Rays snatched him up in the fourth round. Although taller and thinner than Carlos Rodon, I’d say the repertoire is similar.
23. Maurice Hampton, CF, High School, Age: 17
Best-Case Comp: Bo Jackson
Alright, you’ve missed out on Witt, Abrams, Cavaco, Carroll and to a lesser extent, Misner. There is still one prospect with five-tool potential remaining: Maurice Hampton. There is a chance he doesn’t play baseball at all, as he’s a top prospect in football as well and committed to LSU. He’s turned down large signing bonuses and rumors are teams will have to go significantly over slot to lure him away from being a two-sport athlete in the SEC. That said, the tools are first-round worthy. The bat has serious issues, but there’s plus power, potentially plus-plus speed, and a star defensive centerfielder here. If a team can get him to commit to playing baseball, he’s one to watch. I see him has Bo Jackson lite—literally. He’s a very well built guy who looks like a football player, but even at 6’0″ and 200 pounds, he’s 20 or so pounds lighter than Mr. Jackson when he took his first steps on Auburn’s campus.
24. Shae Langeliers, C, Atlanta Braves, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Salvador Perez
In most other years, Shae Langeliers would have been the top catcher in the draft. Unfortunately for him, he had an all-world backstop ahead of him. I’m not going to say that offensively he’s as good as Joey Bart either, because he doesn’t have quite the power, but his defense is elite. Langeliers’ defense is near major league ready so how quickly the bat comes around will determine when he gets to the show.
25. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers, Age: 21
Best-Case Comp: Aaron Boone
While many of the names on this list benefited from notable 2019 seasons, Josh Jung‘s regression begged more questions about his future. What is most concerning to me is actually isn’t his bat, it’s his glove. Since he doesn’t have an elite arm, Jung might not be able to play the hot corner if his glove doesn’t get better. That means he’s going to first base or left field, where the bar for his bat will have to get higher to be worth rostering. Most compare Jung to Colin Moran, but I’m not sure that is right. Jung is less of a contact hitter. I think he’s more like Aaron Boone.
(Photo by Jesse Beals/Icon Sportswire)
Where would Vaughn slot for you in overall dynasty prospect ranks?
I’d put him around 35.
I don’t think Rutschman is what people are billing him to be. I think it is more a reflection that this was a bad draft and I think that this particular draft was characterized by risk aversion as the elite upside is very much lacking from this group which makes a safe player like AR more palatable. Posey was a much better athlete as he played SS and pitched for FSU in addition to catching. I agree that Posey is the HOF upside comp, but reality is probably well short of that. Ironically, Correa was not head and shoulders above the rest of his class either – Byron Buxton was right in that mix. If I were picking #1 in a dynasty draft I would be sour about having to take a C #1.
Andrew Vaughn’s floor is Will Craig, Jake Burger… those type of guys. Those really physical guys that are not great athletes don’t have a great track record in pro ball. Its easy when you are just bigger and stronger than everyone else, but they often disappoint – someday the next Pujols will come along, but this draft has several players that look shaky to me and cut from that mold – JJ Bleday is another one. That’s why I think this draft stinks – players like that usually don’t go that high. The college hitters are generally more athletic like George Springer or projectable like Alec Bohm. I get the feeling that teams are overdrafting large conference sluggers as of the past few years as they lean more on EV and available batted balll data and less on decades of knowledge and experience – which would discount metal bat production against trash arms.
I don’t get paid to hype guys and I actually want them to slip for my drafts so I don’t talk about guys I like lol, but my favorites are in your top 20. More than anything, I don’t care much about scouting them today – many of us are going to get half a season of meaningful data to add to the amateur scouting reports. My best advice for someone who wants to follow prospects is to do your best to disregard all the prep stuff – it is ultimately worthless and ends up being primarily bias to future analysis.
I agree with you about this year being a light draft, but only when it comes to pitching. I’d argue (and I did) that AR is both a safe player with elite upside. In fact, as I’ve written in other articles, I think he’s already better than Joey Bart, who was No. 2 last year. If this year’s AR were inserted in any of the last five drafts, he would have been the top pick in four of the years.
I also disagree with you about Vaughn. I don’t even agree with the way you characterize him. First of all, he’s not bigger than most college players, especially college 1B. Considering you picked two guys to compare him with that were drafted just two years ago, it’s hard to argue how well they will do in pro ball — especially when one has been decent and the other ruptured his Achilles twice. I watched all three of those guys in college and can tell you Vaughn is not like either of the two in terms of floor or ceiling unless you consider their ceiling to be his floor. On pitch recognition and approach alone, Vaughn is light years ahead. He already doesn’t swing at pitches he knows he can’t drive, even if they might happen to fall in the strike zone. Burger and Craig never got to that point. Hardly any college players do — and that’s the point.
That said, I’m glad we agree about some of the players in my top 20. Happy hunting.
My summer draft in my dynasty league is happening right now and I’m picking in the next day or two. Would you draft anyone on your list over Nate Pearson or Deivi Garcia (Vaughn and Rutschman are drafted)? We have 150 minor league players on our rosters fyi. Cheers
I got Pearson with 7th pick
You made the right pick