Every Sunday during the 2021 season, I will be posting a list of 10 hitting prospects to stash in redraft leagues. This is important because, despite this being a dynasty article, I am solely evaluating players for their ability to impact fantasy teams in 2021—and not beyond.
The start of the 2021 minor league season is finally upon us, after nearly two full years of waiting, and getting to see players like Jarred Kelenic and Wander Franco back in action, hitting dingers, has been all any of us prospect hounds could ask for – except, you know, those guys doing damage in the big leagues.
But that’s coming! No real changes on the list this week, as only Joey Bart was promoted from last week’s list, and he’s already back in the minor leagues, although a few players got added to the given consideration list after strong starts in the minor leagues, including Lewin Diaz and Luis Garcia, replacing Trevor Larnach, who was called up after the Twins lost both Alex Kirilloff and Byron Buxton to the injured list.
Larnach is a solid spec add in deeper redraft leagues, but probably not worth grabbing in 10 and 12-teamers just yet.
Without further ado, here is a look at the top 10 hitting prospects worth stashing in your redraft leagues.
1. Jarred Kelenic, OF, SEA – ETA Late May
Jarred Kelenic made a jaw-dropping first impression at Triple-A Tacoma, blasting two home runs in his first game action after getting passed over for a spot on Seattle’s Opening Day roster, and not getting the call these past few weeks despite injury and ineffectiveness plaguing the Mariners outfield.
He followed that up by getting a pair of knocks against Padres left-handed prospect MacKenzie Gore, helping to alleviate one of the very few concerns that might linger about Kelenic, his ability to hit left-handed pitching.
Kelenic’s performance, and the struggles of the outfielders currently in Seattle, pushed General Manager Jerry DiPoto to make a statement indicating that Kelenic could be up in a couple of weeks, likely before the end of the month, in order to add a spark to the team’s offense.
Jerry Dipoto on Kelenic on @710ESPNSeattle
"We're getting closer and closer. It's part because we feel he's making progress. It's part because it's time to take a look at him and that's coming sooner than later. It's also some part that it might add a spark to our offense."
— Maura Dooley (@Maura_Dool) May 6, 2021
Kelenic may not have a ton of minor league experience, but his bat-to-ball skills, raw power, speed, and overall approach at the plate should make him an instant contributor when he does make the show, so it’s paramount to get him on your roster before that point.
The impending arrival of Kelenic is great news for the sport in general, and huge news for those who went ahead and selected him on draft day. If he’s still available in your league, I’d suggest finding a spot for him on your bench as soon as possible, because the results from the budding star will be well worth the wait if he does make it up before the end of the month – and even if he doesn’t, frankly, they will probably still be worth it down the line.
2. Wander Franco, SS, TB — ETA June
I have Franco one spot behind Kelenic because it is a near certainty that Kelenic will get called up first, but Franco’s assignment at Triple-A Durham, and his ridiculously hot start at the dish that resulted in a home run and a triple in his first two games, does make me feel far more confident we will see him over the summer, rather than as a late-season September call-up.
I still think prospects like Vidal Bruján and Taylor Walls – who are also both off to hot starts at Durham – could get the call first, but now it looks a tad more likely that Franco will be up sooner rather than later if he continues to crush it with the Bulls, which there is little reason to believe he won’t do.
Given the ultra-rare 80 grade future value from Fangraphs, Franco has everything you could possibly want out of a fantasy baseball prospect: speed, power, hit tool, etc. and while there is always some risk in rostering players who have yet to play in the big leagues, Franco is about as risk-free as you can get, outside of the unclear debut timeline.
Tampa Bay has a full infield at the moment, with Bruján waiting in the wings, and as a team known for their frugality, his call-up date is a huge mystery. Still, if you have a roster spot and are willing to take the risk, Franco will reward you quite handsomely whenever he does finally make his big league debut.
3. Jarren Duran, OF, BOS — ETA June
This list has featured both Jarren Duran and Jeter Downs all year long, but especially now that Duran is learning to play left field, a spot currently occupied by the massively struggling Franchy Cordero, it looks almost certain he will be up far earlier than Downs – allowing him to jump all the way up to the No. 3 spot on this list despite a slow start at the dish in Triple-A.
“I think we’re going to learn a lot,” Red Sox GM Chaim Bloom said about starting Duran out at Triple-A. “We want to make sure we don’t try to learn too much from a really small sample. But just having him go through the ups and downs of a season and playing every day and doing it with the various ways we have to track his performance, we’re going to learn a lot pretty quickly. At the end of the day, it’s up to the player. (We have) every confidence Jarren is going to go out there and knock that door down. But he’ll tell us when he’s ready.”
Duran is a speedster with good bat-to-ball skills who underwent a swing change last year that began to unlock some power—the ultimate combination of circumstances, and one that often makes prospects hounds a little weak in the knees.
Duran reportedly hit five home runs in intrasquad scrimmages at Boston’s alternate training site last year and, considering he slashed .303/.367/.408 with 46 steals across two minor league levels in 2019 (with just five total dingers), it is not hard to see why the potential of added power would make him pretty appealing.
Duran is still pretty raw, and I have concerns that plate discipline will remain an issue, but if the 24-year-old does get the call in 2021 he will be an interesting deep league sleeper—and one that I wouldn’t mind stashing in very deep formats ahead of time to take a gamble on.
4. Vidal Bruján, 2B, TB — ETA June
Likely the infield prospect Tampa Bay will turn to before Franco, Vidal Bruján is an elite athlete and a double-plus runner who has exceptional barrel control and overall command of the strike zone, despite a swing that was described by Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs as “hellacious” after he told a story about Bruján swinging “so hard that he corkscrewed himself to the ground, only to pop back up like a Russian folk dancer”.
Bruján has drawn comparisons to Ketel Marte and Ozzie Albies due to his size and athleticism, and the hope for many in the industry is that, much like both Albies and Marte, he will grow into some power as he physically matures, without sacrificing his bat-to-ball skills and/or his speed.
And, also like Franco, Brujan has gotten off to a hot start at the plate in Triple-A Durham, and he has done so as an outfielder primarily – giving him added versatility which will help when the team is looking for reinforcements on the farm.
The Rays were very close to giving him a call during the playoffs last year, and while the team has a full roster of infielders at the moment, it seems like a safe bet that Bruján, who is 23, has about a half season’s worth of at-bats at Double-A, is on the 40-man roster, and is learning to play the outfield, could get a look early in the summer depending on the Rays’ team needs.
If that happens, he’ll be a quality add in most formats thanks to his speed and plate discipline – and if that power shows up he has the potential to be a fantasy star, a la peak Marte.
5. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS, KC — ETA September
One of the stars of spring training was Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., a first-round pick in 2019 who was already highly regarded in prospect circles before he set the baseball world ablaze with his light-tower power on full display in Surprise, Arizona last month.
Witt’s raw power is already well-known, along with his 60-grade speed, giving him true 30/30 potential at his absolute peak. He’s still just 20 years old, however, and while his timeline may have been accelerated by his power display this March, it’s still not even remotely a guarantee that he will be up at all in 2021.
We know he started the season in Double-A, and how he responds to that assignment will go a long way in determining the likelihood of him debuting during the 2021 season. We also know that Kansas City is not afraid to aggressively promote prospects, as seen by the Daniel Lynch move earlier this season, and if they remain competitive for another few weeks Witt’s promotion may be far closer than we initially projected.
Still, very few prospects have the potential that Witt does, and the few who do are either already on this list (Kelenic/Franco) or are less likely to be big leaguers in 2021 (Julio Rodríguez, Marco Luciano, CJ Abrams, Spencer Torkelson) which leaves Witt as an extremely high-risk, high-reward prospect stash in redraft leagues this season.
As talented as he is, I still would not recommend stashing him except in the deepest (16+) of formats, and even then it’s only really worth it if you have deep benches and are willing to gamble a roster spot on someone who probably won’t be up until the late summer. That final month of the season, if we get it, could be absolutely electric though.
6. Brandon Marsh, OF, LAA — ETA June
Angels outfielder Brandon Marsh is the kind of prospect scouts drool about – a 6’4 speedster with a good hit tool and burgeoning power, which if he finds a way to fully harness could make him a legitimate All-Star caliber player.
He is currently blocked in Los Angeles by some guy named Mike Trout, as well as veteran Justin Upton. However, LA has had a really hard time filling that final outfield spot – using veterans like Dexter Fowler, Juan Lagares, Jon Jay, and Scott Schebler to no avail before eventually converting reliever turned first baseman turned outfielder Jared Walsh into the starter in right field. Now, Walsh is expected to move back to first base after the team unceremoniously designated future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols for assignment, which could clear the way for a promotion – which will likely go to fellow young outfielder Jo Adell.
Note: Adell would be No. 3 on this list if he was still prospect eligible, and I would rather roster him as a stash than Marsh for the time being.
That makes it a little hard to gauge Marsh’s MLB timeline, as he is likely behind Adell in the pecking order – although that could be moot very soon if Adell joins the big club. The good news is Marsh already has 412 plate appearances at Double-A under his belt, and he played some of the best baseball of his career in the Arizona Fall League in 2019 thanks to a swing alteration. The primary change was with his hands, where he loaded the bat a little differently to get more loft in his swing in an effort to change his five-degree launch angle from the previous year.
COVID robbed us of a chance to see how that swing change will play out against opposing pitching, but if it goes as well as his fall performance suggests, he could rocket through the minor leagues and force the Angels to give him a roster spot before the summer is up.
Once there, Marsh could be a 15/20 type guy right out of the gate, making him a must-own in redraft leagues if/when he gets that call.
If you feel like taking a risk and trying to get ahead of this, Marsh is not a bad name to stash at the end of your bench. But LA’s full outfield, and Adell’s presence, make this playing time situation among the more tenuous ones on this list.
7. Joey Bart, C, SFG — ETA June
With Buster Posey’s decision to opt-out last year, the Giants called up uber catching prospect Joey Bart, but the youngster struggled in 33 MLB games, hitting just .233 with a 2.7% walk rate and a 36.9% strikeout rate, along with just seven extra-base hits and zero home runs.
Now that Posey is back, the Giants are content to roll with the future Hall of Famer and some combination of Curt Casali and Chadwick Tromp as the backup – giving Bart a chance to develop with the team’s Triple-A affiliate. Bart got off to a strong start with Sacramento, going 1-4 with a home run, and even earned a one-day call-up to San Francisco where he got one at-bat.
So it is pretty clear Bart is a guy who could get shuttled up and down between Sacramento and San Francisco, making him a hard guy to stash until he manages to wrestle away a full-time role with the Giants – which may or may not happen this year depending on Posey’s health and productivity.
Bart is probably never going to contribute in either the average or OBP categories, but the power is very real and could lead to 25-30 home runs annually when he reaches his peak. At a position that is a dearth of fantasy talent, the potential of Bart to come up and pile on home runs makes him an intriguing stash candidate in deeper redraft leagues – although his struggles last season certainly give some cause for concern.
I’d ultimately settle on putting Bart on the watchlist except in those deeper leagues, but if anything happens to Posey you’ll want to be on Bart as quick as you can.
8. Jeter Downs, 2B/SS, BOS — ETA July
Credit to Boston’s front office for developing a strong farm system, as this is the second Red Sox prospect on this list, with Bobby Dalbec already entrenched in the big leagues and Triston Casas potentially not too far behind.
Named after Derek Jeter, Jeter Downs has a similar skill-set as a power-speed threat who plays up the middle, although he’s more likely to stick at second base than at shortstop, and will begin his big league career in Boston and not New York.
Before he gets to Boston to play second base, however, Downs will start out with the new Triple-A Worcester Sox – and he is starting at shortstop. It’s been a tough start to the season for Downs, but that doesn’t change his potential to make an impact in this Boston lineup at some point this season, although not likely at the shortstop position barring an injury to Xander Bogaerts.
The 23-year-old has been an advanced hitter throughout his minor league career, and his gap power could translate into some over-the-fence pop as he physically matures – and gets the benefit of calling Fenway Park home. He’s an average runner that has shown smarts on the base paths, and there’s absolutely potential for him to be a 20/20 guy at his peak, or at the very least a 15/15 regular who can contribute in BA/OBP formats as well.
Downs only had 12 games of experience above High-A before this season began, but considering the success he had in the lower levels of the minors while with the Dodgers it seems entirely plausible Downs will thrive in the high minors this year, and could easily force his way onto Boston’s active roster.
No one is unseating Bogaerts at shortstop, but Downs’ competition at second base is some combination of Enrique Hernández, Marwin Gonzalez, Christian Arroyo, and Michael Chavis – so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him getting reps by the middle of the summer.
He is more of a watchlist candidate than anything in most redraft leagues, but in deeper formats, I think he’s worth stashing for those who have the room.
9. JJ Bleday, OF, MIA — ETA August
The Miami Marlins have a hoard of young outfielders knocking on the door to the major leagues, but the best of the group (by far) is Bleday, the fourth overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft and a masher from the left side who hit well in Low-A in 2019 and reportedly looked great at the alternate site last year, before hitting well in spring training.
Although the team allegedly made plans to start the slugger in Triple-A this year, an aggressive assignment for a guy with just 151 minor league plate appearances, he instead began the year at Double-A where he is 3-for-12 with three walks and a pair of RBI. I don’t think that changes his timeline too much, however, and while guys like Monte Harrison and Jesús Sánchez remain options for call-ups, considering both already have big league experience, I’d much rather gamble on Bleday in deeper fantasy leagues.
His easy power from the left side and advanced plate discipline for his age could make him a really nice pickup down the stretch. Playing time is not guaranteed here, but in 16+ team leagues with deep benches or a few NA slots, Bleday is a guy I’d love to take a gamble on while we see how he responds to his Double-A assignment over the next few weeks.
10. Adley Rutschman, C, BAL — ETA September
Rutschman is a tough player to rank on this list. A switch-hitter with premium power and a solid hit tool, Rutschman could easily be among the top 10 catchers in all of fantasy baseball by season’s end – but it will heavily depend on if (or when) he gets called up to the big league club. A recent report from Joe Trezza of MLB.com indicates that Rutschman won’t make his big league debut until late 2021, which bumps him down a bit on this list, but his time will still come at some point this year – and when it does he will be a hot-add.
Rutschman began the season at Double-A this past week, an assignment that bodes well for him making his debut this season – although again he’s less certain to come up during the summer months, making him a riskier stash candidate.
The Orioles are still in tank mode, and they are beginning the 2021 campaign with Pedro Severino and Chance Sisco behind the dish. Rutschman is likely already an upgrade over one, or both of those guys, despite only having 12 games of experience above Low-A.
Still, the reports from the team’s alternate training site were extremely positive for the young catcher, and his makeup, poise, advanced skillset, leadership, and potentially elite defense behind the dish make him a prime candidate to rise quickly up the ranks and onto the big league club sometime this summer – provided Baltimore is willing to give up an additional year of service time for the former Oregon State star.
Getting a good, quality catcher often costs an arm and a leg on draft day, and if you are someone who doesn’t like the look of that spot on your current roster, Rutschman may not be a terrible gamble in formats with deeper benches, as he has the ability to instantly upgrade that position in a major way if he gets a look this summer.
Others given consideration: Jared Oliva, Drew Waters, Isaac Paredes, Seth Beer, Brent Rooker, Julio Rodríguez, Brennen Davis, Heliot Ramos, Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, Lewin Díaz, Luis García, Taylor Walls
Photo from Bryan Green | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)