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Top SP: Tyler Mahle, CIN ($ 8,700 DK, $ 8,400 FD) at STL
This is a tricky slate for pitching on DraftKings as there aren’t too many standout options at the top. Triston McKenzie has pitched really well through his first four turns with a 27.6% K-BB%, but he gets the Twins whose implied team total of just under five runs makes me hesitant.
Tyler Mahle has been impressive this year as he has managed to strike out LHB at a 28.7% clip and RHB at 31.4%. Overall, Mahle owns a strong 21.6% K-BB% this season, and he’s allowed just a .284 xwOBA and .194 xBA. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been just about an average team offensively against RHP with a .315 team wOBA and 97 wRC+.
Honorable Mentions: Lance Lynn, TEX ($9,000 FD) vs OAK.
Value SP: Sixto Sánchez, MIA ($6,200 DK) vs PHI
If you’re playing on DraftKings, Sixto Sánchez is once again just way too cheap at $6,200. He’ll be pitching game one of the Marlins doubleheader against the Phillies who have yet to see him this year. He’s been fantastic through his first four turns with a 24.5% K-BB%. Let’s continue to enjoy the ridiculous discount while we can.
On FanDuel, Frankie Montas looks like a potential buy-low. This Rangers offense is abysmal to put it kindly with a .277 team wOBA against RHP, second-worst. Montas has struggled recently, but the velocity is still there and we know there is upside, at this price why not? The Oakland A’s are decent road favorites against a very formidable opponent in Lance Lynn.
Honorable Mention: Frankie Montas OAK ($6,800 FD) at TEX; Carlos Martínez STL ($7,900 DK, $7,000 FD) vs CIN.
OF Kyle Schwarber, CHC ($4,300 DK, $2,900 FD) at MIL
The Cubs lefties are worth a mention today. Adrian Houser has struggled a bit to say the least with a 5.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 9.9% K-BB%. Against opposing LHB, he’s surrendered a .423 wOBA this year. Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber owns a .360 career wOBA vs RHP. Anthony Rizzo (.357 xwOBA) and Ian Happ (.404 xwOBA) are very strong plays here as well.
OF Christian Yelich, MIL ($5,800 DK, $4,100 FD) vs CHC
Cubs starter Alec Mills hasn’t distinguished himself with just a 9.9% K-BB% and over the last two seasons, he’s coughed up a .375 wOBA to opposing LHB. Even though his batting average is barely over the Mendoza line, Christian Yelich is still hitting the ball exceedingly hard with a .377 xwOBA.
If you’re playing the FanDuel slate, Rockies starter Ryan Castellani has allowed a .359 wOBA to lefties and .408 wOBA to righties. Both Anthony Rendon and, of course, Mike Trout, jump off the page today even more so than usual.
Honorable Mentions: D.J. LeMahieu, 2B/3B ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD) vs BAL; Nolan Arenado, 3B ($5,800 DK, $4,200 FD) vs LAA, Eloy Jiménez, OF ($5,200 DK, $3,300 FD) vs DET; Anthony Rendon ($4,500 FD) at COL; Shohei Ohtani ($3,600 FD) at COL.
Value Batter: OF Randy Arozarena, TB ($3,500 DK, $2,800 FD) vs BOS
The Red Sox will be firing their ace today in Martín Pérez. We should be skeptical of the lefty who has been skating by trouble all season with an elevated 12.2% BB rate and a bare-bones 15.7% K rate. Over the past two seasons, Pérez has allowed a .340 wOBA to opposing RHB. Small sample size caveat, but Randy Arozarena has been impressive so far with a .387 xwOBA. He should be hitting second today for the Rays who have an implied total of five runs.
Adalberto Mondesí has seemingly awoken from the dead with three huge games. He gets another exploitable matchup against the righty Chad Kuhl who has allowed a .336 wOBA to opposing LHB the past two seasons.
Honorable Mentions: Avisaíl García ($3,000 DK, $2,900 FD) vs CHC; Jared Walsh, 1B ($2,700 FD) at COL; J.D. Davis, OF ($2,600 FD) at TOR; Nomar Mazara, OF ($3,000 DK, $2,300 FD) vs DET; Jo Adell, OF ($3,000 FD) at COL; Adalberto Mondesí, SS ($2,700 DK, $2,800 FD) vs PIT; Miguel Andújar, 3B/OF ($3,800 DK, $2,500 FD) vs BAL.
Lineup Stack: White Sox vs Tigers (RHP Spencer Turnbull)
Kyle Wright has struggled mightily this year with a -2.1% K-BB%, so if you’re playing on FanDuel, Nationals bats are worth a long look at the very least. After a phenomenal rookie campaign, John Means has struggled to find positive results this year posting an ugly 6.58 ERA. Still, a 4.12 xERA and a fairly modest .322 xwOBA along with a trim 4.5% BB walk rate could be harbingers of positive regression for Means. The Yankees are definitely on the board too, but it’s a spot that could easily go either way.
It feels like cheating after they scored two touchdowns last night, but let’s return to the White Sox today. They’ll be facing the righty Spencer Turnbull for the second time this year. Turnbull has posted just a 4.7% K-BB% this year so he’s been dancing into and out of trouble all year long with a 15.1% BB rate. His .362 xwOBA allowed this year also spells some potential trouble. Going by his splits the past two seasons, Turnbull has not surprisingly struggled a little more against LHB ceding a .331 wOBA to them. So Yoán Moncada and Yasmani Grandal make sense on paper with Nomar Mazara as a potential tournament play. The righty bats here though are, of course, excellent options too most notably Eloy Jiménez (.394 xwOBA), José Abreu (.388 xwOBA), Tim Anderson (.375 xwOBA), and Luis Robert (.373 xwOBA).
Honorable Mentions: COL vs LAA (Heaney); NYY vs BAL (Means); LAA at COL (Castellani); CHC at MIL (Houser).
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