Tuesday features a massive 14-game slate headlined by the Astros at Camden Yards and a bunch of viable pitchers across the board.
Top Tier Pitching
I could ramble on but to keep it brief, Charlie Morton just looks underpriced on both sites. I believe in him as a top twenty type of pitcher moving forward making him an easy buy at his current salary on both sites. He was my favorite value last time out and that’s the case again tonight on the road against the Mets. The Mets were initially slight home favorites tonight when the line opened, but that has since shifted in favor of the Braves.
If you’re a believer in Tarik Skubal (count me in), then his $6,600 salary on DraftKings looks like highway robbery. The Cardinals have hit lefties well this year but I think this is just a buy low scenario on a young talent who is clearly on the rise. He’s arguably the best SP2 value on the slate for DraftKings.
Eduardo Rodríguez is an excellent buy-low option tonight for tournaments considering the Rays who have struck out at a 28.4% clip against lefties (second worst). Pairing him with Morton or Skubal on DraftKings is an interesting way to go and allows you to have your pick of hitters.
It’s a little surprising to see Chris Flexen and the Mariners as this strong of a favorite (-164). Lo and behold the magic of the road Rockies. Flexen is there as an SP 2 value on DraftKings though I’m a little leery of it as I think his strikeout upside is tenuous despite the eight he recorded his last time out against the Twins.
Ross Stripling has shown a pretty decent 25% K rate this year and is another cheap matchup type of play against the Marlins and their .295 team wOBA (25th). I have more interest in Skubal and Rodríguez as a value SP 2 on DraftKings but then again it’s hard to argue against Stripling’s salary if you need the savings.
I’ll be transparent as someone who has Blake Snell on a dynasty team and who has been burnt by him in DFS, my wish is to be blissfully ignorant of his existence. Still, I’m obliged to note that there is, in theory at least, upside at his current cost. In reality, though, there is probably more pain ahead against the Dodgers tonight.
Cash Game Bats
Lest we be accused of burying the lede, the biggest prospect in all of the land will make his debut tonight in Wander Franco ($2,000 DK, $2,500 FD). Maybe it’s a potential fade in tournaments, regardless 80-grade prospects don’t grow on trees and the opportunity cost is non-existent at $2,000 on DraftKings.
After pasting the Orioles last night for ten runs, the Astros find themselves on the top of the board tonight with an implied total just under six runs. They’re the top offense in baseball with a .340 team wOBA. It’s difficult to imagine Jorge López and his less than stellar 5.95 ERA (5.26 xERA) and 1.49 WHIP providing much resistance. The lefties in Yordan Álvarez ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD) and Michael Brantley ($3,900 DK, $3,400 FD) stick out the most. I wouldn’t hesitate to use anyone in this lineup especially Kyle Tucker if he is cleared to play. There are a couple of potential punts to consider here in Abraham Toro ($2,100 DK, $2,100 FD) and Chas McCormick ($3,100 DK, $2,400 FD).
We haven’t seen much of Eli Morgan as he’s made just two appearances on the year so far. However, Vegas is telling us to side with the Cubs bats in this one as they’re installed with a robust team total of over five runs. Joc Pederson ($4,700 DK, $3,300 FD) and Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $3,200 FD) stick out considering their excellent career numbers against righties.
The lefty Taylor Hearn will be tasked with firing the opening salvo for the Rangers. He should be followed by Jordan Lyles who has a 1.56 WHIP and has allowed a .341 wOBA (.350 xwOBA) to opposing LHB over the past two seasons. Is there such a thing as too much Matt Olson ($5,600 DK, $4,00 FD)? No, I don’t think so either.
The Yankees have an implied team total north of five runs and certainly have the potential at least to break the slate tonight against Brady Singer making them a boom/bust stack fit for tournaments. It is worth noting, though, that Singer has done a very good job in his young career limiting righties to a .277 wOBA (.267 xwOBA). Luke Voit ($2,700 DK, $2,500 FD) is tentatively scheduled to return tonight and is one of the better values on the board.
If you’re looking for a boom/bust punt in tournaments consider Jesús Sánchez ($2,000 DK, $2,100 FD). He’s long been a prospect of note whose strong play (.442 wOBA in Triple-A this season) prompted his recent promotion. Ross Stripling has shown some reverse split tendencies allowing a .393 wOBA (.383 xwOBA) to righties over the last two seasons.
Considering how well Anthony DeSclafani has pitched there is at least a slight chance that Shohei Ohtani ($5,400 DK, $4,400 FD) could be a little overlooked on such a big slate. That’s exciting if you’re playing tournaments. Anthony Rendon ($4,400 DK, $3,100 FD) does also look a little too cheap here considering the caliber of hitter that he is. The Angels do have a fairly decent implied total of just under five runs.
The Red Sox are one of the best offenses in baseball and should carry minimal traffic in tournaments. They’ll face the opener Andrew Kittredge, followed by the Fratty Pirate whom they’ve previously tagged for five earned runs earlier this year. At the very least J.D. Martinez ($4,800 DK, $4,200 FD) is an interesting tournament pivot considering his strong career numbers against LHP.
I do think that mystery starters can at times deflate roster percentages in which case it makes the Phillies an interesting team. Bryce Harper is a great one-off in tournaments ($4,800 DK, $3,300 FD). He looks way too cheap on FanDuel.
Update: Knowing that tonight’s mystery starter is in fact Scherzer, I think we’re good in ignoring the Phillies tonight.
It’s not too often you see the Mariners with an implied team total approaching five runs. Undoubtedly a product of Kyle Freeland’s immense struggles this year who has, by far, the worst K-rate of the slate at 11.3%. Mitch Haniger ($5,000 DK, $3,300 FD ) leads the way as a spend up option and there are a couple of potential cheap righty bats in Tom Murphy ($3,500 DK, $2,200 FD) and Dylan Moore ($3,100 DK, $2,400 FD) to consider for tournaments. Ty France is another interesting bat too but it looks like he may be forced to miss with a wrist injury.
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