We’ve got a nine-game slate this Monday and it looks like there could be some weather to watch out for in the D’Backs @ Nationals and the Giants @ Mets contests. On DraftKings, there are several quality pitchers in the mid-tier to choose from and for bats, all eyes will be on Coors Field where Bryce Harper and the Phillies will look to tee off.
Top Tier Pitching
Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their stats from last season.
Clayton Kershaw: ($10,300 DK, $11,200 FD): @ MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 13 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 80 pitches.
Aaron Nola: ($9,900 DK, $9,500 FD): vs NYM (L) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 76 pitches.
Sean Manaea: ($9,100 DK, $9,700 FD): @ SF (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 86 pitches.
How was that for a season debut? Seven perfect innings on just 80 pitches. Yeah, I think it’s safe to say Kershaw is the top pitcher tonight. The only question is gauging the opportunity cost of not being able to roster Coors Field bats. And as we’ll see later on, there are some very solid options in the mid-tier that can open things up.
Nola might have been tempting at a discount, but at near full price, he’s an easy fade at Coors Field. Tonight sets up really well for Manaea, whose a strong home favorite and facing a dilapidated Reds lineup.
Luis Garcia: ($9,600 DK, $6,700 FD):@ ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 71 pitches.
Tylor Megill: ($9,300 DK, $9,000 FD): @ PHI (W) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 76 pitches.
Garcia’s price on FanDuel is tempting and he could be a popular way to squeeze in Coors bats, although it’s definitely a risky venture considering he looked a little off in his season debut. On DraftKings, he looks like an easy fade at his salary where just $700 more can net you Kershaw.
It’s hard not to be excited about Megill as he looks every bit like a breakout candidate after two strong starts that featured a fastball now averaging over 96 after sitting 94 last year. His price, however, has risen and I think on DraftKings I’d be looking for a way to get up to Kershaw for $1,000 more or drop down to Manaea for $200 less. The game in New York could be nasty weather-wise so be sure to keep an eye out.
Mid-Tier/Value Pitching
Alex Cobb: ($7,500 DK, $8,800 FD) vs SD (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 83 pitches.
For those in season-long leagues, if you pounced on Cobb late in drafts after hearing about a spike in his velocity, you had to have been pleased with his season debut against the Padres. He was brilliant and looks like one of the best values on the slate on DraftKings, where he makes for a very appealing SP 2 despite being a slight road dog against the Mets.
Frankie Montas: ($7,300 DK, $9,900 FD) @ TB (W) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 89 pitches.
Montas is right up there with Clayton Kershaw as the strongest favorite on the board as the Athletics host the Orioles. There is a big discrepancy in salary between the two sites; Oakland’s ace is right up there as one of the top plays of the night on DK and a little less so on FD where he’s the second most expensive pitcher on the board. Cobb and Montas should be a popular pairing on DraftKings that allows for some flexibility with bats.
Shane McClanahan: ($8,100 DK, $9,200 FD) vs OAK (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 85 pitches.
The strikeouts were there from McClanahan his last time out, he just lacked the efficiency. Tonight looks like an excellent buy-back spot against a light-hitting Cubs squad with the Rays installed as strong road favorites.
Josiah Gray: ($7,900 DK, $7,800 FD): @ ATL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 82 pitches.
Kyle Hendricks: ($6,600 DK, $8,500 FD): @ PIT (L) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 78 pitches.
Nick Lodolo: ($6,100 DK, $6,000 FD): vs CLE (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 79 pitches.
Gray is coming off a solid outing against Atlanta his last time out, but his fastball velocity is down just about a mile-per-hour relative to last year and his control/command seems a little suspect. The former Dodger prospect certainly has strikeout upside, but he’s a more volatile option that seems best reserved for diversifying in tournaments.
Hendricks, of course, rewarded everyone who bought back in after his strong opening start against the Brewers, with a massive dud against the Pirates of all teams. He’s cheap enough to warrant consideration as an SP 2 on DraftKings, although I might be more inclined to give Nick Lodolo another try in his second start as an even cheaper SP 2 for tournaments. He struggled with his control in his first start, but that seems uncharacteristic considering his minor league numbers. Speaking of those numbers, his 34.1% K-BB% across 10 starts with Double-A Chattanooga last season hint at the tall southpaw’s upside.
Bats and Stacks
- PHI (6.3 implied run total) at COL Chad Kuhl (RHP) 9.5 K-BB%, 4.82 ERA, 1.43 WHIP: The Phillies’ high powered offense should be popular in all formats and it’s hard to argue considering Kuhl’s track record; last year he failed to impress across 14 starts in his last season as a Pirate.
- HOU (5.1 implied run total) vs LAA Michael Lorenzen (RHP) 5.6 K-BB%, 5.59 ERA, 1.38 WHIP: Lorenzen had an excellent debut as an Angel his last time out, but he’s still an inexperienced starter with suspect control and this is a lineup that can do damage despite the absence of Yordan Alvarez.
- LAD (4.8 implied run total) vs ATL Huascar Ynoa (RHP) 20.2 K-BB%, 4.05 ERA, 1.11 WHIP: Ynoa was erratic in his season debut and that could be a problem against the Dodgers making them a stack for tournaments if you’re looking to get away from Coors Field. Gavin Lux has gotten off to a strong start and is a value 2B option on DraftKings with upside.
- MIL (5.0 implied run total) vs PIT Zach Thompson (RHP) 12.1 K-BB%, 3.24 ERA, 1.21 WHIP: Thompson showed some wide splits across 14 starts with the Marlins last year, allowing a .346 wOBA to LHB as opposed to only .245 to RHB. The Brewers look mispriced on FanDuel, where they are an easy team to stack. Rowdy Tellez is a potential boom/bust value play at 1B.
*Note: All stats referenced are from last season.
Value Bats
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)