(2) Oakland A’s vs. (6) Houston Astros

 

In advance of the Division Series starting today, we’re going to break down each series for you. In this article, we cover the second-seeded A’s series against the sixth-seed Astros, broken down by Jai Correa and Alexander Chase, respectively.

 

Series Schedule

 

Game 1: Monday, October 5, 4:07 PM ET, TBS – Chris Bassitt vs Lance McCullers Jr.

Game 2: Tuesday, October 6, 4:37 PM ET, TBS – Sean Manaea vs Framber Valdez

Game 3: Wednesday, October 7, 3:35 PM ET, TBS – TBD vs Zack Greinke

*Game 4: Thursday, October 8, 3:35 PM ET, TBS – TBD vs TBD

*Game 5: Friday, October 9, 3:35 PM ET, TBS – TBD vs TBD

*If needed. 

 

History

 

There was not much of a contest between these two teams, as the A’s beat the Astros in seven of the ten matchups. Oakland’s formula to winning the season series was preventing Houston from scoring, allowing a meager 25 runs, and not because of their offense, scoring only 38 runs themselves. Arguably the most important note here is that Sean Manaea, Oakland’s Game 2 starter, had his best start of the season against the Astros, going seven innings and giving up one earned run on September 10th.

Two of Houston’s three wins actually came on the same day, as the Astros won both games of a doubleheader on August 29th. Kyle Tucker, who had a .578 OPS against the A’s on the season, had key hits in both games, hitting a three-run home run off Game 1 starter Chris Bassitt in the first game and a three-run triple off of likely Game 3 starter Frankie Montas in the second game.

Furthermore, the Astros’ first three starters in the ALDS also had their fair share of success against the A’s this year.

 

Oakland A’s (36-24)

 

Reviewing the Wild Card Series

The A’s finally broke their playoff series win drought by beating the Chicago White Sox in the Wild Card series. It was a welcome sign to see Marcus Semien and Khris Davis come alive offensively. Semien went 3-for-12 with a double and a home run—a series momentum-changer early in Game 2—while Davis was 2-for-8 with a home run after not starting Game 1.

Jesús Luzardo allowed a couple of home runs in Game 1 and was not nearly as dominant as we’ve been accustomed to seeing. Game 2 starter Chris Bassitt was phenomenal, using an abundance of cutters and sinkers to go seven-plus innings. Mike Fiers was the matchup play to start Game 3 against a right-handed heavy Chicago lineup—luckily Fiers was able to do just enough to give the A’s a chance to come back and move on to the ALDS.

As the A’s focus on the Astros for the next round, there are a couple of things to note from the Wild Card series that will be vitally important going forward.

First, A’s manager Bob Melvin made some questionable decisions in the series. In Game 2, with Oakland up 5-0 in the eighth, Melvin decided to bring on Liam Hendriks to relieve the aforementioned Bassitt. This decision was a direct response to the White Sox having the meat of their order coming up—Yoán Moncada, José Abreu, and Yasmani Grandal. I’d normally be fine with using your best reliever against the opposing team’s best hitters, but in a five-run game? Equipped with the best-performing bullpen in baseball by ERA, the A’s bypassed Yusmeiro Petit (1.66 ERA in 2020), Joakim Soria (2.82 ERA), and Lou Trivino (3.86 ERA), in going with Hendriks. Hendriks had not pitched much prior to that appearance so getting him into that game was understandable. But to risk him throwing too many pitches and potentially not being available for Game 3? It just wasn’t worth it. With Hendriks giving up that two-run shot to Grandal, he had to come back for the ninth in now a 5-2 game, after already throwing 27 pitches. What made it worse was that Hendriks didn’t even finish the game, as the A’s had to burn their second-best reliever Jake Diekman to finish it off.

Additionally, using Fiers for Game 3 was overthinking the situation. Fiers finished the 2020 season with a 4.58 ERA – it doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence, particularly in a potential season-ending game. Melvin chose Fiers over a surging Sean Manaea to pitch a winner-take-all game because it was the ‘matchup play’. Even then, considering Frankie Montas was eventually used for two innings in Game 3, why not start him? You’d get those two innings at the beginning and lead into the resulting bullpen game. The logic was hard to follow and will need to be straightened out if they wish to beat Houston.

Second, we’ve got Sean Murphy. Murphy was absolutely phenomenal with the bat, going 3-for-8 with a home run and two runs batted in out of the ninth spot—it’s worth wondering if he will move up the order to aid the A’s offense. However, the pitch calling is suspect. Going back to Manaea’s start against the Rays in the 2019 AL Wild Card game, where Murphy started behind the plate, 27 of the 46 pitches the lefty threw were fastballs. This against a Rays team that hit .272 against four-seamers last year, good for 11th best. In a game that started with shadows, throwing that many heaters was likely a misstep.

With Luzardo in Game 1, the left-hander threw 20 changeups, 20 four-seamers, 10 two-seamers, and nine curveballs in his 59 pitch outing. Luzardo’s best pitches are his changeup (.266 xwOBA) and curve (.207 xwOBA) while his four-seamer (.350 xwOBA) and two-seamer (.367 xwOBA) lag in comparison. The curve is the pitch I’d like to focus on in particular, as against the White Sox he got four whiffs on six swings with the pitch (67% whiff rate) with a 56% CSW overall. His fastballs, meanwhile, combined for two swings and misses on 30 thrown and were responsible for both home runs he gave up. Simply, Murphy needs to call fewer fastballs.

 

The ALDS

Moving on to the ALDS, there are a few things to highlight.

Here’s the projected roster set-up for Oakland in the ALDS.

 

Houston Astros (29-31)

 

There’s not a terrible lot to say about the Astros that hasn’t been said already. So here are a few of my favorite Astros moments from the past year:

• Assistant general manager Brandon Taubman was fired after harassing female reporters over Roberto Osuna’s performance in the ALCS.
• The Astros joined the Nationals to lose every home game in the World Series. The Astros had home-field advantage and so lost more games.
• Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole wore a Boras corporation hat almost immediately after the team lost, sending a clear signal that he was ready to play elsewhere. He ended up signing with the Yankees in mid-December for $324m over nine years.
• The Mets hired former Astro Carlós Beltran to be their manager. 
• Mike Fiers told the world that the Astros had been cheating, and an Astros fan cataloged every single trash can bang from the 2017 season.
• Manager A.J. Hinch and General Manager Jeff Luhnow were suspended for the year and subsequently fired, but the MLB confirmed that their suspensions would have counted even if no games had been played.
• The Mets fired former Astro Carlós Beltran before the first game of the season for being a key part of the cheating scandal.
• George Springer tried to silence hecklers at spring training and swung through a pitch so hard that he ended up on one knee.
• Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly, who was not a part of the 2017 Dodgers team that lost to the Astros and who won a World Series with a Boston team also accused of cheating, threw behind Alex Bregman and was suspended eight games.
• Astros’ hitting coach Alex Cintrón received a 20-game suspension for inciting a fight between his team and Ramón Laureano after Laureano took first on a HBP. He ducked behind his own players immediately after it started.
• The team became the first AL team since the 1994 Texas Rangers to make the playoffs with a losing record.

For some, the story behind the Astros is pretty clear: they’re the villain, they know it, and seeing them fail is the only satisfying conclusion. Carlos Correa’s post-series words to reporters capture the Astros as their opponents want to see them: “I know a lot of people are mad. I know a lot of people don’t want to see us here. But what are they going to say now?” If this is the Astros you know, it’s easy to see them as just angry, a little self-congratulatory, and easy to root against.

But this team is more interesting than a one-dimensional exercise in hubris. In a year where the veterans were hard to rely on, key young contributors stepped up to keep the team afloat. You might think that this is still José Altuve’s team. But judging solely on 2020, this team belongs to Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker.

 

Reviewing the Wild Card Round

The Astros fell into the sixth seed thanks to generous (I’d argue broken) rules that favor divisional standings over games won. As a result, they faced off against the Minnesota Twins, who entered the matchup as heavy favorites according to more than a few analysts. I’ve written previously about how parity rather than short three-game series will be the culprit when favorites lose, and the Astros managed to demonstrate that.

The Astros’ rotation showed up in this series, throwing a combined line of 2 earned runs over 16.2 innings pitched. They notably avoided using their bullpen, instead piggybacking Greinke and Valdez in Game 1 and then Urquidy and Javier in Game 2. Their offense wasn’t dominant but managed to string together hits against the Twins’ bullpen to take both games. Correa and Tucker both contributed three hits apiece and Michael Brantley added two RBI and two runs.

 

Offense

The Astros’ offense has been the target of most of the league’s ire, being the architects and main beneficiaries of their cheating system. But they’ve also been underperformers compared to average, prompting some close looks into the team’s past performances as well. I’ll save you having to read yet another long, speculative screed against them. This is a team full of underperformers, but it’s also been full of players who’ve played through injuries in order to get their team into the playoffs. With a few weeks to work their way into health under their belt, the Astros’ starting lineup might be at its non-Yordan Álvarez best just in time.

Despite clear platoon splits and struggles, the lineup as arranged above doesn’t change depending on who’s pitching. I’d caution against putting too much stock into the team’s wRC+ splits in the same way we’d look at the White Sox because of their previous injury issues, but the players’ individual numbers do suggest this is a team that should be stronger against righties going forward.

As built, their lineup keeps struggling the second baseman entrenched in the second spot. I took a deeper look into both his issues and the effect it’s had on the team’s scoring chances before their series against the Twins, but the long story short has been a slight waste of George Springer’s monster season while also placing the largest RISP burden on breakout star Kyle Tucker. Since a breakout game at Coors Field on August 19 where he hit two triples and a home run, he’s led the team with a 172 wRC+. He added three more hits and two RBI against the Twins and looks every bit the part of the hitter who hit a combined 68 home runs in AAA in 2018 and 2019.

The team certainly has a few moves it can make if it wants to shake things up. Either Altuve or Josh Reddick could be dropped against righties for Aledmys Díaz, who has been a career reverse-splits hitter. But otherwise, this is a team lacking in depth that it can trust based on 2020 results. It’s worth noting, though, that Abraham Toro and Myles Straw were underperformers relative to their Statcast results, suggesting that they can add more than they’ve shown given the chance.

 

Rotation

After losing both Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander to free agency and elbow issues, the Astros’ rotation was on track to be a disaster. The team did have Lance McCullers Jr. returning from Tommy John surgery and their first full season of Zack Greinke to rely on, but the depth looked likely to run out quickly. That depth was further strained with José Urquidy was unable to report to summer camp on time. The rotation they’ll rely on during the ALDS won’t feature either Brandon Bielak or Josh James, both of whom had FIP numbers well above 8 as starters.

Thanks to an exceptionally weak group of opposing hitters to close the season, the team’s rotation had a few weeks to get right. It seems like they’ve mostly done that. Since their slate of games coded as “green” on Nick’s ROS tracker started on September 15, McCullers hasn’t allowed an earned run and both Urquidy and Valdez have sub-3.00 ERA numbers. It does look like Greinke somewhat missed the boat — his last regular-season game in which he gave up fewer than three earned runs came on August 18 at the Rockies.

The Astros used their rotation heavily and creatively against the Twins, giving 16.1 of their 18 available innings to them. In Game 1, Dusty Baker gave Greinke the hook after just five innings, only to give the last four innings to Framber Valdez. The move paid off: Valdez pitched three no-hit innings before allowing two baserunners in the ninth. Baker then tried the same move in Game 2, pulling Urquidy in the fifth and then handing Javier the ball in the sixth, only for him to throw three no-hit innings. The team’s starters combined to give up just two runs on six hits, but did walk nine over these two games.

Without the ability to piggyback his starters in a no-rest five-game series, Baker will have to rely on his crew to put in some work. That’s nothing new, of course: Houston was fourth in the MLB in innings pitched by starters. And while that has meant that they’ve been stung by some overbaked starters — of Framber Valdez‘ eight earned runs against the Angels on September 6, four before he was lifted in the eighth inning without recording an out — their starters do have the MLB’s sixth-best FIP in the seventh inning or later. It will be worth watching, though, whether Baker goes to Javier for a multi-inning save early in the series in an effort to close things out in fewer than five games.

 

Bullpen

If you’re curious as to why Dusty Baker didn’t give more innings to his bullpen, it’s not all that hard to figure out. Brooks Raley and Ryan Pressly both saw brief action against the Twins. But beyond them, there just isn’t much to trust.

 

History

For two teams in the same division, the Astros and A’s don’t have a long history. Of the 149 total games they’ve played, all but six have happened since the Astros moved from the NL Central to the AL West in 2013. The A’s dominated the Astros while they were at their Benny Hill nadir right after the move, winning 15 of their 19 games in that first year. But between the start of the Astros’ contention window 2015 and its unofficial close in 2019, the Astros never lost the season series again the A’s. It was only this year that the A’s broke that streak, going 7–3 against them and pulling ahead in the lifetime series, 75–74.

But it’s no surprise that a series which has never run quite as hot as many other in-division rivalries could suddenly boil over. The Cintrón-Laureano fight came after one of the seven HBP by Houston’s pitching staff in the season series. The Astros hit just 29 opposing batters on the year. The poor command wasn’t reciprocated: Oakland plunked just one Houston batter in their ten-game series compared to 15 on the year.

For all the Astros’ issues with their starting rotation, their projected rotation is just 2–6 against the Astros this year. But that’s hardly been the issue. In their seven losses, they never score more than two runs. In their three wins, they never scored fewer than four. The Astros’ team ERA against the A’s of 3.87 was actually lower than their season-long mark of 4.20 and would have ranked ninth overall, just behind the Padres. Instead, it was cold bats that doomed the Astros. As a team, they mustered just a 62 wRC+ in their ten games, hitting just.205/.259/.326 with 25 runs scored.

 

Predictions

 

Given Houston’s shaky rotation, sputtering offense, and a near disaster in the bullpen, it’s shocking the Astros made it this far. Oakland has the rotation, timely offense, and lethal bullpen to put this series away early – it’s just a question of whether Sean Murphy’s game-calling (and overall gameplan) and Bob Melvin’s strategy are up to par. A’s in three. 

— Jai Correa

 

Houston isn’t the powerhouse it thinks it is, but it also isn’t the cupcake its enemies see it as. The Astros win McCullers’ start and one of the next two but run out of gas trying to close it out. A’s in five.

— Alexander Chase

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)