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Thor may have found his Mjölnir, so start him against the Phillies tonight.
8 Games- 7:05 PM ET
Must Play SP: Noah Syndergaard, NYM ($19,400) vs. PHI
This comes down to the matchup for me, as Max Scherzer is mostly dominant but playing a Cubs team that’s rolling, and Thor is facing a Phillies team that’s bottom five in wRC+ over the last week. While Nick stated in the SP Roundup he didn’t see anything out of Syndergaard that makes him think a corner has been turned on the BABIP issues, I’d be willing to roll the dice on getting the B+ version of Thor that’ll go six innings, two earned runs, and seven-ish strikeouts.
Honorable Mention: Max Scherzer ($24,300)
Value SP: Gio Gonzalez, MIL ($13,200) vs. SF
In his first start as a Brewer, Gio has been blessed with the reeling Giants, who have been the worst offense in baseball recently. Not only have they struggled at the plate of late, they’ve struggled against LHP all season (tied for fourth lowest wRC+ against lefties). I acknowledge that Gio got smacked around against Miami and that’s a similar offense to what he’s facing tonight, but he’s also had two excellent starts in August.
Honorable Mention: Felix Hernandez ($13,000)
IF: Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($9,700) @ ARI (Julio Teheran)
Teheran is one of the greatest fake aces of the last few years. His August ERA was below three, but his xFIP above four. The first half of 2016 saw the same. Suntrust Park was built for Freddie Freeman, not Teheran. On to Goldschmidt, the man has an OPS of 1.417 since the start of September, an identical BB% and K%, and has made less than 12% soft contact. With over 80% of his batted balls coming by way of line drive or fly ball, there’s a very high likelihood he hits one out at the launching pad in Atlanta.
Honorable Mention: Anthony Rizzo ($8,100)
OF: Mike Trout, LAA ($10,500) @ CWS (James Shields)
If there’s any player who can recognize a flaw in his game and adjust to correct quickly, it’s Mike Trout. His GB/FB rate in September is 2.5, which is obviously not ideal. He’s making 44% soft contact on batted balls; also not ideal. His OBP is at .500 though, so he’s showing the same patience he has all season and is likely just off on timing. I understand not wanting to take a chance on that in a daily lineup, but Trout has homered off Shields three times in just thirteen at-bats.
Honorable Mention: Bryce Harper ($9,000)
Value Hitter: Matt Holliday, COL ($7,200) vs. LAD (Walker Buehler)
I made the mistake of thinking Holliday had retired. Seeing how he’s played since signing with the Rockies, I understand why he wasn’t ready to retire. It’s only 16 plate appearances, but he’s 6-for-12 with two extra base hits and four walks. Adjustment period be damned! He’s better against lefties, but the way he’s been playing Bud Black shouldn’t bench him. Playing at Coors and having a price this low is difficult to pass up.
Honorable Mention: Ian Happ ($6,600)
Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants (Chris Stratton)
You may have noticed I have Stratton as an honorable mention value pitcher. His last three starts have been very strong, but the three prior to that were disgustingly bad. The Brewers have the seventh highest team OPS in September, one spot behind the Washington Nationals, but the guys on the Brewers who have been producing are relatively cheap. Manny Pina, Ryan Braun, and Orlando Arcia are all priced under $8,000, and if you have enough budget you know I’ll always recommend Christian Yelich.
Honorable Mention: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers