Pitcher List is proud to partner with DraftKings for the 2019 season. We’ll be featuring our top picks for every daily slate through the season and feature articles dedicated to the GPP.
Top Play SP: Shane Bieber, CLE ($11,800) vs. KC
This afternoon’s 11-game slate is led by the Indian’s Shane Bieber who gets a home date against the Royals. Bieber has been nothing short of phenomenal in his second big league season so far he’s sitting at a 25.8% K-BB%, 5.1% BB%, 3.33 SIERA, and a sparkling 1.00 WHIP. Last year, Bieber had some issues with LHB allowing a .385 wOBA. This year? All the way down to .285! Thanks in part to his curve taking a big step forward and returning a whopping 50.5% whiff rate against lefties. He’s the top dog today and should have no problem dispatching the lowly Royals (.301 team wOBA and 84 wRC+ vs RHP). The Indians are massive (-310) home favorites today.
Honorable mention: Nola, PHI ($11,000) at MIA (Elieser Hernandez)
Value SP: Framber Valdez, HOU ($6,600) vs LAA
This looks like a really tough slate for bargain pitching so we’ll go with a risky option in Framber Valdez. He’ll be making his first appearance in the majors since a little over a month ago. He’s struggled with his control (11.4% BB% rate) which highlights the risk potential here. The one thing he has also shown though is some serious bat missing ability evidenced by a 38.3% K rate in AAA this year (44.1 IP) and 30.5 % K rate back in AA in 2018 (94.1 IP). He’s also been stretched out having hit the 100 pitch mark in each of his previous two starts for AAA Round Rock. He and the Astros are big home favorites (-211) today with the visiting Angels holding an implied total of just over 4 runs. Now if only he can manage to pitch around Mike Trout. Easier said than done.
Honorable mention: Lopez, CWS ($7,900) vs TEX (Brock Burke).
Top Play: OF Yasiel Puig, CLE ($4,400) vs. KC
Lefty Eric Skoglund will be making his triumphant return to the Major Leagues today. Through 70 innings last year he wasn’t effective with just a 10.6% K-BB% and 4.68 SIERA to go along with a 45.4% hard-hit rate and .351 xWOBA. The Indians look like a team whose bats we should have a lot of interest in this afternoon with their current implied total installed at just under six runs. Switch-hitting Carlos Santana has been one of Cleveland’s best hitters against LHP this year posting a .411 wOBA and 156 wRC+. Splits-wise, Yasiel Puig has actually been far better against RHP (.362 wOBA and 131 wRC+) than LHP (.328 wOBA and 108 wRC+) for his career. But this just looks like a fantastic price for the Indians cleanup hitter especially considering the plus matchup.
Honorable mentions: 1B Paul Goldschmidt ($4,200) vs COL (Antonio Senzatela); 1B Peter Alonso ($4,800) vs. ATL (Dallas Keuchel); 3B Josh Donaldson ($4,500) at NYM (Steven Matz); OF Corey Dickerson ($4,200) at MIA (Elieser Hernandez); 1B Jose Abreu ($4,600) vs TEX (Brock Burke).
Top Play: 3B/SS Alex Bregman, HOU ($5,400) vs. LAA
The Astros look like a team we will want a piece of today as their implied total of over six runs is right at the top of the board. Jaime Barria has shown some major reverse splits through his early career allowing a .380 wOBA against RHB compared to just .284 against LHB. So by the numbers, we’ll want to target the Astros righties here. Over the past two years, Alex Bregman has accumulated a .391 wOBA and 152 wRC+ against righties. He should see plenty of run-scoring opportunities today against Barria who has also allowed an 11.8% (bottom 4% of the league) barrel rate this year. His teammate, the leadoff man George Springer (.355 wOBA, .327 wRC+ vs RHP 2018-19) is also a fantastic play if you’re looking to spend up on another bat.
Honorable mentions: OF George Springer ($5,100) vs. LAA (Barria); SS Francisco Lindor ($5,200) vs. KC (Skoglund); 1B Carlos Santana ($5,400) vs. KC (Skoglund); OF Austin Meadows ($5,200) at BAL (Bundy).
Value: OF Franmil Reyes, CLE ($3,800) vs KC
We’ll go back to the Indians once again in their match against the lefty throwing Skoglund. Franmil Reyes has struggled after the trade from San Diego, but one thing is also certain the man has absolutely mauled lefties through his first two seasons to the tune of a .375 wOBA and 135 wRC+. Recent struggles aside, Reyes is worth a long look today as there is big power potential here at a very cheap price.
Honorable mentions: OF Eloy Jimenez ($4,000) vs. TEX (Burke); 3B/OF J.D. Davis ($3,800) vs ATL (Keuchel); 2B Kolten Wong ($3,800) vs COL (Senzatela); OF Josh Rojas ($2,700) at MIL (Davies); OF Adam Duvall ($3,700) at NYM (Matz); SS Amed Rosario ($3,900) vs ATL (Keuchel); OF Dexter Fowler ($4,000) vs. COL (Senzatela).
Top Stack: STL vs COL (Senzatela)
This is an interesting slate for offense. As mentioned earlier the Indians have what looks like to be an exploitable matchup against the recently recalled Skoglund, the Astros get a solid matchup against the righty Barria, and the Rays get to visit Camden Yards in a boom/bust spot against Dylan Bundy who is, at the very least, capable of pitching well from time to time. We’ll focus instead on the Cardinals against the righty Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela has easily the worst K-BB% of the slate sitting at an alarmingly bad 1.9% through 93 IP. He’s also allowed a .361 xwOBA and 43.8% hard-hit rate. Granted a good portion of his appearances have been at Coors regardless he looks like one of the slate’s most susceptible pitchers. The nice thing about the Cardinals is that their projected lineup has some solid value at the top with Dexter Fowler ($4,000) and Kolten Wong ($3,800) who could look to benefit from Senzatela’s big struggles against lefties (.401 wOBA allowed to LHB this year). Marcell Ozuna (.337 wOBA and 111 wRC+ vs RHP 2018-19), Paul Goldschmidt (.357 wOBA, 122 wRC+ vs RHP 2018-19), and Paul DeJong (.331 wOBA and 106 wRC+ vs RHP 2018-19) round out the plus options here. Also keep an eye out on Matt Carpenter if he cracks the lineup today. You’d be hard pressed to find a hitter whose been a bigger disappointment this year, but at $3,700 he’s at the very least worth considering as a potential value play.
Honorable mentions: CLE vs KC (Skoglund); TB at BAL (Bundy); HOU vs LAA (Barria); PHI at MIA (Hernandez).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.