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Top Play SP: Carlos Carrasco, CLE ($10,600) vs. TOR
Carlos Carrasco will look to bounce back from a really rough first start of the year, where he went 4.1 IP, 6 ERs. Carrasco will face the struggling Blue Jays, who are averaging just two runs per game over their last five games and have an implied run total of 3.2. The Blue Jays lineup may be without Justin Smoak, as he was out of the lineup Friday due to a sore neck. Sign me up to have Carrasco in my cash lineups.
Value SP: Yonny Chirinos, TBR ($6,900) @ SFG
Used to following an opener, Yonny Chirinos got a surprise start on March 31st, and he did not disappoint. He managed to hold the Astros to one run on two hits over seven innings while striking out six and walking none. As of this writing, Chirinos hasn’t officially been named the starter, so he might end up going overlooked on today’s slate. He gets an elite match-up in San Francisco to face the Giants, who will feature zero hitters with greater than a .200 ISO versus right-handed pitchers. In addition to the park-bump, Chirinos also gets the added bump of facing the pitcher.
Top Play: 2B/OF Whit Merrifield, KCR ($4,700) @ DET
“Hard Hit” Whit Merrifield hits lefties, well, hard. In 418 career plate appearances versus left-handed pitchers, he has a 39.5% hard-hit rate and a .374 wOBA. Merrifield and the Royals face the owner of a 0.00 ERA, Matt Moore. In 2018, Moore allowed a .390 wOBA to right-handed batters, en route to a 6.79 ERA. While the Royals are only projected to have a 4.1 implied run total, I really like the Royals as a sneaky stack. Combining Merrifield with Adalberto Mondesi and Jorge Soler seems like a really nice combo against Matt Moore.
Honorable mention: OF Mitch Haniger, SEA ($4,400) @ CHW.
Top Play: 1B Cody Bellinger, LAD ($5,800) @ COL
The Dodgers face the Rockies in our first Coors event if the season. Colorado will roll out Jon Gray, who managed to strike out ten Marlins in his first start. Typical Gray; lure us in with the good one and here comes the haymaker. Cody Bellinger is priced up but smashes in Coors. In 61 plate appearances, he has a triple slash of .327/.426/.558, and for what its worth, has six hits in nine plate appearances versus Gray. The high price should keep ownership relatively low.
Value: OF Brett Gardner, NYY ($4,000) @ BAL
Brett Gardner will lead off the Yankees lineup and gets a matchup against 2018’s home run champ, Dylan Bundy. In 2018, Bundy allowed homers at a 2.19 HR/9 rate. For reference, Mike Fiers allowed the second highest HR/9 rate at 1.67. In other words, Bundy was far and away the best at allowing home runs. Gardner should get on base plenty in this game and pile up the points.
Top Stack: Dodgers @ Rockies (RHP Jon Gray)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.5 runs in the second game in Coors of the year. Game one saw 16 total runs, and the Dodgers face Jon Gray, who’s coming off a decent start on the road versus the Marlins. I’ve never been in on Gray, and the one time I decided he was good he stopped striking batters out (check out game log for where he burned me on 8/27 and 9/01). DraftKings did a good job of pricing Coors bats up, but I love Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, and Corey Seager in addition to Bellinger.
Honorable mention: Yankees @ Orioles (RHP Dylan Bundy).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.