DFS Plays of the Day – September 9

Thursday night brings us another five-game slate and four on FanDuel, as they are omitting the 6:40 PM EST game between the Mets and Marlins. For a short slate, there are quite a few pitching options that you could make a case for.

Tonight’s Pitching

	Opp	ML	Salary (DK/FD)	IP	K-BB%	CSW%	SwStr%	WHIP	ERA	xERA
Huascar Ynoa	vs WSN	-229	$8.6/ $8.8	67.2	20.1%	31%	12.5%	1.00	3.19	4.37
Marcus Stroman	at MIA	-170	$9,400 (DK)	156.2	15.2%	28.3%	11.6%	1.15	2.93	4.28
John Means	vs KC	-125	$7.1/ $8.1	119.1	18.5%	27.8%	12.3%	1.00	3.47	3.90
Ranger Suárez	vs COL	-192	$7.4/ $8.6	72	14.9%	27.7%	10.4%	1.03	1.38	2.79
José Berríos	at NYY	104	$9.2/ $9.1	159.2	19.7%	28.6%	9.8%	1.11	3.55	4.25
Carlos Hernández	at BAL	115	$6.3/ $7.6	70.2	13.1%	26.3%	11.8%	1.22	3.57	3.69
Jesús Luzardo	vs NYM	156	$6,700 (DK)	72	10.5%	27.3%	12.9%	1.65	7.00	5.53

Marcus Stroman is a strong road favorite against the Marlins, a team we’ve been targeting all year, as they have just a .294 team wOBA (third lowest) on the year along with a 26.1% K rate (second highest).

José Berríos is an interesting option in that he’s just about the same price as Stroman on DraftKings but should appear on far fewer rosters. On paper, it’s not an ideal setup for Berríos at Yankee Stadium. But we’ve seen this lineup fall asleep before. Last night, the Yankee offense was silent yet again save a home run from Brett Gardner, just like we all expected.

Huascar Ynoa should definitely gain some traction as the strongest favorite on the board (-229). He might be over-performing a touch though, considering his 3.19 ERA/4.37 xERA, as well as a .281 wOBA allowed versus a .318 xwOBA. The Nationals have been a productive offense, too. Since August 1st, their team wOBA of .331 ranks seventh, just behind the Reds. And they’ve also been stingy with strikeouts, with just a 21.0% K rate in that span.

Ranger Suárez is a huge home favorite (-192) against the Rockies, whose road wOBA of .273 ranks dead-last. Suárez pitched well his last time out, though it’s worth noting that he didn’t come out for the sixth inning after just 71 pitches as he was dealing with some minor triceps soreness, so he could be looking at a shorter pitch count.

Carlos Hernández is an interesting play as an SP2 on DraftKings at just $6,300. He’s shown some strikeout ability, led by his slider, which has returned a 40.2% whiff rate. The control is suspect, though (10.7% BB rate), making him a volatile option, especially considering tonight’s venue is hitter-friendly Camden Yards. On a similar note is Jesús Luzardo. Overall, he’s had a dreadful season, but he did show a glimmer of hope in his outing against Cincinnati a couple of turns ago, tossing six scoreless innings with eight Ks and a 31.9% CSW. A potential key change we’ve seen over his past two starts is a drop in fastball %. That could be crucial for him as it’s been the fastball that has really let him down this year.

Bats and Stacks

ATL (6.1) vs WSN Erick Fedde (RHP) 12.3% K-BB, .335 xwOBA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.90 xERA: Atlanta gets the top billing with their implied total of just over six runs. As far as splits go, Fedde has been pretty close to neutral this year, although his K rate does dip to just 18.9% against lefties. Freddie Freeman is in contention for the top bat on the slate. Jorge Soler has really flipped the switch since the trade to Atlanta, where he has put up a .911 OPS, compared to just .658 with the Royals earlier this year. The other side of this game is interesting from a tournament perspective. Ynoa should be a popular option, which might make the Nationals bats a little off the radar. Juan Soto (.426 xwOBA) seems like a good tournament swerve in the outfield off Bryce Harper in that price range.

PHI (5.0) vs COL Antonio Senzatela (RHP) 11.2% K-BB, .324 xwOBA, 1.31 WHIP, 4.55 xERA: Senzatela is a curious case in that he’s actually fared worse on the road as opposed to Coors Field. For his career, he has a 4.96 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 255.2 IP. At home, he has a 4.66 and 1.36 in 299.1 IP. Go figure. Bryce Harper will get a lot of attention tonight across all formats and rightfully so. On paper, it’s safe to ignore the Rockies, as Suárez has pitched well. For tournaments though, considering a bat like C.J. Cron as a contrarian option could pay off.

TOR at NYY (4.8) Néstor Cortes (LHP) 18.4% K-BB, .262 xwOBA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.90 xERA: Through nine starts, Cortes has been fantastic for the Yankees. But so have the Jays, whose .337 team wOBA leads baseball. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.�almost had a quiet game last night. Thank goodness for Aroldis Chapman. Speaking of which, this Yankee pen is in tatters right now, adding to the incentive for stacking the Jays. Alejandro Kirk is an affordable option at catcher who has shown some upside. And the Yankees? They’ve been dreadful lately, but there is upside in tournaments. At least, I think there is. Playing the splits for Berríos, he has allowed a .337 xwOBA to LHB, as opposed to just a .297 mark against RHB going back to last year.

NYM (4.3) at MIA Jesús Luzardo (LHP) 10.5% K-BB, .353 xwOBA, 1.65 WHIP, 5.53 xERA: As mentioned earlier, Luzardo’s numbers on the year are an eyesore but he might be set up for a strong finish, considering his waning fastball usage in recent starts. RHB have touched up Luzardo for a .368 xwOBA, so there is your incentive to consider Pete Alonso. Otherwise, there doesn’t seem to be a standout option here. J.D. Davis could be a punt option at $2,200 on DraftKings if the Mets decide to dust him off. On the other side of this game, Stroman has been notably worse against LHB, adding some potential with Jesús Sánchez as a punt option and Jazz Chisholm as an option at 2B/SS from the leadoff spot.

BAL (4.9) vs Carlos Hernández (RHP) 13.1% K-BB, .294 xwOBA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.68 xERA: It’s Camden Yards so there have to be runs scored, right? The Orioles are the marginal favorite there tonight (-115) but Hernández has pitched very well so far this year, so I’m not sure there’s a play here that really sticks out. Anthony Santander is cheap on DraftKings. Cedric Mullins, however, has easily been the most productive bat here. The other side of this game features another very capable pitcher in John Means, who has been effective, with just a 4.4% walk rate while limiting hitters to just a .302 xwOBA.

Value Bats

	Position	Opp	DraftKings	FanDuel
Jesús Sánchez	OF	vs NYM (Stroman)	$2,600
Anthony Santander	OF	vs KC (Hernández)	$3,500	$3,400
Joc Pederson	OF	vs WSN (Fedde)	$3,500	$2,500
Keibert Ruiz	C	at ATL (Ynoa)	$3,300	$2,300
Alejandro Kirk	C	at NYY (Cortes)	$3,800	$2,600
Austin Hays	OF	vs KC (Hernández)	$3,200	$2,800
Gleyber Torres	SS	vs TOR (Berríos)	$3,200	$2,900

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

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DFS Plays of the Day – September 9

Ryan Amore

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