DFS Plays of the Day – June 6

Rich takes a look at the best DFS plays for Sunday's Main Slate.

Happy Sunday! Both FanDuel and DraftKings feature 10 game main slates starting at 1:05. Both have cut the Coors game off the slate, hopefully making our batting choices less chalky than they’ve been over the last couple of days (i/e 70%+ rostered Mark Canha and Chad Pinder). On the weather front, it looks like all of the games will be dry on what should be a hot and humid day. So grab a pop, pull up a chair, and enjoy some Sunday baseball. Let’s dive into the plays!

 

Cash Starting Pitchers

 

One of our DFS writers, Dave Swan, had the idea of shaking things up in our DFS format, so I’ll take the first stab at it, but don’t be surprised if it changes some moving forward. We’re going to go through my favorite cash and GPP options at starting pitcher and then we’ll do the same for our stacks.

There are three starting pitchers on today’s slate that stand out above the rest and are in cash consideration for me – Sandy Alcantara ($9,500 DK, $8,700 FD) at PIT, Corbin Burnes ($11,000 DK, $11,000 FD) vs ARI, and Dylan Cease ($9,400 DK, $7,600 FD) vs DET. Of the three, I’m most likely using Dylan Cease in my cash lineups on FanDuel. His salary is clearly mispriced and saving that cash will allow me to pay up with my stacks. It helps that the Tigers strike out at a 27% rate against right-handed pitchers.

On DraftKings, I’ll likely use both Alcantara and Cease for my cash lineups, as there isn’t a cheap starting pitcher that REALLY stands out. If you forced me to pick one, I think it would be Michael Wacha ($5,800 DK, $7,000 FD) against the Rangers. Texas has a projected run total of 4.2 runs, which is the fifth-lowest on the slate. That being said, Wacha has struggled with allowing the long ball, which scares me a little when you see Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe. The only thing that gives me a little solace is that Wacha for his career sports reverse splits, meaning he’s better against lefties than he is against righties. At his low price, we really don’t need him to do anything spectacular to pay off his price tag.

 

GPP Starting Pitchers

 

So, a peek behind the curtain, we don’t have access to ownership projections, so I’m making educated guesses when it comes to calling a player “lower rostered”. When you’re looking for a good GPP option, you’re looking for a good pitcher that has a tough matchup. Usually, because of that matchup, people are more likely to steer clear and instead, will head over to one of our safer options. In GPPs, I’m always looking for upside. Trevor Bauer ($10,700 DK, $10,500 FD) always has 10+ K upside but faces a tough Atlanta Braves team. That matchup should keep his ownership down. Bauer also serves as a direct pivot off Corbin Burnes. If Burnes gets rocked at 35%+ ownership, while Bauer pitches a gem of a game, you’re in a great spot.

A cheaper pitcher that I like for GPP purposes is Caleb Smith ($7,000 DK, $6,600 FD) who faces the Brewers. Milwaukee has a projected run total of 4.6 runs which is tied for seventh-highest on the slate, however, the Brewers strike out at a 28% rate against left-handed pitchers. Smith has been good to start the year, albeit in a long-reliever role. However, he started against the Mets in his last appearance and went five solid innings. At his price, if the Brewers’ swing and miss are in full effect, Smith could be the key to a big takedown.

 

Cash Hitter Stacks

 

Choosing the stacks that I wanted to use for cash purposes was surprisingly tough. The teams with the highest implied run totals – Indians and Orioles – face each other and are in the bottom five in the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. I’m more likely to use one-offs of José Ramírez or Trey Mancini than to do a full-stack. The three teams that I’m looking to stack for cash games are the White Sox, Twins, and Royals. The White Sox are a little pricy, but get a matchup against José Ureña and the Detroit bullpen that has allowed 136 runs to cross the plate over 200 innings thrown. With the White Sox, I’m likely to stick towards the top and pay up for bats like Tim Anderson ($5,000 DK, $3,700 FD), José Abreu ($5,400 DK, $3,500 FD), and Yoán Moncada ($5,400 DK, $3,500).

Like the White Sox, the Twins are a little more on the expensive side, but they have the pop to win you a slate. The Twins as a whole are top-10 in both isolated slugging and team wOBA against right-handed pitchers and strike out just 22% of the time. They’ll face Brady Singer, who has allowed three or more runs in five of his last six starts, including 11 runs over his last two starts. The big bopper Twins of Nelson Cruz ($5,500 DK, $3,300 FD), Josh Donaldson ($4,800 DK, $3,400 FD), and Jorge Polanco ($4,600 DK, $3,200 FD) are pretty pricy, but you can add guys like Alex Kirilloff ($4,500 DK, $2,500 FD) and Ryan Jeffers ($3,000 DK, $2,200 FD) to make things work.

With the White Sox and Twins being a little pricy, we’ll have to save some cash on our second stack. That’s where the Royals come into play. Over the last seven games, the Royals have averaged 8.5 runs per game and their pricing has yet to catch up to the hot streak. They face 6’9″ Bailey Ober, who allowed a pair of homers in his first MLB appearance. While I like Whit Merrifield ($5,300 DK, $3,400 FD) and Salvador Perez ($5,000 DK, $3,200 FD), I also like the cheaper bats of Andrew Benintendi ($3,600 DK, $3,100 FD), Carlos Santana ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD), and Hunter Dozier ($3,300 DK, $2,600 FD).

 

 

GPP Hitter Stacks

 

Without expected ownership, picking out a GPP stack can be tough, but we’ll do our best. With an implied run total of just 4.2 runs, it’s easy to overlook the Rays. However, for the year, the Rays have the fourth-best team wRC+ and eighth-best isolated slugging against right-handed pitchers. The Rays will face Dane Dunning who has had some blowups to start the year, including allowing seven earned runs to the Angels two starts ago. Those are the games we’re trying to spike in our GPP stacks. Lower rostered teams that could spike a 10 spot. From the Rays, I like Austin Meadows ($5,600 DK, $4,500 FD), Brandon Lowe ($4,900 DK, $3,000), and Joey Wendle ($4,900 DK, $2,900 FD). If you need to save some salary, you can head down to the bottom of the order  with Brett Phillips ($2,000 DK, $2,000 FD), who is min-priced on both sites.

Finally, I like the Reds, who may be a little sneakier as they face John Gant, who has been the bane of my DFS existence. Gant has somehow strung together a 1.60 ERA while walking 15% of the batters he’s faced. He currently sports a 5.67 SIERA and I’ve bet against him every time he’s taken the mound. I’m a glutton for punishment so I’m not stopping now. The Reds are really cheap, as no one is priced over $4,100 on DraftKings (FanDuel is another story, so I probably won’t get to them there). With them being so cheap, I want the heavy hitters of Nick Castellanos ($4,100 DK, $4,000 FD) and Jesse Winker ($4,100 DK, $4,300 FD).

Good luck today!

 

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Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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