Happy Saturday! Today is a sort of weird split schedule with both sites offering different slates. For our purposes today, I’m going to be focusing on the ten-game slate starting at 2 PM EST on DraftKings.
Top Tier Pitching
Cash Game Bats
On DraftKings, the majority of rosters should once again be keyed in on the Blue Jays as they square off against another inexperienced Orioles pitcher, in this case the southpaw Keegan Akin. He carries a 6.42 ERA into today’s contest but that’s probably harsh based on his 4.63 xERA. Going back to last season, he’s allowed a .326 xwOBA to RHB, while striking them out at a decent clip of 24.3%. Still, the line makers couldn’t care less installing the Jays as massive favorites (-266) with an implied total approaching six and a half runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr./strong> is going to be very tough to afford alongside deGrom but it’s another potential eruption spot for him and the Jays. The key, from a value perspective, will be George Springer, who remains way too cheap at $3,700 on DraftKings.
The Twins are another offense that I wouldn’t hesitate to target in any format. Sam Hentges has not distinguished himself thus far to put it mildly with a 6.40 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. Righties have also pummeled him to the tune of a .399 xwOBA. Both Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz are excellent spends here. Luis Arráez is a potential value at 2B on DraftKings at $3,500 if he’s back in the leadoff spot in spite of the L/L matchup. Ryan Jeffers is a potential cheap power option at catcher too. While Miguel Sanó makes for an upside bat here as a part of tournament stack. The lefties in Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, or Trevor Larnach would be differentiation plays for tournament stacks.
The White Sox have an implied total of just under five runs. I do think that Logan Gilbert is starting to come around, however, you can definitely target the White Sox today. I would look mostly to the lefties as Gilbert’s K rate drops off noticeably from 31.3% against righties to just 20% against lefties. From that standpoint, Jake Lamb is a potential value play if he finds himself in the top half of the order.
This may be contrarian on my part, but I’m very much interested in the Marlins today. Patrick Corbin could gain some traction as a mid-range option but as mentioned earlier, I’m not convinced quite yet. He’s allowed a dreadful .373 xwOBA to righties going back to last year and that comes with just a 17.5% K rate. Jesús Sánchez is my favorite value today, he’s got massive raw power and posted a .442 wOBA with Triple-A Jacksonville prior to his call up. It is a L/L matchup but at the stone minimum on DraftKings there’s very little opportunity cost. Adam Duvall and Jesús Aguilar are also priced affordably here too. While Jorge Alfaro is a potential punt play at catcher. Starling Marte is not a bad option either but he doesn’t carry the same sort of power upside as the other options here and is priced at less of a value so he doesn’t stick out as much to me.
Alex Cobb has pitched well so far this year and he’s also been effective against lefties holding them to a .264 xwOBA. Still, I’m looking at Wander Franco again as an all formats type of play considering that SS is lacking any sort of clear option. That is, of course, you can somehow manage to squeeze in Bo Bichette.
Zach Thompson is an interesting name to keep an eye on moving forward as he’s shown an impressive 29.2% K rate through his first three starts. However, he’s also shown some very loud splits, his K rate dips all the way down to 17.4% against lefties and he’s also coughed up a .384 wOBA against them too. I suppose Kyle Schwarber week can continue. Better yet, why not target Juan Soto? He’s a premier spend up target for all formats.
The key for tournaments could be figuring out this Cincinnati/ Atlanta game. Luis Castillo has put together a couple of decent starts now and knowing his past reputation as an ace that could suppress the popularity of Atlanta bats in tournaments. Ronald Acuña Jr./strong> is a phenomenal target in tournaments. Selecting star hitters against volatile pitchers is a perfect sort of thing for that format. On the flip side, the Reds have shown excellent power and no one is going to want to target hitters against Ian Anderson, making someone like Jesse Winker, who absolutely obliterates righties as we know another fun target in tournaments. Don’t forget this game in tournaments, there’s power on both sides in a venue that really adds to that upside in the GABP.
I’ll be honest, I don’t really want to target Zach Eflin but I think there’s some strong value with both Jeff McNeil ($3,200 DK, $2,600 FD) and Michael Conforto ($3,500, $2,700 FD). They just seem too cheap to me. Eflin has allowed a .353 wOBA to lefties this year though that comes with a much more benign .301 xwOBA.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)