DFS Plays of the Day – August 4

Ryan Amore previews the DFS slate for Tuesday, August 4th.

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Tuesday’s slate features 10 games, with the Rockies continuing their homestand against the Giants. They’ll be sending out their ace German Marquez (30.1% CSW, 19.4% K-BB% in 2019) who has been very sharp in his first two road starts at Oakland and Texas. Marquez certainly has the skills to succeed, but we’ve seen Coors Field stymie even the best pitchers. Last year Marquez posted a 6.26 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home to go along with a .354 wOBA allowed. The Giants, meanwhile, have yet to announce a starter for tonight’s game, so at least on paper this matchup greatly favors the Rockies. They should be one of the most popular stacks of the evening and with good reason.

For pitching, this is a slate with plenty of intriguing options. One of the most electric, young pitchers in the game, Jesus Luzardo will be making his first start of the season after a couple of appearances in long relief. This is actually a very strong matchup on paper considering the Rangers had the third-worst K rate against LHP last year at 25.5%. There’s plenty of upside considering his salary ($7,600 DK, $6,100 FD). Just note he’ll be facing a pitch count (67 pitches in his last appearance) so he’ll need to be efficient.

 

Top SP: Lucas Giolito,  ($9,100 DK, $9, 400 FD) at MIL

 

There look to be quite a few viable options in the low-mid tier tonight including Luzardo, Christian JavierAndrew Heaney, Brandon Woodruff, and Max Fried among others so paying up at pitcher might not be optimal. But if you do choose to go up a bit more in price, consider Lucas Giolito (31.6% CSW, 24.2% K-BB%). As a road dog, you’d figure that most people would opt to avoid Giolito, making him an intriguing option in tournaments especially when, considering last year’s numbers, he has the highest K rate on the board tonight among qualifiers at 32.3%. Meanwhile, the Brewers have struggled offensively in the early going posting the fifth-highest team K rate at 26% to go along with a meager .289 team wOBA. Another possible advantage for Giolito is that quite a few of the Brewers hitters have yet to face him.

Honorable Mentions: Patrick Corbin, WAS ($10,400 DK, $10,800 FD) vs NYM.

 

Value SP: John Means, BAL ($6,500 DK, $5,800 FD) vs MIA

 

Injuries to the Astros rotation necessitated the promotion of Christian Javier. He didn’t disappoint tallying nine strikeouts (35% CSW) across 6 and 2/3 scoreless innings. Considering the cheap salary, prospect pedigree, and that he’s fresh off blanking the Dodgers in his debut Javier should be immensely popular in all formats. Vazquez projects well relative to his price, but there are some warning signs though that could make him an interesting fade in tournaments. While he’s shown excellent strikeout rates throughout the minors, his walk rates (13.4% in Double-A last year) have also been noticeably high. Declining fastball velocity during his first start also poses potential stamina concerns. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had the eighth-lowest K rate against RHP last year at 21.7%.

If you’re looking to be different at a very similar price point, don’t overlook John Means (24.4% CSW, 13% K-BB in 2019). As our own Sarah Griffin writes here Means was one of the more unheralded stories of the 2019 season. A 46th round pick from the Braves in 2011, Means not only emerged as the de facto Oriole ace, but finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. His first start was a mess, but the most prevalent thing to take away from it was an incredibly impressive bump in velocity as his fastball was hitting 95 as opposed to the 91-92 we saw last year. This time around he’ll be facing a makeshift Marlins squad at home as opposed to the Yankees.

Honorable Mention: Jesus Luzardo, OAK ($7,600 DK, $6,100 FD); Christian Javier, HOU ($6,500 DK, $7,200 FD) at ARI. 

 

SS Trevor Story, COL ($5,700 DK, $4,200 FD) vs SF

 

As mentioned earlier, it’s probably a good idea to get a piece of the Rockies lineup as they currently have the largest implied run total of the slate. Trevor Story costs a ton but fortunately, there are quite a few pitchers in the low-mid tier that seem viable allowing access to upper-tier bats. Per the DFS Tools over at FTN, Story projects as a top-five bat and is by far the best-projected Shortstop on tonight’s slate.

Honorable Mentions: Anthony Rendon, 3B ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD) at SEA; Nolan Arenado, 3B ($5,300 DK, $3,800 FD) vs SF; Alex Dickerson, OF ($4,800 DK, $3,100 FD) at COL; Anthony Rizzo1B ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD) vs. KC. 

 

1B Cody Bellinger, LAD ($4,900 DK, $4,000 FD) at SD.

 

Yes, Dinelson Lamet can miss a lot of bats. But he has also shown to be significantly more vulnerable against lefties. For his career, Lamet has allowed a wOBA of .337 against lefties stands as opposed to just .269 against righties. This could be a good time to buy low on Cody Bellinger and his career .390 wOBA against RHP.

Honorable Mentions: Marcell Ozuna, OF ($4,700 DK, $3,300 FD) vs TOR; Kris Bryant, OF ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD) vs KC; Ryan McMahon, 1B/2B ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD) vs. SF; David DahlOF ($5,100 DK, $3,800 FD) vs SF

 

Value Batter: OF Justin Upton, LAA ($3,700 DK, $2,700 FD) at SEA

 

Mariners starter Justin Dunn doesn’t typically have much of leash pitch-count wise, so the Angels should expect to see quite a bit of the bullpen tonight. They also have an implied run total north of five runs. Justin Upton provides some cheap power upside in the middle of an Angels lineup that should have Mike Trout back tonight.

Honorable Mentions: Howie Kendrick, 2B ($3,700 DK, $2,400 FD) vs NYM; Matt Kemp, OF ($3,600 DK, $3,000 FD) vs SF; Monte Harrison, OF ($3,400 DK) at BAL; Austin Riley, 3B ($2,200 FD) vs TOR; David Peralta, OF ($2,400 FD) vs HOU; Jo AdellOF ($3,200 DK) at SEA; Bo Bichette, SS ($2,800 FD) at ATL: J.D. Davis, OF ($3,800 DK, $2,800 FD) at WAS. 

 

Lineup Stack: Astros at ARI (LHP Madison Bumgarner)

 

The Rockies are the obvious choice as they have the highest implied team total on the slate. But the Astros could be an interesting stack in tournaments, particularly if you are looking to fade the bats at Coors Field. Several of the Astros mainstays including George Springer, Jose Altuveand Alex Bregman project really well according to the FTN DFS tools. Carlos Correa looks like an excellent value, particularly on DraftKings at $4,400. Given the fact that they are all off to slow starts, you’d guess not many would want to look their way especially against a brand name like Madison Bumgarner. This year his fastball velocity in the early going is sitting at just under 88—a very noticeable drop from last year’s average of 91. In addition, his swinging strike rate through his first two starts sits at an alarmingly low 8%. Bumgarner’s apparent decline could make the Astros an interesting tournament stack to consider.

Honorable Mentions: COL vs. SF (BD); LAA at SEA (Dunn); ATL vs TOR (Shoemaker). 

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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