Tuesday brings us a full slate of games featuring a ton of offense across the board, without further ado let’s find some plays for tonight.
The Top Tier
Zack Wheeler leads the slate with a 24% K-BB% and is my preferred pitcher at the top as he gets to face a Nationals lineup that was torn apart at the deadline. He was, however, a bit underwhelming his last time out against the Nationals on July 29 (seven IP, five Ks, 30% CSW). Still, I can’t resist going back to the well given that Victor Robles and Alcides Escobar have taken turns hitting leadoff for the Nationals.
Sean Manaea was remarkably efficient his last time out against the Padres, needing just 90 pitches to put together nine strikeouts across six innings backed by a 35.6% CSW. No Fernando Tatís Jr (shoulder) makes his assignment all the easier. Overall, Manaea’s 21.5% K-BB% is a career-best and he’s done a terrific job limiting batters to just a .295 xwOBA.
Walker Buehler seems like the third option behind Wheeler and Manaea given his matchup against the Astros, who have the lowest team K rate in baseball at 19.4%. Although, it is at home at least so he’ll get to face an A.L. pitcher trying to hold a bat.
The Twins lineup is depleted right now especially if Josh Donaldson misses again (hamstring), regardless, Tyler Mahle just seems a little miscast at $10,000 on DraftKings. On FanDuel, though, he looks like a strong value at just $7,900.
Value/Mid-Tier Pitchers
Luis Patiño should garner a lot of attention tonight, considering he’s coming off a stellar performance against the Yankees (six IP, eight Ks, 37.1% CSW). And this Mariners offense has been a friendly matchup too with a 26% K rate (second-highest).
Tonight is a potential bounce-back spot for Taijuan Walker as he’ll get the Marlins and their .295 team wOBA (2nd-worst). I don’t think we can expect much improvement, given that they just traded away one of their better hitters in Starling Marte. The Mets are massive road favorites tonight (-170).
Dylan Cease gets the benefit of facing the Royals today, who have the second-lowest walk rate in baseball at 7.3%. For the year, the Royals are tied with Cleveland for 24th in team wOBA at .302, and they also let go of one of their better power hitters in Jorge Soler at the trade deadline. The White Sox are also the biggest favorite on the board (-243).
It’s Coors so this could easily end badly, but I do think the state of the Cubs lineup puts Kyle Freeland in play as a potential cheap SP 2 if you’re multi-entering DraftKings tournaments.
Bats and Stacks
COL (6.3) vs. Zach Davies (RHP) 4.2% K-BB, .350 xwOBA, 1.51 WHIP, 5.63 xERA: Davies has put together back-to-back eight strikeout games. I don’t think you should pay much attention to that though, as the larger sample size points to a pitcher with a career 17.2% K rate. This year he’s been walking batters at a career-worst 12.1% clip too. You don’t need me to tell you that that is asking for trouble at Coors. The Rockies, somehow, managed to not move Trevor Story prior to the deadline and he is one of tonight’s top options at SS. Both Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers seem too cheap on DraftKings.
NYY (5.9) vs. Alex Wells (LHP) 4.2% K-BB, .387 xwOBA, 1.70 WHIP, 6.79 xERA: Wells has made just four appearances on the year, so the small sample size caveat applies here. But, the early returns have been tough for the inexperienced lefty. After disappointing against Jorge López last night, the Yankee offense figures to be chalk again tonight with the emphasis being on the righty power of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
CWS (5.6) vs. Kris Bubic (LHP) 7.5% K-BB, .357 xwOBA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.60 xERA: Bubic just faced the White Sox his last time out and escaped allowing just two earned runs across six innings. Just three strikeouts backed by a modest 24.7% CSW tells you that this could certainly turn into a blowup spot for the White Sox offense tonight as they get a second crack at the inexperienced lefty. José Abreu and Tim Anderson are excellent targets tonight for all formats, with Andrew Vaughn as a potential value play. The potential for a White Sox stack would get a huge boost if Eloy Jiménez (groin) is able to return tonight.
BOS (5.4) at Wily Peralta (RHP) 4.7% K-BB, .332 xwOBA, 1.12 WHIP, 4.74 xERA: As expected, regression took a big, fat bite out of Wily Peralta as he’s allowed 11 earned runs combined over his last two starts along with four home runs. The lefties should be your focus here against Peralta as he’s allowed a .350 xwOBA to them this season (.315 xwOBA vs RHB). Rafael Devers is a top play at 3B, with Jarren Duran and Alex Verdugo as strong values.
MIL (5.6) vs. Max Kranick (RHP) 12% K-BB, .332 xwOBA, 1.63 WHIP, 4.74 xERA: The rookie Kranick has made just four starts, but Vegas isn’t too hopeful, installing the Brewers and Adrian Houser as massive home favorites (-220). I like Rowdy Tellez the most here as a low-cost, upside bat for tournaments. Kranick’s numbers in Triple-A were underwhelming too (5.47 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 12.1% K-BB%) so this is a potential blow up spot for the Brewers offense, making them yet another tournament stack to consider.
CHC (5.3) at Kyle Freeland (LHP) 10.2% K-BB, .336 xwOBA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.87 xERA: The Cubs lineup, as you know, was gutted at the deadline. It’s Coors so they get the obligatory nod here but this is very much an offense I want to ignore, especially on a full slate. Regardless, I’m obliged to acknowledge the value of Rafael Ortega, Matt Duffy, and David Bote on DraftKings. Ortega has been productive of late, while also hitting leadoff, so he should be quite popular if he finds himself there again tonight.
TOR (5.1) vs. Zach Plesac (RHP) 11% K-BB, .311 xwOBA, 1.10 WHIP, 4.10 xERA: This seems like one of the few slates where the Blue Jays could get overlooked mostly because a matchup against Plesac doesn’t stand out at all. Anytime you can get the Jays offense in tournaments at a potentially low roster percentage it’s worth taking note of.
PHI (4.6) at Patrick Corbin (LHP) 9.4% K-BB, .364 xwOBA, 1.47 WHIP, 5.86 xERA: Corbin has struggled enough against righties (.378 xwOBA allowed) that you can certainly consider the likes of J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins if he returns to the lineup (groin). They are a potential tournament stack if you’re multi-entering.
ATL (4.5) at Jon Lester (LHP) 6.4% K-BB, .337 xwOBA, 1.59 WHIP, 4.90 xERA: This may have been one of the moves that you missed at the deadline, as Lester was shipped from Washington to St. Louis. Righty power here is definitely in play against Lester (.354 xwOBA vs RHB), leaving Ozzie Albies as an excellent 2B option for tournaments. Jorge Soler is probably too cheap on DraftKings ($3,100). Adam Duvall and Austin Riley are options here too if you’re mixing and matching in tournaments.
Value Bats
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