TGIF! We have another 13-game main slate this Friday on both FanDuel and DraftKings. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET in Baltimore while we have three late games on the West Coast. With 26 teams in action tonight we have a lot to choose from but I’ll make it easy and share my favorite plays and stacks with you.
It’s important to have a process when playing DFS so I’ll share a few things I do every time I build a lineup.
Selecting a Pitcher
- To get a lot of fantasy points a pitcher needs to rack up the Ks. I look at a pitcher’s K% and the team K% of their opponent.
- Take a look at the lineup for the opposing team. Are all the regulars starting? How many L vs. R are there?
- Where is the game? Coors Field, Fenway Park, and Great American Ballpark are places to try and avoid.
- Look at the implied run totals for teams. Selecting hitters from teams with high IRTs is a good start.
- Look at the opposing pitcher’s stats. What is their weakness? LHH or RHH?
- Where in the lineup are they hitting? Finding cheap pieces batting near the top of the order is idea.
- Provides the best chance to win GPP tournaments
- 5-3 for DraftKings and 4-4 or 4-3-1 for FanDuel
- Diversify your stacks. Don’t always go for 1-4 in the batting order. Mix it up with the bottom of the lineup.
Ok, now that you know where to start, ready to win some money? Let’s go!
Timmy’s Top 3 SP
Frankie Montas pitching at home in Oakland is real tempting tonight. In 4 starts this season he has 3 quality starts, 2 wins, and 19 strikeouts over 19.2 innings. The issue with Montas is that Cleveland is good right now ( I think) and using him as your pitcher on FanDuel at the highest price on the slate, is a little risky. So who do I like? Let’s get into it!
Nestor Cortes Jr., SP, NYY
The Royals are throwing LHP Kris Bubic tonight and the Yankees smell the blood already. Cortes has a 44.6 K% (4th best) and a 33.1 CSW%. The Royals have a 62 wRC+ and a .083 ISO vs LHP, both bottom five in the majors. Mondesi was diagnosed with a torn ACL yesterday and will be out for the season. Bobby Witt Jr.and the Royals’ best hitter, Salvador Perez, both have K rates over 30% vs LHP. This is a great matchup for Cortes and the Yankees should score enough runs to get him the W.
Adam Wainwright, SP, STL
Wainwright has pitched two good games and two bad games. The bad games were at Cincinnati and at Milwaukee, both hitters’ parks. I like really like Wainwright on FanDuel at his price vs. a terrible Arizona team. The snakes have a 25% K rate, a .267 wOBA, and a 71 wRC+, all bottom four in the majors. Adam has a 28.3 CSW% and limits hard contact to 23.1%. Arizona has been so bad that their best hitter, Ketel Marte, is priced all the way down to $2400 on FanDuel.
Hunter Greene, SP, CIN
Greene is a solid SP2 option on DraftKings tonight. He leads the majors with an average fastball of 98.8 MPH. Anyone who throws that hard has a chance to rack up strikeouts and its shows with his 26.2 K%. This game is in Coors and the Rockies hit well there and don’t strike out much as a team but for this price and potential 7+ strikeouts, I’ll take a shot on Greene.
The Cards lead the majors in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ vs LHP. Mad Bum has given up 25 ER in his last 28 innings vs. St. Louis. He’s just not a good pitcher anymore. Paul Goldschmidt is batting .338 in 71 ABs in his career vs. Mad Bum and Nolan Arenado currently leads the majors with 3 HR vs LHP. Harrison Bader and Sosa (if he’s in the lineup) are two cheap options I love in this stack.
The Yankees are right behind St. Louis in the power department vs LHP. Their .205 ISO and 127 wRC+ rank in the top five in the majors. Aaron Judge is .291 ISO and a 163 wRC+ career hitter vs LHP. Rizzo is smashing the ball right now and Stanton and Donaldson are always a threat to go yard. Bubic has a -10 K-BB% and an xFIP of .699 so far this season. Now those will likely improve slightly but not tonight. The Yankees should have no problem winning this game tonight.
LA Dodgers vs. Tyler Alexander
Detroit is in LA for some inter-league play. Alexander has given up 10 runs (8 earned) and 3 walks in 10 innings of work so far. The Dodgers lineup is scary and Cody Bellinger, who bats 7th in the order, has a 66% hard contact rate vs. LHP. Justin Turner and Gavin Lux are cheap pieces you can pair with Tre Turner, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, or Freddie Freeman.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is back, did you know that? This Braves lineup is top-notch now with Dansby Swanson batting 9th. Garrett Richards is a gas can and 1-9 from Atlanta is in play tonight. Swanson, Acuña, and Olson are priorities with either Heredia or Demeritte for value.
Here are some of the best value bats for tonight. If you see a guy on this list, it’s safe to play other players from their team. We will see some value pop up once lineups are announced so use this as a reference and pay attention to the news, as there are always one or two guys batting at the top of a lineup that are not there on the regular.
Good luck tonight and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend!
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)