DFS Daily Breakdown – September 8

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! Today we get a 9-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:05. As of this writing, there’s a chance of rain in the Orioles/Royals and Blue Jays/Yankees games, but it doesn’t look to roll in until after the games are over. Just keep an eye on the situation as we get closer to lock. Let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

This is going to be a tough slate. As of this writing, we have five teams with implied totals below 4.2 runs. That’s not the worst, especially if we make the assumption that the Angels will be below that number against Yu Darvish. Luckily for us, there are eight teams with totals above 4.8 runs. The Braves lead the way with a 5.8 total, making them our main stack. Let’s take a look at some options for our pitchers, and then we’ll check out our stacks.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

While I love when we have plenty of options in consideration for our pitchers, sometimes it is tough to make the ultimate decision on who to start. Hopefully, the numbers will help narrow down our choices so that we don’t have to make a choice as tough as Sophie’s.

Pitching Matchups

Right off the bat, I’m going to fade Touki Toussaint in cash games. The Nationals have been hitting righties pretty well of late, and his strikeout rate isn’t so high that I get FOMO that he’ll toss a 12 K gem, breaking the slate.

I’m very conflicted about Freddy Peralta ($10,200 DK, $9,400 FD). He had been so good all year, but in his first start off the IL, he lasted just 2.0 innings while allowing four earned runs. The strikeout upside is there, but I’m likely only using Perala in GPP lineups today.

I know Yu Darvish ($9,300 DK, $9,000 FD) has been pretty rough of late. He’s allowed four or more runs in seven of his last nine starts. What will happen when Darvish’s struggles meet the Angels’ struggles? I’m hoping a lot of strikeouts. I’m most likely going to play Darvish in cash games even though the risk is certainly there that he gets blown up…….again.

The reason I’m choosing to lock in Darvish and his risk is that our other options carry risk as well. The Dodgers have been in really bad form over the last two weeks, but they’re still the Dodgers. The top five in that lineup terrify me. But there’s a chance that I’m using Adam Wainwright ($8,100 DK, $10,000 FD) as my SP2. Wainwright has been good all year and comes at a little bit of a discount for how good he’s pitched.

Behind curtain number two is Mitch White ($8,200 DK, $6,100 FD). My concern with White was “just how stretched out is he”? But two starts ago, he threw 7.1 scoreless innings against the Pirates. Now, the Cardinals are certainly not the Pirates, but on a tough pitching slate, White is in consideration for cash games.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

As I mentioned earlier, Atlanta and their 5.8 implied run total are going to be the focus of my main stack. Facing a lefty, Ozzie Albies ($5,100 DK, $4,200 FD) is a lock. On the year, he’s batting .324 with nine homers against southpaws. From there, we can lock in Jorge Soler ($3,900 DK, $3,400 FD), Austin Riley ($5,400 DK, $3,700 FD), and Dansby Swanson ($5,000 DK, $3,000 FD)…..if we can afford them. Luckily for us, Atlanta rolls out a righty-heavy lineup when facing a left-handed pitcher. Let’s take a look at our other hitting options today:

Hitting Matchups

As the great poet George Takei says, “Oh my.” Never have I even seen a team wRC+ of -2. So, the Athletics are out for cash game purposes. As is the Yankees. Both of those teams could blow up, but I’m not comfortable in rolling them out in my cash game lineups.

With us rolling out Atlanta in our primary stack, we’re just looking for secondary pieces. With that in mind, I like the Blue Jays, Orioles, and to some extent, the Royals. I’m always in for the high-end Blue Jays bats, but if we need value, I love Lourdes Gurriel ($3,300 DK, $3,700 FD) and Corey Dickerson ($2,800 DK, $2,600 FD).

From the Orioles, I love Ryan Mountcastle ($4,300 DK, $3,500 FD). The dude has been a monster of late, and his price hasn’t caught up. If you need some more value, Austin Hays ($3,100 DK, $2,800 FD) looks like a really nice option.

I don’t think I’m going to get to the high-priced Royals – Salvadore Perez and Whit Merrifield. But a cheaper option that fills a non-OF position is Nicky Lopez ($3,700 DK, $2,800 FD). Against righties, Lopez bats second and batting .327 over the last month. You can’t go wrong with a cheap, hot bat against Matt Harvey.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate. Keep in mind, this is being written well before lock. Make sure you check lineups once they’re posted to find the additional value that opens up.

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:

Sample Cash Game Lineup

Good luck today!

 

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Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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