DFS Daily Breakdown – September 15

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! Today we get a 10-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a start time of 7:05. As of this writing, there’s a chance of rain for the Atlanta/Rockies game, so keep an eye on that situation leading up to lock. Let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

We currently have just five teams with implied totals north of 5.0 runs. Leading the pack at 5.4 runs is the Astros. They’ll likely be the main feature of my cash game lineups. On the flip side, we have six teams with an implied total of 4.0 runs or below. We also have two additional teams at 4.2 runs. Let’s take a look at some options for our pitchers, and then we’ll check out our stacks.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

While I love when we have plenty of options in consideration for our pitchers, sometimes it is tough to make the ultimate decision on who to start. Hopefully, the numbers will help narrow down our choices so that we don’t have to make a choice as tough as Sophie’s.

Pitching Matchups

This is a pretty tough slate for pitching. While no one stands out as a full-fade, the strikeout rate tells me to fade José Urquidy ($10,000 DK, $8,700 FD) today in cash. I still like the matchup against the Rangers; I just don’t think it has the strikeout upside that some of these others carry.

The next two that I’m crossing off my list were pretty fringy to start with, and that’s Nestor Cortes and Dallas Keuchel. The Orioles have been humming against left-handed pitching, and, well, if Urquidy carries a low strikeout upside, Keuchel carries no upside.

Looking at the rest of our options, there are three that stand out – Tylor Megill ($9,200 DK, $7,800 FD), Julio Urías ($10,500 DK, $10,300 FD), and Ranger Suárez ($7,200 DK, $8,800 FD). Don’t look at me like that! I told you pitching was tough today.

I love that Ranger – May I call you Ranger? – doesn’t break the bank. He looks like a perfect SP2 option to me. The choice between Megill and Urías is a tough one that, honestly, might come down to roster construction for me. If there’s a player I need some salary to get up to, then I’ll take Megill.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

Since we get another day of min-priced José Siri ($2,000 DK, $ FD), I’ll most likely be stacking the Astros as my main stack. Having Siri in my lineup allows me the freedom to get to the expensive bats I want like Yordan Álvarez ($5,000 DK, $ FD) and Alex Bregman ($4,400 DK, $ FD). Let’s take a look at our other hitting options today:

Hitting Matchups

I can eliminate the Phillies and Yankees from stacking consideration. That being said, I don’t mind a one-off Bryce Harper or Judge/Stanton. Those players carry a high enough upside that the team doesn’t have to go bananas in order for them to have a ceiling game.

I like Atlanta a decent amount today, but frankly, they’re just not going to be my priority today. The bats are priced up higher than the Astros, which should keep them low-owned. If anything, Atlanta makes for a nice pivot off of the Astros in GPPs. I really like Freddie Freeman ($5,800 DK, $3,900 FD) and Adam Duvall ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD), but because of their pricing, I don’t think they’ll make my cash game lineup. One player I will not have exposure to is Dansby Swanson ($4,600 DK, $2,900 FD), who is in the middle of a 1/27 stretch against righties over the last two weeks.

A team that offers a decent upside with some value is the White Sox. Luis Robert ($4,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Yoán Moncada ($3,700 DK, $3,400 FD), and Leury García ($3,100 DK, $2,700 FD) have been hot over the last two weeks, and I’m looking to ride that wave.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate. Keep in mind, this is being written well before lock. Make sure you check lineups once they’re posted to find the additional value that opens up.

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s a sample cash game lineup:

Sample Cash Game Lineup

This line was built pretty easily. If you wanted to diversify your portfolio a little, I’d start by paying down at catcher.

Good luck today!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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