DFS Daily Breakdown – April 20

Swan breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! Another smaller slate, but we dealt with this last week. So, keep things simple and similarly attack your builds by diversifying. Avoid five-person stacks and try to build more of a four-three lineup so you can get more exposure to whichever team puts up the largest run total. Good luck!

 

Implied Run Totals (IRT)

 

  • BAL @ OAK – On a slate this small, both offenses are in play but not terrific options for stacking. Luckily, they’re both inexpensive stacks that would allow you to build with aces.
  • ARI @ WSH – There is no need to stack ARI as they aren’t a good offense. Use them as one-offs to smash in your builds but not stacks. Although a WSH stack isn’t the worst idea because the top of the batting order is decent.

 

  • TOR @ BOS – The game has suspect pitching and loads of bombers. Grab all the bats from this matchup.
  • SFG @ NYM – It looks like a pitcher’s duel, meaning you should avoid any bats here.

 

  • TBR @ CHC – Both teams come with decent IRT, and if we’re choosing to stack either, I am on board. In a larger field GPP, lean towards the Cubs as they’ll likely draw less roster%, and Drew Rasmussen hasn’t pitched well yet.
  • MIN @ KCR – The Royals have cheap one-offs and could become a stack that allows you to pay up for top-end SPs. Not a bad option, but MIN still has enough sluggers and a much better SP that can give up HRs in bunches.

 

  • TEX @ SEALogan Gilbert is on the mound, so stacking Rangers won’t be smart but gaining some cheaper leverage with one-offs like Nathaniel Lowe at 1B is interesting. SEA is in a similar spot—the stack is risky, but the prices are low.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

Pitching will be very chalky today. Cash lineups will look very similar, so don’t get too cute. Stay in the Green, and only get crazy in the Red for GPPS.

 

GREEN Tier 

The Green Tier is SP1 territory, and today it will come with an inflated roster%. Carlos Rodón will be in nearly every cash lineup created today. There is nothing wrong with using Rodón in your GPP lineups because he’s the top option; you’ll just need to get different with your stack or SP2 (for DraftKings players).

Facing off against Rodón, Chris Bassitt takes on a formidable Giants lineup. However, over the past two seasons, Bassitt has been remarkably consistent. His 3.03 SIERA and 25.3% K-rate suggest he’s in play for cash lineups and GPPs. He’s easily the second-best arm on the slate, and that’ll come with a lot of roster%. Expect him in winning lineups today.

Logan Gilbert is blossoming into a must-start DFS pitcher. In both outings this season, he’s thrown 85 pitches and done a spectacular job of keeping the base paths clean. Since last year, Texas upgraded its offense significantly, but things haven’t come together against RHP. With a K-rate over 25% against LHB and RHBs, he’s all set for another solid afternoon.

 

YELLOW Tier

Neither has a proven track record as a bonafide ace between the two (Merrill Kelly and Drew Rasmussen). Kelly found some additional velocity this season, and Rasmussen is still learning how to perform as an SP. Neither should appear in any cash lineups.

However, this is an excellent spot to target one for your GPP builds. Kelly is far more intriguing as your SP2 in DraftKings lineups because he’s found more K% with the velocity increase. And Rasmussen is a better wildcard SP option for FanDuel since the Rays are projected to win a squeaker against the Cubs.

 

RED Tier

Usually, the Red Tier is a place to avoid; however, this is your place to gain leverage on the field for today. Jordan Lyles, Dane Dunning, and Chris Paddack have plenty of warts but come with massive savings. Additionally, you’ll need to get different when a slate is this small and has limited SP1 options.

The trio of arms is stretched out enough to go over five innings. The biggest question is, can they prevent their demons from lasting that long? Each of them has a decent matchup, relative to the slate. Dunning struck out seven his last time out, and Lyles squares off an Oakland team that’s been surprisingly decent.

But, if all three are similar, give me the cheapest option in Paddack. His first time on the hill, he pitched against the Dodgers and fared pretty well, all things considered (4 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 K). Furthermore, he tossed 73 pitches and didn’t walk a batter. We don’t need 20-plus points; just get us double-digits.

 

Value Stacks

 

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox 

  • We’ve got a two-stack special here. With the slate only having 14 teams available for stacking, you’re going to be hard-pressed to find offenses with firepower up and down the lineup like these. Additionally, they get pitchers that are prone to blowups. Nick Pivetta has allowed three HR and eight earned runs in his first 7.2 innings, and José Berríos hasn’t got a handle on his pitches. Additionally, we could see a lower roster% than usual given the higher salaries. Red Sox core stack targets: Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, and Alex Verdugo. Blue Jays core stack targets: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer.

 

Minnesota Twins (vs. Daniel Lynch)

  • Daniel Lynch is the weakest SP of the slate and allows too many HRs. Additionally, Lynch has looked decent against LHP, but anyone from the right side is crushing him (.928 OPS, .220 ISO). While the Twins lineup looks much worse without Buxton, you’ll be able to fill some more challenging lineup holes (SS, 2B, and C). Twins Core stack targets: Gary Sánchez, Jorge Polanco, and Carlos Correa.

 

Chicago Cubs (vs. Drew Rasmussen)

  • The Cubs are a GPP stack, and their 4.4 IRT is sneakily above the cut for most teams today. Partly because Drew Rasmussen hasn’t looked excellent this year, and the group showcases a 118 wRC+ vs. RHP. Again, this is a leverage play for those lineups with chalkier SP builds. Core stack targets: Seiya Suzuki, Willson Contreras, and Rafael Ortega.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are players under $3500 on DK and under $3300 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Use these players to smash into your lineup when you need to save some salary.

 

Value Plays

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Dave Swan

Dave Swan is an avid Chicago Cubs fan that enjoys all aspects of fantasy baseball-especially DFS. He would trade his right arm for a GIF library of Greg Maddux pitches. Swan's baseball thoughts are available at @davithius.

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