Following up on our saves and holds preview articles, today we finish our look at relievers by combining the two to get our Saves + Holds (SV+HD) list. While the opportunity for these counting stats is certainly taken into consideration, it’s typically hard to gauge with bullpen usage being so fluid throughout the season for most teams. The bulk of the rankings are derived from swing-and-miss ability, expected outcome stats, and a little bit of HOTEL mixed in. Also, keep in mind that holds are much more volatile and harder to predict. We’ve only seen 11 seasons from a pitcher with more than 30 holds since 2016, while 49 closers have gone over 30 saves in that same time frame.
RANK | PITCHER | TEAM |
---|---|---|
1 (Tier 1) | Josh Hader | Milwaukee Brewers |
2 | Kirby Yates | San Diego Padres |
3 (Tier 2) | Nick Anderson | Tampa Bay Rays |
4 | Ryan Pressly | Houston Astros |
5 | Aroldis Chapman | New York Yankees |
6 | Drew Pomeranz | San Diego Padres |
7 | Roberto Osuna | Houston Astros |
8 (Tier 3) | Liam Hendriks | Oakland Athletics |
9 | Taylor Rogers | Minnesota Twins |
10 | Ken Giles | Toronto Blue Jays |
11 | Will Smith | Atlanta Braves |
12 | Seth Lugo | New York Mets |
13 | Giovanny Gallegos | St. Louis Cardinals |
14 | Emilio Pagan | San Diego Padres |
15 (Tier 4) | Tommy Kahnle | New York Yankees |
16 | Tyler Duffey | Minnesota Twins |
17 | Kenley Jansen | Los Angeles Dodgers |
18 | Brad Hand | Cleveland Indians |
19 | Edwin Diaz | New York Mets |
20 | Matt Barnes | Boston Red Sox |
21 | Hector Neris | Philadelphia Phillies |
22 | Brandon Workman | Boston Red Sox |
23 | Will Harris | Washington Nationals |
24 (Tier 5) | Diego Castillo | Tampa Bay Rays |
25 | Pedro Baez | Los Angeles Dodgers |
26 | Adam Ottavino | New York Yankees |
27 | Dellin Betances | New York Mets |
28 | Ty Buttrey | Los Angeles Angels |
29 | Emmanuel Clase | Cleveland Indians |
30 | Craig Kimbrel | Chicago Cubs |
31 | Colin Poche | Tampa Bay Rays |
32 | Jose Leclerc | Texas Rangers |
33 | Aaron Bummer | Chicago White Sox |
34 | Raisel Iglesias | Cincinnati Reds |
35 | Hansel Robles | Los Angeles Angels |
36 | Scott Barlow | Kansas City Royals |
37 | Seranthony Dominguez | Philadelphia Phillies |
38 | Kevin Ginkel | Arizona Diamondbacks |
39 | Andres Munoz | San Diego Padres |
40 | Sergio Romo | Minnesota Twins |
41 | Andrew Miller | St. Louis Cardinals |
42 | Michael Lorenzen | Cincinnati Reds |
43 (Tier 6) | Amir Garrett | Cincinnati Reds |
44 | Blake Treinen | Los Angeles Dodgers |
45 | Sean Doolittle | Washington Nationals |
46 | Mark Melancon | Atlanta Braves |
47 | Zack Britton | New York Yankees |
48 | Ian Kennedy | Kansas City Royals |
49 | Alex Colome | Chicago White Sox |
50 | Archie Bradley | Arizona Diamondbacks |
51 | Trevor May | Minnesota Twins |
52 | Robert Stephenson | Cincinnati Reds |
53 | Luke Jackson | Atlanta Braves |
54 | James Karinchak | Cleveland Indians |
55 | Joe Jimenez | Detroit Tigers |
56 | Keone Kela | Pittsburgh Pirates |
57 | Kenyan Middleton | Los Angeles Angels |
58 | Yusmeiro Petit | Oakland Athletics |
59 | Joakim Soria | Oakland Athletics |
60 | Chaz Roe | Tampa Bay Rays |
61 | Scott Oberg | Colorado Rockies |
62 | Rafael Montero | Texas Rangers |
63 | Mychal Givens | Baltimore Orioles |
64 | Andrew Chafin | Arizona Diamondbacks |
65 | Chris Martin | Texas Rangers |
66 | Daniel Hudson | Washington Nationals |
67 | Jose Alvarado | Tampa Bay Rays |
68 | Chad Green | New York Yankees |
69 | John Brebbia | St. Louis Cardinals |
70 | Justin Wilson | New York Mets |
71 | Tanner Rainey | Washington Nationals |
72 | Darwinzon Hernandez | Boston Red Sox |
73 (Tier 7) | Yoshihisa Hirano | Seattle Mariners |
74 | Wade Davis | Colorado Rockies |
75 | Tony Watson | San Francisco Giants |
76 | Brandon Kintzler | Miami Marlins |
77 | Wander Suero | Washington Nationals |
78 | Jairo Diaz | Colorado Rockies |
79 | Carlos Estevez | Colorado Rockies |
80 | Jake Diekman | Oakland Athletics |
81 | Joe Kelly | Los Angeles Dodgers |
82 | Shane Greene | Atlanta Braves |
83 | Oliver Perez | Cleveland Indians |
84 | Josh Taylor | Boston Red Sox |
85 | Matt Strahm | San Diego Padres |
86 | Craig Stammen | San Diego Padres |
87 | Rowan Wick | Chicago Cubs |
88 | Trevor Gott | San Francisco Giants |
89 | John Gant | St. Louis Cardinals |
90 | Noe Ramirez | Los Angeles Angels |
91 | Nick Wittgren | Cleveland Indians |
92 | Jimmy Cordero | Chicago White Sox |
93 | Adam Morgan | Philadelphia Phillies |
94 | Brett Martin | Texas Rangers |
95 | Oliver Drake | Tampa Bay Rays |
96 | Sam Tuivailala | Seattle Mariners |
97 | Anthony Bass | Toronto Blue Jays |
98 | Buck Farmer | Detroit Tigers |
99 | Brad Wieck | Chicago Cubs |
100 | Yimi Garcia | Miami Marlins |
NOTES
- After discussing all the closers and plenty of other holds options yesterday, I’ll focus today’s notes on pitchers currently in the hunt for rotation spots as there are a lot of them…
- It looks like Josh James is the frontrunner for the 5th starter spot in Houston, however, if he loses out there he’d immediately jump into tier 6. Two other names working as starters right now that need to be watched closely are Bryan Abreu and Christian Javier. Abreau impressed in his spring debut, striking out 4 batters of the 6 batters he faced and would likely be in that 6th tier mix. Javier may start the year in the minors but if he gets called up would probably make it on to tier 7. We shouldn’t forget about Brad Peacock also, who when healthy has been a weapon for the Astros out of the pen.
- As of now, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta are projected to miss out on rotation spots in Milwaukee, and if they do they will likely make the next iteration of this list. Burnes impressed in his 31.1 innings as a reliever last year with a 3.01 xFIP, 3.17 SIERA, and gaudy 19.1% SwStr rate while dealing with a .420 BABIP. Peralta posted a 30.1% K rate last year with basically one pitch and is now working on a slider making him someone to monitor closely this spring.
- The Cardinals have about a dozen pitchers vying for 2 rotation spots right now despite it being no secret that Carlos Martinez and Kwang-Hyun Kim are the heavy favorites to claim those. While both are working as starters for now, Alex Reyes and Ryan Helsley each have a ton of upside if they can claim bullpen spots.
- Sean Newcomb is slated to start the year in the Braves rotation but I’d expect him to have a short leash once Cole Hamels returns. While he’s struggled as a starter in his career, Newcomb was mostly effective as a reliever for the Braves last season and could be a tier 6/7 holds leagues option. Touki Toussaint is another guy I’d love to see in this bullpen at some point early on as his stuff should play well in shorter stints (assuming he can cut the walk rate).
- The Dodgers are working up Ross Stripling to start games, but there’s no opening for him right now in that rotation at the moment. Assuming no starters get hurt between now and opening day, expect Stripling to open the year in the bullpen and towards the bottom of tier 6.
- Vince Velasquez has the inside track to the Phillies 5th starter spot, but if Nick Pivetta is somehow able to steal the job from him, I’d be intrigued by Velazquez as a reliever.
- Shaun Anderson could either win a rotation spot or be the Giants closer entering the season, either way, I’m not too interested in chasing. In a depleted Giants bullpen though, his role should be big enough to warrant tier 7 consideration.
Kela at #56 seems wild for a talented guy who is the confirmed closer for at least half the season and will presumably still pitch high-leverage innings if he’s traded.
Numerous maturity issues and injuries are a legit concern. Over the past 4 seasons, he has had only one year with 40 IP or higher and in his 8-year professional career, minors included, he only has pitched 50+ innings twice. Even when he’s on the field, he’s numbers don’t exactly wow (4.28 xFIP, 10.7 SwStr%, and 18.5% K-BB rate in 2019). Theres upside but a TON of risk.
I am in a keeper league with S+H as a category instead of saves. Of the two which one would you say has the better keeper value. Yates for an 8th rounder or Will Smith for a 14th rounder.
Chris Martin is a Brave!
Rick,
Where is Zac Britton on this list. He had a sub-2 ERA last year with 32 S+H and is on a team where he should continue getting a lot of opportunities being the set up man and back up to Chapman.
Any way we can get this thing updated?