The Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – The List 3/29 UPDATE

What is happening!

I put out my initial Top 200 Starting Pitcher rankings back in the middle of February and another update just under two weeks ago and, to the surprise of few, we’re well due for another update.

The foundations of these rankings are the same as they were back then – Volume, early schedule, realizing you’re not drafting a best ball team, etc. – and please read that section of the Top 200 rankings again to grasp how to take advantage of this updated Top 100 to its fullest.

I’ve also published my Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide For 2021 that outlines a lot of my philosophy when creating this List. I highly recommend reading that for your drafts.

In addition, I updated my SP Schedules article tables, which showcase the first four matchups for every starter in the majors. It’s incredibly useful and helped craft my rankings here.

This is the final update before the start of the season as we begin the weekly tradition of The List updates on Mondays, from now through the end of the season.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

And always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• I have removed all pitchers who will start the season on IL, meaning there is a sea of Green. Please read the notes as they’ll explain so much.
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• Hey, it’s the notes! Few changes inside the Top 40, with the major moves coming from the removals of Zac Gallen, Carlos Carrasco, and Sonny Gray. Removing them + Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, Luis Severino gave a massive bump to many.
• The biggest change was Stephen Strasburg falling into the fifth tier as I wasn’t encouraged by how he looked in his final tuneup today. He seemed off and I’d rather go with the other Top 25 guys that are looking ready to start the season (yes, including Zach Plesac’s homerun brigade).

 

• In Tier 6, I elected to keep Sixto Sanchez in the same spot despite the news that he’ll be skipped at least once to start the year. We didn’t expect a 180+ inning workload in the first place and it changes nothing. Nothing.
• I did give a sizeable boost to Julio Urias as the Dodgers are looking to give him a stronger workload as their #4 starter. That mixed in with the discussion with Eno and DVR on our Rates & Barrels appearance have swayed me to mid-30s.

 

• Staying in Tier 6, I’m a little more cautious with Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon, electing to push Pablo Lopez and Aaron Civale ahead of them. Barely, but Kluber isn’t quite as explosive as I wanted him to be by now, while the Yanks are already manipulating Taillon’s time. Very small, but I gave PabLo and Civale the push.
• I’ve also added Tyler Mahle to this tier as his early schedule is lovely, giving him the chance to continue stretching out while possibly avoiding early laborious innings. In other words, the chance he can go five innings without needing 80 pitches is much needed for a guy that hasn’t gone deep a whole lot in seasons prior.

 

• John Means took a small dip in Tier 7 as he’s not quite at the place I want him to be entering the season. Paired with a rough couple of matchups to launch his 2021 campaign, I’m a little more selective in adding Means.
• Meanwhile, I feel a touch safer drafting Jose Urquidy who may throw fewer innings, but is a bit more stable given his deep repertoire. Just don’t blow up against Oakland, okay Urquidy?

 

• Tier 8 explodes with green as we’re passed the oft-mentioned “injured value” tier. Nothing really changed here save for me recognizing that Ryan Yarbrough – a.k.a. The Fratty Pirate – has a solid schedule to start the season and the Rays will need him to engulf innings.
• I’ve also pushed Drew Smyly ahead of Mike Minor as his velocity is still up + he has a better opening schedule. Not a major deal, just a…small…one.

 

Read this next section. PLEASE.

 

• Okay, I really need to explain the final four tiers, to the point that I added that extravagant header. The final four tiers are sectioned as follows:
  • Tier 9 = Super fun tier of guys that could leap up The List during the year based on their ability, but kinda sketch now.
  • Tier 10 = Kinda fun, kinda boring arms that have solid early schedules and I’m looking to draft to help with a few quick starts
  • Tier 11 = More fun arms I like in the long run, but have horrible early schedules. Think of this as “I may love them on May 1st but watch from afar for now”
  • Tier 12 = I’m desperate for a starter the first week and these guys are facing weak opponents

• So in short, I’m drafting 4-5 guys inside the Top 45 pitchers, then targeting fliers later, while ignoring Tiers 11-12 for the most part. Tier 11 = if you want to stash and I’m not blind to their upside.

 

• H’ok, so Tier 9. David Price is going to be bouncing between starts and the pen and it bothers me immensely. If he gets a starting job, he’s Top 50 or higher, but that’s just not in the cards at the moment.
• Matthew Boyd is jumping up as I’ve liked what I’ve seen thus far. Changeup is still there, slider looks back, and 92+ mph heaters. I think I’d take the chance and start him against Cleveland now and hold out for the Pirates after.

 

• Yep, Freddy Peralta and Logan Webb are making massive entrances to The List. I didn’t believe it before, but Peralta’s slider is legit and now that he has a rotation spot, I’m paying attention. It may be a shaky first start, but I think he figures it out by the second or third. Webb has also impressed in the spring with a ridiculous changeup and gets a tasty schedule early. I want both of these guys everywhere.
• I’m also interested in Tarik Skubal since he was given the lovely gift of CLEx2 and PIT across his first four starts. Not to say he’ll nail it, but the upside is certainly worth it given the weak lineups (plus the whiff-heavy A’s!).

 

• If you haven’t seen it yet, I was stunned when I watched more of Adbert Alzolay today during The List livestream. While he may need some time to nail down the command, he’s too interesting to neglect now that he has a rotation spot. His mechanics seem a little cleaner as well.
• I’ve also given a large jump to Trevor Rogers, who is lucky to miss the Rays and get the Giants instead. I’m not quite as in vs. the other three newbies, but he’s worth the shot as a late-round flier.

 

• Tier 10 has some very helpful arms. Michael Pineda and J.A. Happ should not be overlooked as the Twins have a glorious DET, @MIL, @DET, SEA schedule to pop the 2021 champagne. Even Matt Shoemaker gets the Tigers, too, but he has to deal with the Red Sox and that gets him pushed to the final tier.
• Carlos Rodon has had an impressive spring thus far and it may continue with a favorable situation in Chicago. Taijuan Walker could do well for the Mets, and Brad Keller’s first start against the Rangers may be fruitful.

 

• Tier 11 is filled with your popular arms but man do their schedules give me hesitation. Consider them as pickups at the end of April. For example, Andrew Heaney’s is atrocious and gives me nightmares, with CWS, @TOR, MIN, @HOU. I don’t think I want to start him for any of it.
• It continues with the rest of the tier, including hot topic Daulton Jefferies who is certainly appealing, but gets the Dodgers and Astros to kick off his rotation spot. That isn’t what you want.
• In short, keep all of these names in mind after you get your early Happ or Pineda value as they could be showcasing skills that provide dividends once their gauntlet comes to an end.

 

• Finally, there’s Tier 12 – the last place to look if you’re dying for something in the first week. Jake Arrieta has two starts against the Pirates but sadly, I just don’t trust that he does enough to take full advantage. The same goes for Martín Pérez who has a fortunate double date with the Orioles. I’m having second thoughts after he floundered the same opportunity last season.
• And finally, don’t ignore Mike Foltynewicz and Chris Archer. While they may not be their former peaks, they could still be helpful given the right matchups. Hey, it could happen.

 

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	TEX	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Shane Bieber	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Gerrit Cole	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Yu Darvish T2	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Lucas Giolito	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
6	Aaron Nola	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Walker Buehler	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
8	Max Scherzer	TOR	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
9	Trevor Bauer	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-
10	Clayton Kershaw	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
11	Kenta Maeda T3	SD	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
12	Luis Castillo	SEA	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
13	Jack Flaherty	DET	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
14	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
15	Blake Snell T4	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	+1
16	Lance Lynn		Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
17	Tyler Glasnow	LAD	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+1
18	Zack Wheeler	PHI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
19	Hyun Jin Ryu		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+4
20	Max Fried	NYY	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
21	Kyle Hendricks		Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+4
22	Zach Plesac	STL	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
23	Corbin Burnes	ARI	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+4
24	Stephen Strasburg T5		Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-4
25	Charlie Morton	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+4
26	Patrick Corbin	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
27	Chris Paddack	MIA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+5
28	Zack Greinke		Ace Potential Quality Starts	+3
29	José Berríos	TOR	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
30	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+4
31	Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+4
32	Sixto Sánchez T6		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+4
33	Jesús Luzardo	PHI	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	+4
34	Pablo López	MIN	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+6
35	Julio Urías		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+9
36	Aaron Civale		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+5
37	Corey Kluber		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
38	Jameson Taillon	CHC	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
39	Ian Anderson	ATL	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+3
40	Frankie Montas	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+3
41	Joe Musgrove	SD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
42	Dylan Bundy		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+4
43	Tyler Mahle	SF	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+6
44	José Urquidy T7		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	+7
45	John Means		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+2
46	Kevin Gausman	TOR	Ace Potential Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+4
47	Marcus Stroman		Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+6
48	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+4
49	James Paxton		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+5
50	Jordan Montgomery	TEX	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+5
51	Triston McKenzie	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+5
52	Domingo Germán		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+5
53	Dallas Keuchel T8		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+10
54	Marco Gonzales	SD	Quality Starts Toby	+10
55	Zach Davies		Quality Starts Toby	+11
56			Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+14
57	Mike Minor		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+8
58	Carlos Martínez		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+10
59	Ryan Yarbrough	NYY	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+28
60	Logan Webb T9	SF	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+UR
61	Freddy Peralta	NYM	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
62	David Price		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-4
63	Zach Eflin	BAL	Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option	+9
64	Matthew Boyd	CHC	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+18
65	Mitch Keller	PIT	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+6
66	Tarik Skubal	DET	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
67	Brady Singer	CIN	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+7
68	Germán Márquez	SD	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-9
69	Tony Gonsolin	SD	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+10
70	Adbert Alzolay	NYM	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
71	Trevor Rogers	BAL	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+23
72	Michael Pineda T10		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+19
73	J.A. Happ		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+19
74	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+2
75	Carlos Rodón	NYY	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
76	Garrett Richards		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+21
77	Taijuan Walker	PHI	Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option	+UR
78	Brad Keller	PHI	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
79	Andrew Heaney T11		Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-1
80	Sean Manaea	NYM	Injury Risk Ratio Focused	+1
81	Yusei Kikuchi	LAA	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Toby	+7
82	Justin Dunn		Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+UR
83	Caleb Smith		Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+10
84	Chris Bassitt	BAL	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-4
85	Daulton Jefferies		Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
86	Elieser Hernández	ATL	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	-2
87	Dane Dunning	SEA	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-1
88	Griffin Canning	SD	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+10
89	Cristian Javier	HOU	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-
90	Daniel Ponce de Leon		Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
91	Casey Mize	DET	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+UR
92	Dustin May	STL	Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-2
93	Jake Arrieta T12		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
94	Mike Foltynewicz		Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
95	Matt Shoemaker		Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
96	Chris Archer		Injury Risk Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
97	Adam Wainwright		Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
98	David Peterson	NYM	Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR
99	Joey Lucchesi	LAA	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
100	Martín Pérez	ATL	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+UR

Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)