The List 8/27: Ranking All Starting Pitchers Based On ROS Schedules

The List that you know and (hopefully) love has retired for the season. Each week through the end of the year, I instead review the expected rest of season probable pitchers and sorting pitchers in a loose rank based on their expected matchups.

I began doing this a few years ago when I realized how heavily I began shifting from ranking pitchers based on their skill set to heavily weighing their expected matchups as the season’s end approached on the horizon. There’s simply more value than ever knowing who pitchers are facing and there’s no reason beating around the bush.

So today, The List will be separated into three parts: Opponent ranks, expected team schedules, and loosely ranked groupings of expected starts.

Disclaimer: This is incredibly hard to accomplish. Considering how even my streaming picks one or two days out often changes, you can imagine how difficult it can be to accurately predict which teams every pitcher with face in the next five weeks. Reasons for displaced rotations can be:

• Injuries
• Days-off that skip a fifth rotation spot or a pitcher simply gets skipped
• Days-off needed where teams make it a six-man rotation for a week or two
• Call-ups that steal rotation spots
• Double-headers and rain-outs
• The Dodgers being the stupid Dodgers
• Openers are a thing because I needed a proper bane for my existence

But I’m going to try my best because that’s all we can do at this point. I appreciate all of your for your patience as I had to color in every individual cell using Dan Wist’s awesome table tool & this would have taken even longer with Colin Charles’ amazing help outlining expected schedules.

Enough of that, enjoy the longest article I’ve written all season.

 

Team Offense Ranks

 

I’ve elected to group opposing offenses into five categories and color-coded them to help y’all easily identify good and bad estimated schedules.

 

Expected Matchups By Team

 

 

• It’s too bad the Orioles get some lovely schedules when we really don’t want to stream any of them.

 

• David Price should return next week, making this a messy schedule to create. Brian Johnson could easily be displaced as well as the season comes to its end.

 

 

 

• Here’s to hoping both Tony Disco and Castillo get that seventh start as they could both be valuable assets with their great ROS schedules.
• And we’ll cross our fingers Trevor Bauer gets his act together in time.

 

• Keep in mind, Corey Kluber could return in September, possibly directly taking over Plutko’s rotation spot. Three starts as a tune-up against Detroit, Chicago, and Washington may be it.

 

• With all matchups inside Coors, I moved teams up two tiers, so hosting the Pirates = 2nd tiers and Brewers + Brewers = Top tier.
• In all likelihood, the only starts that could matter here are a possible desperate stream of Lambert and Melville on the road against the Giants and Padres. And even that is bad
• German Marquez was placed on the IL and could return for his September 7th start, at the very least the road date against the Giants. Keep that in mind.

 

• There is a double-header against the White Sox on the 27th, with Zimmermann able to pitch on four-days rest, but VerHagen just on three-days for the 28th. Likely Edwin Jackson for that day. They’ll figure something out.
• This could also be a six-man rotation with Jackson included, so hold onto your butts.

 

• It’s unclear if Framber is indeed getting that Toronto start on the 31st, or even sticks in the rotation for that matter. Monitor this one closely.

 

• It’s too bad Keller performed so poorly on Monday as his next three starts really could return great value, even with a sub 100 pitch count (isn’t everyone for the most part anyway?). Here’s to hoping his velocity jumps back up to 94/95 mph on Saturday.

 

• Heaney manages to dodger a decent amount of poor matchups (Boston, Cleveland, New York), so enjoy his next four-start run before reluctantly dropping him the final week of the year.

 

 

• There’s a good amount of upside here inside the Marlins, without a ton of really scary matchups, save for the Nationals twice.
• Look to possibly stream a few if you need the big-swing plays.

 

• While I’d love Houser to get seven starts, it’s not cool that his final one would come in Coors.
• Jordan Lyles is the only one outside of Houser I’d consider much here, save for back-to-back stream with Gio Gonzalez and maybe Zach Davies in mid-September.

 

• It’s good being on the Twins, who have a two-week gauntlet sandwiched by amazing matchups.
• Consider streaming Martin Perez and Michael Pineda where you can.

 

• Despite Matz’s hot streak, he has a rugged path to the finish line, without a single 4th or 5th tier matchup.
• I wonder if these matchups make Marcus Stroman an easy drop in favor of what’s on your wire.

 

• The Yanks have a ton of lax games ahead, especially Paxton with 5/6 games coming from the two bottom tiers
• CC Sabathia could provide some value after his next Oakland start if you’re in a deeper league.

 

• Chris Bassitt could cruise to the end with his fantastic schedule, while Tanner Roark may be the sneakiest pickup of September.
• Homer Bailey takes the brunt of the matchups early, but could be serviceable in the back-half of September.

 

• There is a double-header against the Nationals on the 25th, but they’ll use a spot-starter for that.
• I’d avoid Jason Vargas for the most part here, while Vince Velasquez’s upside likely doesn’t warrant his risky schedule.

 

• Mitch Keller is the interesting one here, who could capitalize on every matchup ahead with his strong three-pitch repertoire. The floor is obviously low, but there may not be a bigger pickup to make.
• Sorry Joe Musgrove, even facing the Cards, Giants, and Mariners in a row isn’t enough to convince me to chase you. There’s just too much risk.

 

• Chris Paddack is very unlikely to get all of these starts and the Padres’ expected schedule is certainly going to be shifted around plenty as he misses starts or gets pushed back.
• It’s a pity that Dinelson Lamet is facing a difficult road ahead and it may be wise to move on from him as soon as after San Francisco – likely after the Cubs for most.

 

• Jeff Samardzija has been cruising and has a decent, but not great schedule ahead. Don’t ignore the schedule and I’d be dropping after St. Louis at the latest.
• Johnny Cueto is expected to return around the start of September, it’s possible he takes over for Dereck Rodriguez’s spot directly. Keep watch as he’s worth the pickup when he arrives (DLH, of course).

 

• I wouldn’t call myself a Dakota Hudson fan, but his first three matchups should be worthwhile.
• Miles Mikolas is a coin-flip without a high ceiling regardless of the matchup.

 

• This is assuming that Justus Sheffield isn’t returning to the rotation. This one is going to be messy.

 

• I’m guessing that Austin Pruitt is the one that slides into the fifth rotation spot with an opener before him. We don’t want this.

 

• Don’t rule out Kolby Allard or Brock Burke taking advantage of the rare decent matchups they have in the short term.
• Let’s collectively hope the 2019 magic of Lance Lynn powers through a different stretch to end the month.

 

• I seriously have no idea who that starter will be. I looked everywhere.
• The Jays have the worst team ROS schedule out there. Poor blue birds.

 

• There is a spot-start for a double-header on the 25th against the Phillies, you won’t want that.
• I wonder if Corbin is saved for a possible Day 163 instead of making that final start. Or maybe he needs to make it to win…

 

Starting Pitcher ROS Ranks

 

With these schedules in mind, I’ve elected to forgo the standard “Top 100” List and instead group pitchers into buckets. I left a “ranking” column just to help you keep track, but please note that these rankings are very loose. I have no problems with anyone suggesting certain starters should be higher/lower in certain tiers, or even jumping one or two based on the schedule.

This is mostly to help you strategize future starts and get a sense of who is out there that can help your teams in September. Matchups will be wrong, pitchers in the upside tier could easily be valuable than others. Please understand.

Let’s get to it then.

 

There are a lot of pitchers here and I considered adding more from the next tier, but had to stop somewhere. There were a few tough choices, such as where to place Walker Buehler and his possible five starts vs. others with six or even seven, while his teammate Hyun-Jin Ryu is expected to miss one if not more of his outings. Kyle Hendricks and Yu Darvish both have seven cushy starts as well and it was difficult to weigh their expected outings this far in advance.

 

 

We have potential aces in Bauer, Heavy, Berrios, and Boyd here, with guys that could take a step forward in Gallen, Wheeler, and Folty. Chris Paddack is likely to miss a few of these outings, or at least have a different schedule as he is skipped or pushed a day or two. Meanwhile, I hesitated where to put Eduardo Rodriguez and Dinelson Lamet, but each could be highly valuable in some key matchups. Lamet could be moved all the way to the “Upside” tier, just to give you a sense of the rankings not matter much at all.

 

 

This has a collection of Tobys, guys that have some upside to them, but without horrific schedules, save for Steven Matz and Joey Lucchesi who each have a bit of a slog to the end. Jose Quintana, like Darvish and Hendricks, has plenty of opportunity to come out as a big impact play for Sepetember. Just get those heaters up and curveballs/changeups down, thanks.

 

 

Some of these names will definitely fall under arms in the next group or two, as I could see myself passing on Zach Eflin’s tough end of the year, though I’d be fine grabbing him at least for the Mets and Reds next. Cal Quantrill may be a solid asset after today’s Dodgers outing and I was a little upset to see Ryan Yarbrough get three difficult matchups in the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees.

 

There’s a decent amount to consider here. Mike Montgomery has a tough end of year, but can be utilized early for his easy Orioles/Marlins/White Sox trio of starts. Framber Valdez may get that start on Sunday and stick in the rotation, maybe he gets passed over and doesn’t start again. Joe Musgrove could be a streaming asset but good luck with that. Alex Young should have been in the Toby tier, but I really wanted to outline here how good his schedule was, I’d likely had him around 61/62. It’s almost like the ranks don’t matter right now. JUST PLAN AHEAD.

Here are the guys that I’d be considering a bit during a given week of The List above plenty other names, but they don’t have excellent schedules. I love what Mitch Keller did last time out, but can he do it against the Phils on Wednesday? Can Dylan Cease carry over from his last start against the Twins and Indians? Brock Burke has made it work recently and could be valuable against the Mariners and Orioles. Will Pablo Lopez kick it into gear? Will Nathan Eovaldi be a solid play once he gets properly stretched out?

So many questions. It’s too bad Jacob Waguespack has an atrocious schedule. Poor Jays.