The List 8/15: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022 – Week 20

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to remove all the labels that I struggle to maintain through the season to instead give each player just one label at a time. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

 

 

I made a decision this year: I’ve removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, or if you want a primer on most of these pitchers, you can check out my 40,000 words from the pre-season via my Top 224 Starting Pitchers for 2022 from February. Both will help you get a grasp of my general thoughts on most of these guys (especially the roundup!) as I simply can’t detail everything about 100 pitchers in these notes each week.

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Lance McCullers Jr. (38), Dustin May (51)
• Removed: Max Fried (16)
• Net Gain Inside Top 60: (-1)

 

• Oh hey, it’s Tier one and nothing has changed. Sure, I could have moved down Shane McClanahan for his tick velocity drop, but then again, the man earned 20 whiffs.
• I could theoretically lower Sandy Alcantara, too, but naaaaah. I can’t do that. He’s thrown too many innings and will continue to do so. It is what it is.

 

• Tier two is a little different. Sure, the top three haven’t changed, but I shrunk the tier a bit as I felt the first four names are performing a step above those now in tier three.
• Dylan Cease makes the jump this week, though, as he’s been unreal over the last 14 starts where he hasn’t allowed more than 1 ER. Yes, you read that right. Since May 29th, Cease holds a 0.66 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 31.5% strikeout rate across 82.0 innings. So why isn’t he higher? Because of the 11% walk rate, .247 BABIP, 5.3% HR/FB, and 89% LOB rate in that time. It’s a wonderful run, fueled by his slider, but those walks will come back to bite him.

 

• In tier three, I moved down Brandon Woodruff and raised Julio Urías, while I felt I needed to give a slight dip to Alek Manoah (you can ignore Aaron Nola’s drop). Woodruff has been solid, but we’re not at the level of full trust yet, Urías has bumped up his four-seamer velocity to near 94 mph, and Manoah hasn’t been able to get the slider whiffs like we’re used to.
• Let’s also welcome Luis Castillo into the tier as he earned his AGA label this week. He performed well in two starts against the Yankees as has redeemed himself from a delayed start to the year.

 

• I’ve expanded Tier 4 a bit, first welcoming two former AGA players in Tony Gonsolin and Kevin Gausman. It’s not that Gonsolin has been terrible lately, but he’s showing signs of degradation and I don’t believe he’s performing at the level that warrants the badge. Still Top 25, though.
• As for Kevin Gausman, that WHIP is still exuberantly high and while I think it normalizes a bit through the end, there’s a sense we won’t see it until next year. Blame the Jays, but also blame his four-seamer command.

 

• It’s been a pleasure to watch Chris Bassitt return three straight scoreless performances as he’s flirting with an AGA badge once again. He may hover a 3.00 ERA when all is said and done.
• I also gave a significant rise to the trio of Blake Snell, Reid Detmers, and Lance Lynn. Snell is still in the same rhythm as he’s axed his changeup, Detmers is showcasing a phenomenal slider, and Lynn is looking more and more like his 2020/2021 self as his heater hovers 93/94 mph.

 

• I gave an “injury” tag to Kyle Wright as he’s dealing with dead arm (i.e. “Arm fatigue”). It came out via a two-tick drop in his last start and it’s unclear how it’ll affect him moving forward. He may make his next start on time and regain his velocity shortly, he could miss some time, or he could simply be underwhelming the rest of the way. We’ll see.

 

• In the fifth tier, I still can’t quite make out Triston McKenzie as his four-seamer and curveball have performed well, but I still question his command (especially that of his slider, which is often all over the place), even after taking down the Jays and Astros back-to-back. It’s weird, don’t hate me for this.
• It’s been frustrating dealing with Charlie Morton as he’s acted like a Cherry Bomb across the last month. I believe that Morton will be more sweet than sour down the stretch, but I had to pull him down for the volatility.

 

• Let’s welcome Lance McCullers Jr. back to The List this week after performing far above expectations over the weekend. He’s not out of the woods yet, but this was an encouraging outing, especially with his curve.
• Frankie Montas gets a dip this week as he hasn’t looked like himself for a while now. He’s failed to get stretched out since the shoulder injury and even his productive outing against the Red Sox came without his slider – this isn’t the man we know from the spring.

 

• I elected to turn Tier 6 into the proper “Toby but the best version” tier, which means I dragged some guys from Tier 5 down and some from Tier 7/8 up. It also pushes guys like Lucas Giolito and Tyler Mahle slightly higher than I’d like and guys like Luis Garcia, Dustin May, and Edward Cabrera a touch lower as they are in separate tiers. Sometimes it’s better to have good groupings.

 

• Let’s talk about said Tier 6 arms. Jordan Montgomery seems to be in a wonderful place in St. Louis, flashing more four-seamers than sinkers and succeeding with the new adjustment. Merrill Kelly and Adam Wainwright have demanded more praise from me for a bit and I’m happy to give them their just rewards with Top 50 spots.
• Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert and Martín Pérez are not performing like their first-half counterparts. Gilbert hasn’t found a proper secondary pitch and Pérez’s changeup command is starting to waver, slightly. Still roster them both, but you may have to make a change or two in the near future (moreso Pérez than Gilbert).

 

• Hey, it’s Dustin May! I have my concerns about how much the Dodgers will let him go – see Andrew Heaney – but his talent is too good for you to pass up on him, however limited at first. It felt right to place him behind the guys who have productively gone 6+ frames for you and place May above those who are more of a gamble.
• You’re seeing plenty of green from guys here, which should make sense given we’re at the point of chasing upside. George Kirby has locked into the Mariners rotation, Brady Singer has been studly across 5 of his last 6 starts and may continue to erase the notions he’s a Cherry Bomb, Jeffrey Springs has displayed much better command, and Edward Cabrera passed a challenge against the Phillies.

 

• Have you noticed the struggles of Luis Garcia? He’s allowed 15 ER across his last four games, including two 4 ER affairs against the Athletics. His slider has tapered off, and his fastball hasn’t been able to take control, going last game without a single whiff. It may be a product of fatigue like we saw this time last year and I’d proceed with caution.
• I’m a bit concerned with Mike Clevinger’s lack of secondary dominance and wonder if I should pull him down further. He had many fall past him this week, though, making him oddly neutral despite my adoration waning.

 

• You may need rose-colored glasses for Tier 8. Jesús Luzardo hasn’t had the 97 mph velocity nor the curve from the spring and with a tough schedule ahead, it could be a tough month rostering him. And Nick Lodolo’s command has been a bit wonky and it may take more time for him to get into form.
• The Dodgers haven’t let Andrew Heaney go five innings yet, though his last start ended earlier after a comebacker to the shoulder. That said, I’m finding myself favoring arms who can make a larger impact.

 

• I had to give some love to Drew Rasmussen as there’s a chance his pristine command sticks to some degree in the coming starts after going eight perfect frames against the Orioles. That cutter & four-seamer combo was phenomenal.
• Sean Manaea isn’t necessarily pitching much better, but his future schedule is divine. It means I’d rather roster him than most others inside Tier 8.

 

• Tier 9 is the Cherry Bomb tier, leading with Nathan Eovaldi who arguably deserves more love for surviving despite sitting just above 94 mph on his heater. I worry about his sustainability with the plenty-worse heater, but hey, he deserves the praise for it.
• I know, a dip for Michael Kopech after he just earned a Golden Goal and fanned eleven, but I don’t think this start against the Tigers warrants a change of viewpoint and I had to move a few others ahead of him, like Quintana, Singer, Rasmussen, and Eovaldi.

 

• Hats off to Justin Steele for returning 19 strikeouts over his last two starts, albeit against mediocre lineups. His slider has been stupid good this year with a sub 13% HC rate and the overall pitch separation has been plenty better as of late with his four-seamer. There could be something there.
• Despite surviving against Atlanta, we saw him against the Phillies as well this week and it seems clear that Braxton Garrett isn’t going to run away with dominant start after dominant start. He’ll have his fair share of good games with his slider, but it doesn’t make for a pitcher you have to get in on before it’s too late.

 

• Welcome to the 10th Tier, where we have a mash of Toby types and gambles you can take instead if you prefer to chase upside. The biggest fallers here are José Berríos (understandable given his turmoil) and Alex Wood, the latter of which may be confusing given how he’s looked in his last two starts. Sadly, he has a tough schedule ahead and I don’t trust Wood to come out on top.
• I had to add Michael Wacha back to The List to a solid spot at #75 after the display he put on Sunday night. His four-seamer and changeup were immaculately spotted through the game and it’s the most excited I’ve been for Wacha all year. That said, it was one start and it could disappear by his next performance.

 

• I’m not sure what to do with Josiah Gray these days as he has the ability to earn whiffs, but his command is too erratic to know when he’ll do so without hurting your ratios. Taking chances against weak opponents is the best that we can do.
• The 11th tier has your backup options if you’re looking for anything of interest. We have your backup Toby types in Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, your questionable ceilings in Drew Smyly (nice curveball!) and Kris Bubic (93 mph?!), and the ridiculous magic of Johnny Cueto.

 

• I couldn’t not put Cal Quantrill on The List once again after a sparkling outing against the Blue Jays. I can’t say I want to roster him everywhere, but I get it.
• We could be seeing the rise of Ranger Suárez in the final weeks of the season, but he’ll need his changeup back to do so – the slow ball was not what we want it to be in his last outing.

 

• In the bottom tier, you have your desperation upside plays. Austin Voth’s curveball has propelled some success, JP Sears is getting starts for Oakland and could tune his command, and even Touki Toussaint is getting another shot for the Angels. I wouldn’t bet on any of these working out, but hey, it could happen.
• At the 100th spot is Tyler Beede, who may be a very foolish play to make right now. That said, he’s at 96 mph on his heater and has had flashes with his curveball. There’s a slim chance he realizes his potential and it makes him a fun #100 arm.

 

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

(Thanks)

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
2	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	-
7	Justin Verlander	Aces Gonna Ace	-
8	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace	-
9	Joe Musgrove T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-
10	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace	-
11	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace	-
12	Dylan Cease	Aces Gonna Ace	+3
13	Brandon Woodruff T3	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
14	Julio Urías	Aces Gonna Ace	+5
15	Alek Manoah	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
16	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
17	Logan Webb	Aces Gonna Ace	-
18	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace	-
19	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
20	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
21	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace	+3
22	Chris Bassitt T4	Ace Potential	+6
23	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential	+3
24	Tony Gonsolin	Ace Potential	-1
25	Kevin Gausman	Ace Potential	-5
26	Pablo López	Ace Potential	+1
27	Blake Snell	Ace Potential	+9
28	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	+13
29	Lance Lynn	Ace Potential	+8
30	Spencer Strider	Ace Potential	-
31	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential	+2
32	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-7
33	Triston McKenzie T5	Ace Potential	-1
34	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	-5
35	Cristian Javier	Ace Potential	+3
36	Tyler Anderson	Quality Starts	-1
37	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential	+2
38	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential	+UR
39	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential	-8
40	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential	-
41	Lucas Giolito	Ace Potential	+5
42	Tyler Mahle	Strikeout Upside	+3
43	Jordan Montgomery T6	Quality Starts	+9
44	Merrill Kelly	Quality Starts	+5
45	Miles Mikolas	Quality Starts	-1
46	Carlos Carrasco	Quality Starts	+7
47	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts	+25
48	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	+2
49	Logan Gilbert	Quality Starts	-7
50	Martín Pérez	Quality Starts	-7
51	Dustin May T7	Ace Potential	+UR
52	Edward Cabrera	Ace Potential	+6
53	George Kirby	Quality Starts	+11
54	Luis Garcia	Strikeout Upside	-20
55	Mike Clevinger	Ace Potential	-
56	Jeffrey Springs	Strikeout Upside	+7
57	Taijuan Walker	Quality Starts	-3
58	Jose Quintana	Toby	+16
59	Brady Singer	Strikeout Upside	+19
60	Joe Ryan T8	Ace Potential	-1
61	Sean Manaea	Cherry Bomb	+1
62	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential	-14
63	Nick Lodolo	Cherry Bomb	-16
64	Aaron Ashby	Cherry Bomb	-8
65	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	-4
66	José Urquidy	Quality Starts	-9
67	Drew Rasmussen	Toby	+15
68	Andrew Heaney	Low Ips	-17
69	Nathan Eovaldi T9	Cherry Bomb	+7
70	Michael Kopech	Cherry Bomb	-3
71	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	-3
72	Patrick Sandoval	Cherry Bomb	-7
73	Justin Steele	Cherry Bomb	+12
74	Braxton Garrett	Cherry Bomb	-14
75	Michael Wacha T10	Toby	+UR
76	Corey Kluber	Toby	-5
77	Jameson Taillon	Toby	+3
78	Noah Syndergaard	Toby	-5
79	Cole Irvin	Toby	-4
80	José Berríos	Cherry Bomb	-14
81	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	-11
82	Alex Wood	Cherry Bomb	-13
83	Eric Lauer	Cherry Bomb	-6
84	Domingo Germán	Cherry Bomb	-3
85	Johnny Cueto T11	Toby	-6
86	Aaron Civale	Toby	+2
87	Zach Plesac	Toby	+2
88		Streaming Option	+7
89	Kris Bubic	Streaming Option	+UR
90	Ranger Suárez	Streaming Option	-7
91	Marco Gonzales	Toby	-5
92	Cal Quantrill	Toby	+UR
93	Kyle Gibson	Toby	-6
94	Jake Odorizzi	Streaming Option	-10
95	Austin Voth T12	Streaming Option	+UR
96	James Kaprielian	Streaming Option	-5
97	Graham Ashcraft	Streaming Option	-
98		Streaming Option	+UR
99	Touki Toussaint	Streaming Option	+UR
100	Tyler Beede	Stash Option	+UR

 

Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)