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The List 6/28: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 14

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2021 - Week 13.

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 12’s starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00am – 11:00am EST Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream for The List.

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

For those unaware:

  • Cherry Bomb = A volatile pitcher who is either super sweet or blows up in your face. There are few middle grounds.
  • Toby = A middling pitcher who you can’t decide if they do enough to stay on your team and give you the itch to drop every single day. Named after Toby from The Office.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

  1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
  2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
  3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
  4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
  5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

  • This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
  • Seriously. Read the notes.

 

  • It’s been a whirlwind of changes over the past two months and this week…not a whole lot. Still plenty of significant changes, but we avoided an ace getting hurt (sweet!) and the Top 21 arms barely shifted.
  • Gerrit Cole did fall a few spots as he hasn’t been quite the same pitcher after lowering his spin rates. He still has excellent stuff, though, and I expect him to rebound. It’s a rough patch, not a fall from grace.

 

  • Tier 3 doesn’t have a whole lot of change either. Robbie Ray gets the slight bump over Max Fried as the latter returns from the IL and the former has continued his blazing trail of domination.
  • Lance McCullers jumps in at the end after establishing his slider in his latest outing. Now that he’s getting full starts and showcasing at least one breaker, we should feel plenty confident in his production moving forward.

 

  • There’s a reason for the positive marks at the end of Tier 3 – Hyun Jin Ryu took a tumble as he simply doesn’t have his changeup and it’s affected him drastically. I do feel that he’ll get the pitch back over time (and his cutter too, while we’re at it), but he deserves the drop for now considering his ceiling isn’t a Top 10 arm.
  • The fourth tier is filled with fun names, though Tyler Mahle has displayed more volatility than we’d like with three of his last four games coming with at least three earned runs. It’s not that Mahle shouldn’t help your teams – he’s #31! – but the other pitchers carry a more believable ceiling.

 

  • Kyle Gibson has been stupid good and earned him a Gallows Pole with 20 whiffs catalyzing a 10 strikeout performance. It’s something else.
  • It’s great to see Aaron Nola take a step forward on his redemption tour with twelve strikeouts against the Mets. Before we shoot him back up the ranks, we need to see more success first. I’m crossing my fingers it’s coming.

 

  • We had a solid debate in the Twitch chat about where to place Zac Gallenultimately deciding on #35. It’s a mixture of expecting Gallen to reclaim the feel for his secondaries over time, allowing him to catapult into possible Top 20 territory, while understanding he isn’t performing as well currently as those around him. It’s always a balance.
  • Ryu isn’t the largest drop of Tier 5, as that honor goes to Marcus Stromanwho falls 20 spots to #45. The mix of a lower ceiling + an injury that has clearly affected him has him lower than a huge amount of arms who are pitching at their potential and even hinting at more. It’s a tough tier to be in when things aren’t going your way.

 

  • In Tier 6, I’m encouraged by Blake Snell’s recent outing and I know, I KNOW, A -3 mark seems so wrong. Please don’t be mad. It’s a question of trust – I raised others up in the rankings (José Urquidyfor example) as I’m buying their success a bit more than Snell. This wasn’t me pulling Blake down the ranks, and we just need to see him consistently perform at the high level before we make the climb.
  • Chris Paddack also saw a drop in the tier as he fell nine spots. I was encouraged by Paddack’s previous two outings, but his latest was a major step in the opposite direction. Let’s hope he rebounds.

 

  • Tier 7 is somewhat stable from last week, save for Alex Wood who…yeah, I know, did super well in his last outing. Why is he dropping? Because it didn’t come with the elite slider that has carried him all season before his June hiccups. I’m worried it was a blip and seeing another outing without the sweeper dominating is another nail in the coffin. I should also note, Maeda, Miley, Sandoval, Odorizzi, and Mize all gave decent hints of success this week, too.
  • Speaking of which Patrick Sandoval still rises despite an underwhelming game against the Rays. I didn’t innately touch his ranking (it shifted due to others going up or down) and we’re still in the same place as before – I love his changeup (and expect it to return after not being there on Sunday) and his slider hints at becoming a consistent secondary weapon.

 

  • It was a disaster last Monday for Frankie Montas as gloopgate seemed to affect the Oakland starter against the Rangers. He was better over the weekend, but I’m worried that the stable rock we envisioned just isn’t that great for our fantasy squads as we imagined.
  • James Kaprielian jumped a bit this week into Tier 8 as he’s showcased himself as a glorified TobyThere are moments of strikeout upside in there too, but I see him mostly as a decent arm to avoid against tough teams. Nothing more.

 

  • I’ve been a bit disappointed with Ross Stripling this week as he didn’t carry the excellent secondaries we saw during his start against the Yankees. We just saw two outings with an underwhelming curveball, changeup, and slider, and I’m a little worried it’s priming Ross for a blowup.
  • Germán Márquez gets some love this week as I simply can’t ignore how good his slider (Money Pitch!) and curveball have been this year. Coors is undefeated and all that, so be careful, but he really does deserve praise for what he can do.

 

  • I elected to give a bump to Eduardo Rodriguez as his fastball command has improved as of late and we may be on the verge of Erod having one of his solid stretches. Obviously don’t love him that much – he’s at #71, after all and we’re plenty past the point of “must-hold” arms – but he should be considered heavily.
  • I dropped Jordan Montgomery slightly as I still believe there’s a corner that can be turned here but he’s hasn’t quite figured it out yet. The curveball, change, cutter, fastball approach can be legit.

 

  • In the tenth tier it’s getting tricky. On one hand, you have Jameson Taillon tossing one of his best games of the season as he landed curveballs and sliders down, though even while watching him do it, I wonder if the shape of his breakers are as good as we need them to be. We need to see more.
  • On the other hand, there’s Adbert Alzolay who fell 18 spots as he hasn’t looked the same since returning from the IL. It’s best for us to look elsewhere until he pitches at a level reminiscent of his May self.

 

  • Nick Pivetta rose fifteen spots as I loved watching him pepper the top of the zone with 95+ mph heaters and finally get his sliders and curveballs down. It wasn’t as precise as we want, but he may be churning out enough production consistently enough to warrant a hold in 12-teamers.
  • I also gave a pump to Zach Thompson after dominating not only with his excellent cutter, but with four-seamer command around the edges. I’m a little skeptical that he’s this good and he would have risen more if not for a date with Atlanta and the Dodgers next on the agenda. Who knows what kind of opportunities he’ll have on the other side of the All-Star break and I’d be cautious in those two starts.

 

  • Making his debut on The List is Kyle Mullerwho had a decent four-inning performance followed by five frames of shutout ball with nine strikeouts against the Reds. His command is still in question, though 95+ heat with a pair of CSW-friendly breakers makes my heart flutter. He gets the Marlins next this week and I’d be looking to pick him up and take a calculated risk.
  • Joining Muller is the return of Danny Duffywho tossed just two frames against the Yankees. It’s unclear how much he’ll get to go for in the future, but he was sitting 94/95 mph once again and that should have your attention – Duffy’s increased velocity in April is what made him excel, after all. The low ranking is a product of wondering if he’ll even pitch enough to be helpful.

 

  • I couldn’t help but add Jon Gray this week as well, returning from the IL in incredible fashion, sitting 96 mph instead of his normal 94 and change. It’s still a Rockies pitcher, but there’s value to be had.
  • Despite tossing his best start so far, Tony Gonsolin dropped a bit as I have yet to see his slider do what we want it to. That pitch is what propelled Gonsolin into the dominant starter in previous seasons and without it, Gonsolin is highly susceptible to a blow-up. Not to mention, he’s suffering from a bit of #Dodgeritis as we just don’t know how the Dodgers will use him moving forward – how many pitches will he go for in his next start?

 

  • Tier 11 is filled with plenty of question marks. I gave a drop to Marco Gonzales, Dylan Bundyand Griffin Canningall pitchers who have spent many days with a higher ranking yet have gave managers fits this season. Instead of relying on them to blossom, I’d consider searching for something new.
  • Caleb Smith rises to #87 despite not impressing me much against the Brewers. We’re looking 92 mph + one of his slider or changeup to show up in a given outing and this one saw sub 91 mph and poor secondaries. Still, the ceiling is there and he could display the upside in a blink of an eye.

 

  • Many of this week’s newcomers lie in the eleventh tier with Tony Santillan, Steven Matz, Eli Morgan, and Merrill KellySantillan impressed with better command and becomes an interesting spec add, Matz returns from the IL and could be a valuable back-end arm again, and Kelly has been a volatile streamer as he’s constantly sat 92/93 mph.
  • Eli Morgan is the interesting one. His changeup was phenomenal against the Cubs, while his fastball rarely leaked over the plate. He did get gassed as the game went on, though, and it’s hard to bank on his fastball command being that good again.

 

  • In the final tier, it’s a whole lot of red as I wondered who could be worthwhile as a possible streamer for twelve teamers. Alex Cobb took the biggest tumble as he simply hasn’t been the consistent streamer we thought he could be with his splitter back in action. There’s still hope here, it’s just a hard bet to make at this point.
  • I elect to give the final #100 rank to an intriguing arm each week and here we have Chris Flexen after he earned 19 whiffs in his last start. Sure, it was against Rockie Roadthough what impressed me the most how he had success with his four-seamer and curveball, not his cutter. It may be something to build upon, just don’t get too wrapped up in it- he gets the Jays this week and that’s a clear bench.

 

Fringe Pitchers I Considered

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

RankPitcherBadgesChange
1Jacob deGromT1
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
-
2Yu Darvish
T2
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
3Max Scherzer
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
4Gerrit Cole
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-2
5Brandon Woodruff
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
-
6Zack Wheeler
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
7Lucas Giolito
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
8Clayton Kershaw
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
9Lance Lynn
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
10Walker Buehler
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
-
11Carlos Rodón
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
12Kevin Gausman
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
13Trevor Bauer
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
14Corbin Burnes
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
-
15Trevor Rogers
T3
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
16Freddy Peralta
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
-
17Framber Valdez
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
18Robbie Ray
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
19Max Fried
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
-1
20Julio Urías
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
-
21Sandy Alcantara
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
22Joe Musgrove
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
+1
23Pablo López
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
24Lance McCullers Jr.
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+7
25Sean Manaea
T4
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Ratio Focused
+2
26Shohei Ohtani
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
+7
27Charlie Morton
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+7
28Kyle Gibson
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+8
29Aaron Nola
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+8
30Yusei Kikuchi
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
31Tyler Mahle
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-5
32Ian Anderson
T5
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Ratio Focused
-
33José Berríos
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Cherry Bomb
+2
34Hyun Jin Ryu
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-12
35Zac Gallen
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
-6
36Taijuan Walker
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+2
37Chris Bassitt
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
+2
38Tarik Skubal
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
+7
39Dylan Cease
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
40Shane McClanahan
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+1
41Zack Greinke
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
+3
42Luis Castillo
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+5
43José Urquidy
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question
Ratio Focused
+6
44Luis García
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+6
45Marcus Stroman
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
-20
46Blake Snell
T6
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
-3
47Kyle Hendricks
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
+4
48Anthony DeSclafani
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+4
49Adam Wainwright
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Cherry Bomb
+4
50Alek Manoah
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+4
51Chris Paddack
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
-9
52Kenta Maeda
T7
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+3
53Wade Miley
Injury Risk
Toby
Ratio Focused
+4
54Patrick Sandoval
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
+4
55Jake Odorizzi
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
+4
56Casey Mize
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+5
57Alex Wood
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
-1
58Frankie Montas
T8
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Cherry Bomb
-12
59JT Brubaker
Toby
Ratio Focused
+4
60Andrew Heaney
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+4
61Rich Hill
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+4
62James Kaprielian
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Toby
Streaming Option
+12
63Patrick Corbin
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Stash Option
+7
64Ross Stripling
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
-2
65Germán Márquez
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+11
66Domingo Germán
T9
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
-
67Zach Eflin
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
68Logan Gilbert
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
+1
69Nathan Eovaldi
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+3
70Jordan Montgomery
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
Ratio Focused
-2
71Eduardo Rodriguez
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
+10
72Dallas Keuchel
Quality Starts
Toby
Ratio Focused
+1
73Cole Irvin
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
+9
74Jameson Taillon
T10
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
+3
75Joe Ross
Strikeout Upside
Toby
Streaming Option
+8
76Nick Pivetta
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+15
77Kyle Muller
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
+UR
78Adbert Alzolay
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
-18
79Zach Thompson
Playing Time Question
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
Stash Option
+9
80Tony Gonsolin
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
-9
81Danny Duffy
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
+UR
82Matt Manning
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
Stash Option
+3
83Jon Gray
Injury Risk
Cherry Bomb
+UR
84Marco Gonzales
T11
Quality Starts
Toby
Ratio Focused
-9
85Dylan Bundy
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Stash Option
-5
86Griffin Canning
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
-7
87Caleb Smith
Streaming Option
Stash Option
+13
88Tony Santillan
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
Stash Option
+UR
89Steven Matz
Injury Risk
Cherry Bomb
+UR
90Eli Morgan
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
+UR
91Merrill Kelly
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
+UR
92Johnny Cueto
T12
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-
93Ryan Yarbrough
Playing Time Question
Toby
Ratio Focused
-6
94Sam Long
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
Stash Option
-10
95Alex Cobb
Streaming Option
-17
96Mike Minor
Streaming Option
-10
97
Streaming Option
-2
98Dane Dunning
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
-2
99Martín Pérez
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-5
100Chris Flexen
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
+UR

Labels Legend

Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question

Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

13 responses to “The List 6/28: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 14”

  1. Ryan Yarbrough says:

    Yarbrough dropping and at 93, ie considered barely rosterable in a 16-teamer. I guess I’ll take a solid SP on a Top 5 team with ERA estimators <4.00 and WHIP <1.20.

    • theKraken says:

      I wouldn’t want him on my squad. It depends on the format though. He is very fringe waiver material due to lack of Ks in most formats. Pitching for the Rays is a huge negative, not a positive. I do like the WHIP and I do see the appeal, but it is not exciting. If he was trusted to pitch deep then it would be a different story. I think of him as a guy that is only going to face soft match-ups, so the numbers are a bit beyond the skill. You might be right though – maybe the Rays are going to rely on him more that they have added Glasnow to the injury pile. They will need someone to pitch some innings for them. While I would agree that he should be above many of the rookies above him, he isn’t very interesting. He has some weird splits that support the idea that he just out there to sponge up low leverage innings but he will be gone when things get interesting. He also has been considerable better as an RP. I will take him a bit more seriously as a result of what you pointed out – thanks for bringing him to my attention.

  2. theKraken says:

    I have little confidence in McCullers production going forward. Consistency and health are skills. I would much rather have a struggling guy that has done it before like Nola. I wouldn’t take 2 McCullers for one Nola. Heck, I would prefer a Greinke. I think Rich Hill might even outproduce him the rest of the way. LM is anything but reliable and I will have zero confidence in him until he does it for a long stretch without trips to the DL.

    Fried is also a guy that I think is always several tiers over his head. The pandemic was the only season where he has ever been good. The Braves generally have the most overrated players in the game. I think there are a lot of transient (Twitter) baseball fans that “follow the Braves and they make a lot of noise. The Cubs used to be the team in that position. It is very helpful to realize the teams that have the buzz. I will admit that I have avoided players on popular teams at times and it doesn’t always work out well but it is a good thought.

  3. DB says:

    I haven’t trusted Duffy since: https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/08/29/danny-duffy-was-arrested-after-he-passed-out-in-a-burger-king-drive-through/

    AKA: Danny Duffy was arrested after he passed out [drunk driving] in a Burger King drive-through

    This season prior to his IL stint, though, has made me a believer. He’s obviously turned SOMETHING around, and the velo is all I need to roster him after that great start to the season. I won’t actually start him until the start after the one against the Sawx, but I think he’s worth the roster spot for the time being.

  4. Dave says:

    Nick – thanks for doing these. Question regarding your rule #3 which states “These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.” Does this mean you expect (hope?) listed pitchers remain in the rotation for the remainder of the season (barring injury)? I’m thinking of guys like Kyle Muller, Zach Thompson, Tony Santillan, Eli Morgan, and Sam Long that may be temporary fills. Thanks

  5. Dave says:

    Robbie Ray with his whopping 2.01 HR/9… wow… WOW! But, I guess it doesn’t matter as long as his ERA and WHIP are still good.

  6. Lion says:

    Hey Nick,
    Is Luis Castillo back? Or are we still tentatively selecting based on matchups?

  7. maaleamsp says:

    Love the note on Cole “after lowering his spin rates” if The sports wo

  8. maaleamsp says:

    World goes belly up, a job as a spin doctor awaits you, Nick.

  9. Baseball fan says:

    Giolito over Buehler & Bauer ??????

  10. Baseball fan says:

    Also Shohei severely overrated (as a pitcher)

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