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The List 5/10: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 7

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2021 - Week 7.

It’s the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball and it’s time for Week 7’s starting pitcher rankings.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

Here are the rules for those wondering why a pitcher is or isn’t ranked here:

  1. If a pitcher is on the IL or out of the rotation and not confirmed for a start this week, they are pushed into the Fringe table.
  2. If a pitcher is in a rotation and not confirmed to start but has not been placed on the IL or officially removed, they remain on The List.
  3. These rankings are made as if I am drafting a team today for the rest of the season.
  4. This means the Top 40-50 picks are more for ROS, while the rankings after are more short-term focused.
  5. I will only incorporate a game played on Monday if the pitcher’s performance is completed before 2:00pm EST.

 

Ranking Notes

 

  • This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
  • Seriously. Read the notes.

 

  • Jacob deGrom was placed on the IL today and it stinks. He should miss just one start, though, and I can’t wait for all the comments next week about a pitcher receiving a “-1” next to their name.
  • Speaking of which, Corbin Burnes and Hyun Jin Ryu both returned to The List this week, granting, get this, an innate “-1” ranking to everyone past #17. Please take this into consideration. Please.

 

  • In the third tier, Aaron Nola and Lucas Giolito each fell, yet are still clear Top 15 arms. Nola’s movement is less about him and more that the other arms are proving more consistent with the same volume, while Giolito’s recent stretch is a bit more concerning. I think he can get the velocity up from sub 93 mph + figure out his changeup command, but for now, he’s pushed behind Tyler Glasnow.
  • I’m liking what Jack Flaherty has done with his slider as of late and could start hinting at his second half of 2019. There’s still a bit of work to be done with his heaters, but that can easily arrive soon.

 

  • Tier 4 may be the most interesting one of the week. It starts with the return of Hyun Jin Ryu as he returned from the IL. With his Still ILL start behind him, expect him to be a Top 20 play moving forward.
  • Sonny Gray’s curveball is in top form and there’s still improvement to come with his slider. It’s hard to argue against 11 strikeouts against the Dodgers as he’s looking like the pitcher who was promised over the winter.

 

  • I have a sense that I want to give the AGA label to everyone inside of this Tier, but it’s proper tradition to do so inside their SP Roundup blurbs. That said, Zack Wheeler certainly pitched like one against the Brewers for a CGSHO and as long as he doesn’t sputter, he’ll get his AGA title returned next week.
  • Kevin Gausman, John Meansand Trevor Rogers have all pitched up to the AGA level as well and I’m waiting for one more start each to grant them their coveted status.

 

  • Meanwhile, Dylan Bundy was oh-so-close before stumbling against the Dodgers. Hopefully, he can recover against Boston and Minnesota next.
  • Yes, Julio Urías stays ranked high – his last stumble was more bad luck than poor ability. He’s a strong arm for your squads.

 

  • I took no joy placing Joe Musgrove and Lance McCullers in Tier 5, but I didn’t have much choice – those in Tier 4 are performing more consistently + they each have a small flaw. Musgrove had struggled to follow his blueprint in his last few starts, while McCullers has recently not had his new slider. I believe both will recover, but they deserved the dip.
  • Zach Plesac was electric against the Reds this week, changing his approach against lefties as he introduced a curveball that keep batters off-balance. Paired with his solid changeup and slider, Plesac has a deeper repertoire that should make him a stable arm through the year. Who doesn’t love a starter who can go eight frames?

 

  • Blake Snell takes a tumble this week as he still can’t find a way to go six frames. The main issue stems from an inability to throw sliders or curveballs inside the zone and without it, he gets into deeper counts and his fastball becomes more hittable. Here’s to a jump back up the list in the upcoming weeks.
  • With Max Fried returning from the IL and expressing comfort, I imagine we’ll see a steady climb in future weeks. We just need to make sure he’s all stable for now.

 

  • The back end of Tier 5 contains Carlos Rodónwho is defying all our expectations with a 94/95 mph fastball – he’s never averaged above 93.5 mph on his fastball for a full season. He certainly performing at a level deserving of Top 20, but the question is how long he can keep it up considering he’s never done it before.
  • Charlie Morton nearly made the fifth tier, but with his rough start to the season, it’s best to push him into the “tier of disappointment.” He pitched plenty better than his last start would indicate and I still label him as one of the best ‘Buy Lows” out there.

 

  • With Morton in Tier 6 is Luis Castillo and José BerríosCastillo is failing to get the same strikes with his changeup + his fastball command is ballooning his BABIP past .360. I expect it to improve, but it’s been rough so far and I can’t keep him above all the success stories. With Berríos, his curveball is performing well, though he’s lost his feel for his fastball. I’m confident it will return soon, but he’s not at the same level as others currently.
  • Huascar Ynoa also shows up in Tier 6 as he continues to build his legacy. It’s hard not to question the legitimacy of a two-pitch mix, but, like Rodón, he doesn’t have the track record to push him higher. Yet.

 

  • Climbing up the Ranks is Robbie Raywho gave us his third straight start of four-seamers at 96+ and finding the zone constantly. The result? A 9/0 K/BB as he boasts a 23/0 mark for three games. It’s starting to feel real now and it could be more sustainable once he finds the feel for his slider and curveball as well.
  • Zack Greinke falls to #45 as he has failed to be the rock you drafted him to be. It has been a tough schedule, though, and I envision Greinke still being a sub 4.00, sub 1.20 WHIP arm for your rotations when all is said and done. Hold onto him.

 

  • Chris Paddack returns to The List as he made his Sunday start after on the COVID-IL. It was just three frames and there is a touch of concern that he’ll need to ramp up again from the sub-60 pitch count, however his fastball looked as good as we’ve seen from him since 2019 and there’s hope he can build on it moving forward.
  • José Urquidy’s fall may be startling, but it’s more of a product of giving love to guys like Heaney, Wood, and Manaea. Urquidy, meanwhile, isn’t quite coming through on all his pitches, inhibiting his strikeouts along the way. I imagine he’ll get his slider and curveball working again shortly.

 

  • Tier 8 is what I’m calling “The Stash Tier”. Shohei Ohtani and Shane McClanahan lead it off as two arms I believe will improve as the season continues. In the meantime, Ohtani could still be productive and McClanahan could creep past that 80 pitch mark after touching it over the weekend.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez is in here as well after failing to have his fastball for two straight starts. That won’t be the case for the year, but right now, he’s a stash.

 

  • Next in Tier 9 are a collection of arms you should feel good rostering at the moment. Will they be in your rotation for the full year? Likely not, but you can’t deny the rolls Kyle Gibson, Michael Pinedaand JT Brubaker are currently on.
  • Dylan Cease and Yusei Kikuchi have each looked well in their last two starts and may continue their strikeout totals moving forward. I do have a bit of worry in Cease’s fastball and changeup command, however that slider is looking filthy.

 

  • Tier 10 is where you’ll find Patrick Corbin and Kyle Hendricksa pair of arms who should be performing better but haven’t had the results you want. I still believe they’ll be worth your time at some point this season – maybe now is that time! – but as of now, there’s still a lot of risk and I understand using their spots for something more tangible in the short term.
  • With the way Garrett Richards is pumping the zone with four-seamers, he’s opening the door for his slider to take over. We haven’t seen it quite yet, but if that slider returns, he could rise in a hurry.

 

  • Triston McKenzie could be considered a stash option at the moment as he needs to improve his fastball command + establish a better blueprint for his secondary pitches.
  • With the start of Tier 11, Matthew Boyd returns to the picture and it’s unclear if he can pick up where he left off. Hopefully his knee injury doesn’t hold him back as I wait with bated breath to see if his slider is finally back.

 

  • Nathan Eovaldi took a spill this week as he’s performed poorly against the Tigers and Mariners across his last three outings. Now with a rough schedule ahead, I have less faith his secondary stuff can hold up their end of the bargain.
  • I know that Wade Miley just tossed a no-hitter – awesome! – but he’s still just a Toby who has the face Coors + the southpaw-crushing Giants next. That’s not for me.

 

  • I know, I know, Tyler Anderson has been absurdly good as of late, but he has to endure the aforementioned Giants next, then face Atlanta. You’ll have to be strong-willed to throw Tyler out there for both of those outings.
  • Tier 12 also holds Dane Dunning who fanned ten against the Mariners, but played with fire as he nearly allowed 6 ER via a grand slam that went foul. Sure, it didn’t happen, but it’s an expression of how close Dunning is to being back on your wire and with Houston + NYY + LAA next, I’m not sure I want to start him for any of it.

 

  • We have a second “Stash Tier” at Tier 13 with Daniel Lynch at the top. He has been incredibly disappointing thus far, but his stuff is incredibly impressive. If the fastball command found on scouting reports shows itself, Lynch could turn into a quality 12-teamer arm in a hurry.
  • Tarik Skubal and Nate Pearson each make their home in Tier 13 as well. Skubal just fanned eight with a splitter (I’m not sure that sticks, but he’s adapting as he searches for a dependable secondary approach!) and Pearson is obviously more than a pitcher who walks five and fans none. There’s upside here.

 

  • We’re closing out The List with possible streaming options and Joe Ross starts as he’s getting whiffs with four-seamers and sinkers. He’s incredibly risky on a given night, but at least he’s been given consistent opportunities for the Nationals.
  • Finally, Matt Shoemaker has returned to The List along with his slider. There may be some worthwhile starts ahead as he sneaks some Wins.

 

Fringe Pitchers I Considered

 

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

RankPitcherBadgesChange
1Shane BieberT1
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
2Gerrit Cole
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
3Yu Darvish
T2
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
4Trevor Bauer
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
5Max Scherzer
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+4
6Walker Buehler
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+2
7Brandon Woodruff
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+4
8Clayton Kershaw
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+2
9Corbin Burnes
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
+UR
10Aaron Nola
T3
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-4
11Jack Flaherty
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+3
12Lance Lynn
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
13Tyler Glasnow
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
-
14Lucas Giolito
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-7
15Zac Gallen
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
16Hyun Jin Ryu
T4
Aces Gonna Ace
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+UR
17Sonny Gray
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
+7
18Sandy Alcantara
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-
19Zack Wheeler
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+6
20Julio Urías
Aces Gonna Ace
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
-3
21Kevin Gausman
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
+6
22John Means
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+7
23Trevor Rogers
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Streaming Option
+5
24Dylan Bundy
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
-1
25Zach Plesac
T5
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+1
26Max Fried
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
+5
27Joe Musgrove
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
-6
28Lance McCullers Jr.
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
-6
29Blake Snell
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
-13
30Tyler Mahle
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
+3
31Pablo López
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Streaming Option
+3
32Carlos Rodón
Ace Potential
Streaming Option
+5
33Charlie Morton
T6
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-13
34José Berríos
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Cherry Bomb
-4
35Luis Castillo
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Cherry Bomb
-16
36Ian Anderson
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Ratio Focused
-
37Huascar Ynoa
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
+4
38Aaron Civale
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
-3
39Corey Kluber
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
-
40Kenta Maeda
T7
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
-2
41Jameson Taillon
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
+1
42Robbie Ray
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
+6
43Freddy Peralta
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
-3
44Frankie Montas
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Cherry Bomb
-1
45Zack Greinke
Ace Potential
Quality Starts
-13
46Danny Duffy
Quality Starts
Toby
Streaming Option
-1
47Marcus Stroman
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
-1
48Alex Wood
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Streaming Option
+2
49Andrew Heaney
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+3
50Sean Manaea
Injury Risk
Toby
Ratio Focused
+3
51José Urquidy
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
-7
52Zach Eflin
Ace Potential
Quality Starts
Streaming Option
+4
53Chris Bassitt
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Toby
Ratio Focused
+1
54Cristian Javier
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
-5
55Chris Paddack
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Playing Time Question
+UR
56Shohei Ohtani
T8
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
Stash Option
+1
57Shane McClanahan
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Stash Option
+1
58Dinelson Lamet
Ace Potential
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Stash Option
+UR
59Eduardo Rodriguez
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
-12
60Michael Pineda
T9
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
-1
61Kyle Gibson
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
+6
62JT Brubaker
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-1
63Dylan Cease
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
+13
64Yusei Kikuchi
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
-4
65Adbert Alzolay
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
+13
66Domingo Germán
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
-
67Patrick Corbin
T10
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
-2
68Kyle Hendricks
Ace Potential
Quality Starts
Ratio Focused
-13
69Garrett Richards
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+6
70Madison Bumgarner
Quality Starts
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-8
71Jordan Montgomery
Strikeout Upside
Toby
Ratio Focused
-8
72Anthony DeSclafani
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
+2
73Taijuan Walker
Quality Starts
Toby
Streaming Option
+8
74Brady Singer
Strikeout Upside
Quality Starts
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-5
75Triston McKenzie
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
-11
76Matthew Boyd
T11
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
+UR
77Rich Hill
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
+7
78Nathan Eovaldi
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
-27
79Wade Miley
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
+9
80Adam Wainwright
Quality Starts
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-12
81Dallas Keuchel
Quality Starts
Toby
Ratio Focused
-11
82Griffin Canning
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
-5
83Luis García
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Streaming Option
+17
84Tyler Anderson
T12
Toby
Streaming Option
+15
85Justin Dunn
Strikeout Upside
Streaming Option
-5
86Dane Dunning
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
Streaming Option
+5
87Germán Márquez
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
-15
88Cole Irvin
Toby
Streaming Option
+6
89Daniel Lynch IV
T13
Playing Time Question
Stash Option
-16
90Tarik Skubal
Ace Potential
Strikeout Upside
Low Ips
Playing Time Question
Stash Option
+UR
91Nate Pearson
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Stash Option
+UR
92Joe Ross
T14
Toby
Streaming Option
+UR
93Ryan Yarbrough
Strikeout Upside
Playing Time Question
Cherry Bomb
-7
94Matt Shoemaker
Toby
Streaming Option
+UR
95José Ureña
Quality Starts
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-3
96Steven Matz
Injury Risk
Strikeout Upside
Streaming Option
-25
97Kwang Hyun Kim
Quality Starts
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-14
98J.A. Happ
Toby
Ratio Focused
Streaming Option
-13
99Jon Gray
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
-10
100Nick Pivetta
Strikeout Upside
Cherry Bomb
-13

Labels Legend

Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question

Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

11 responses to “The List 5/10: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 7”

  1. Derenola says:

    I’m surprised no Patiño at 92. Elite stuff, ramping up his pitch count

  2. Mike Honcho says:

    If we’re assuming L. Castillo can be fixed, is an offer of R.Ray for him too much?
    Or will they end the year as ranked equally?

  3. Nubs says:

    Fyi – small bug with the tier line above Cole in the badges column. Guessing it has something to do with taking degrom out last minute.

    I’m on mobile chrome app fwiw

  4. Wes says:

    Dynasty league, I can keep Daniel Lynch for next year at $0, then +$3 every year after. Do I hold him or do I pickup Heaney who is the best available? I have a mixed, but deep bag: Nola, Berrios, Greinke, Kluber, Taillon, Ray, Wood, Lynch, Strasburg, Thor, Clevinger, Severino, Gore. H2H, standard 5 plus QS and Holds.

  5. Alex says:

    Any reason why when I do a Ctrl+F search on this site, my browser says I get multiple results but they all point to the same line of text? (Alzolay for example)

  6. larry womack says:

    T. Anderson should fair well vs SF as they are much better with a left handed lineup and not as solid on the road vs. lefties. I hope because he is on one of my teams

  7. AJ says:

    How much of Kluber’s ranking is his pre-injury track record, how much is Win-potential on the Yankees, and how much is his current ability/performance? He’s higher ranked here than any other FA in my league, but I don’t have Wins as a category, and I’m worried his post-injury stuff in *that* park.

  8. Harry says:

    Please don’t give Rogers the AGA label. I need him to keep being good.

  9. Tim says:

    Houser not even making the fringe list seems like an oversight.

  10. Alf says:

    As someone who has Snell, Castillo, and Morton…. this one hurts to see.

    It doesn’t hurt as much as my pitching stats so far… but it hurts nonetheless.

  11. B Mill says:

    Trying to determine which SP(s) to stash on IL for the stretch run… Doesn’t have to be Nick bc he’s a busy guy and yes I know there is a section on top saying where they WOULD be ranked; just looking for input in terms of potential ace impact upon return. Current availables (in order by my very unofficial, possibly incorrect, and quickly researched estimated returns) include:
    – Gonsolin (End May/ Early June), IL
    – F Valdez (End May/ Early June), IL
    – Sixto Sanchez (June call-up?), no IL
    – Luzardo (June?), IL
    – Soroka (Mid June?), IL
    – Thor (Mid June?), IL
    – Sale (End June?), IL
    – Severino (Mid July?), IL
    THANK YOU!!

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