The List 4/12: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 – Week 3

We’ve begun the weekly tradition here at Pitcher List where I rank the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 12:00pm EST as I live-stream its creation each week!

As always, make sure to read the notes as there are many changes that have good reasons behind them, and please consider that these ranks are based on a 12-teamer, 5×5 roto format. Adjust accordingly to your situation.

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• We’re about two starts in for most starters and it’s too early to shift around the Top 25 starters.
• …except for Corbin Burnes one spot. He’s been so dominant and it does look sustainable. The only reason he’s still hovering #20 is his questionable depth through the full year. Let’s hope the Brewers allow him to accrue more than 160 innings in 2021.

 

• I shifted Tier 3 into a larger grouping and did the same for Tier 4, pushing up Jose Berrios, Sandy Alcantara, and Lance McCullers. Each has made improvements this year (Berrios’ higher velocity, Alcantara’s command, McCullers’ slider) that should make them secure inside your rosters all season.
• Despite lower velocity from Stephen Strasburg, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt after just one start. Hopefully, he can ramp up the velocity as we keep setting and forgetting

 

• Starting Tier 5 is Patrick Corbin who certainly didn’t look like a sturdy ace in his debut start. However, it was the Dodgers after an extended break on the COVID-IL and was sitting a touch above his 2020 velocity. His drop is less about his own skills and more about the others advancing above and below him.
• While many were clamoring for Joe Musgrove to get a sizeable boost this week, it’ll be hard for Musgrove – and many inside of this tier – to jump up the ranks. There are simply too many aces with good track records to hurdle over.

 

• Sticking with Tier 5, I’ve elected to push John Means and Kevin Gausman into the Top 40. Means was able to succeed despite a pair of tough opponents, displaying his strong changeup of 2019 while improving his velocity in his second start. Get ready for an exciting two-start week. With Gausman, he recovered his fastball velocity in his second start back to the 2020 spike, quelling concerns I had about sustainability.
• Don’t be alarmed about the -2 for Pablo Lopez – I just wanted Joe Musgrove and Julio Urias to get some love.

 

• In Tier 6, Chris Paddack takes another fall. We’re two starts in and he hasn’t quite gotten up to speed with his four-seamer. There’s still time to recover against weak opponents and still worth your starts, but he may continue his descent if that fastball doesn’t show up.
• I know, I know, you’re concerned about Corey Kluber. In the preseason we talked about how we didn’t want to overreact to a poor April – he’s notorious for them! – but here we are, two starts in, and Kluber has been disappointing to say the least. His fastball is hovering 90 mph instead of 91/92 and while it’s far too early to throw in the towel, I can’t help but push him down a few knocks for his early struggles. Like Corbin and Paddack, he has a TIARA where the moment we see it all click, all our fears will go away. Here’s to that moment coming soon.

 

• Joining Tier 6 is, I know, I’m as shocked as you are, Trevor Rogers. I’ve intently watched his first two games and I’m incredibly impressed not only with his 96+ mph velocity, but the command of his fastballs and pairing them with changeups and sliders. This is the early pickup of the season and while there’s always a chance he’s off your team in the next few weeks, I’m willing to wager he sticks for the year.
• Ending the tier is Jordan Montgomery who disappointed against the Rays. Stick with him, he has the skills to be a solid add through the year, just not the same ceiling as Rogers.

 

• Tier 7 is when it starts to get a bit wild. Yes, I had to blow everything up and start from scratch, essentially, as we’re at the point where it’s a waiver-wire frenzy and guys are getting added and dropped without thought. Here we have some guys who could provide some stability, including Dustin May who still has a firm hold on the #5 spot in Dodgerville.
• Carlos Rodon isn’t the golden standard for stability, but his increased velocity and wonderful situation in Chicago make him a must-add. Let’s hope it sticks as he gets more innings.

 

• Jake Odorizzi and Eduardo Rodriguez make it back to The List this week as they returned to their rotations. Eduardo featured a solid changeup last time out and could be a rock through the year, while Odorizzi will join the team against the Tigers. Start Odorizzi, he’s been ramping up at the alternate site.
• Yusei Kikuchi also gets a bump after pitching well against the Twins. He’s in a good place and while there’s risk – get used to that word – he’s a fun one to chase right now.

 

• Tier 8 is a short one, essentially with solid Toby arms that you should be considering before the next tier of fun, wild, and chaos. Chris Bassitt gets the nod here despite poor underlying numbers in his first two outings. He had poor matchups and now gets to see the green pastures of Arizona and Detroit. Yes, I know Arizona has few of them, just go with the emotion.
• Zach Eflin takes a small tumble as his second start came without the curveball that propelled him in parts of 2020 and in his debut outing. It’s likely going to be a tumultuous ride with and without the pitch for the year ahead. Good luck.

 

• I’m not sure what to do with Shohei Ohtani. On one hand, he should be pitching this weekend and still carries immense strikeout upside. On the other, it’s a headache tracking his starts and his command needs a heavy dose of polish. The reward is worth the risk right now, but don’t hold on too tight if there are better options out there.
• Triston McKenzie returns today, but he gets the White Sox followed by the Reds and I wouldn’t start him for either one…and likely not the Yankees after that. BUT, then we can reap the rewards and enjoy his strong repertoire.
• I gave some love to Andrew Heaney who has been throwing harder early in the season. He’s still volatile, but he provides more production than those below, even when the longballs happen (WHIP and strikeouts are still a thing!).

 

• Entering Tier 10 is a slew of new names as those below are mostly arms who we chased early and have become questionable holds.  Taijuan Walker, Sean Manaea, Zach Davies (please find your changeup again), and Nathan Eovaldi aren’t as exciting as the others but could be solid ratio plays.
• Many newcomers are here as they can become speculative adds moving forward. Anthony DeSclafani gets the Marlins twice and could capitalize. Jose De Leon has earned plenty of whiffs on his sinkers and this may work. Dean Kremer has a great two-start week, Steven Matz has had a solid changeup to kick off the year, and we’re getting our first glimpse of Robbie Ray tonight after a spring showcasing more strikes than usual.

 

• Tier 11 is a touch like Tier 10, just without as much conviction. Carlos Martinez falls based on his lower velocity and few whiffs on sliders and changeups. Mike Minor also disappointed with a slower fastball and a worse changeup (and a poor schedule ahead). I’d love to see both of them rise up next week.
• Luke Weaver makes his season debut after his astounding performance against the Reds on Sunday. Unfortunately, it came without a third pitch, but his command of fastballs up and changeups down worked magic. It could be something that sticks.

 

• Tier 12 holds a ton of risk with arms that can be used for a stream or as a possible stash if they can put things together. Huascar Ynoa gets a two-start week after flashing improved velocity and a filthy slider and should be on your radar. Kyle Gibson also gets two reasonable starts and after dominating the Jays, he’s a decent option.
• I’ve elected to lower Adbert Alzolay as he seems a little too far away to trust in the short term. Please prove me wrong tonight.
• I’ve also added Rich Hill and Taylor Widener to The List. Hill was given a leash of six frames, while Widener has flashes with his fastball at 96 mph and slider diving away from bats.

 

• In the final tier, we have backup Tobys who I’d only consider for the right start. Bruce Zimmerman is the most intriguing of the lot after his BSB approach in his first outing. The second wasn’t as sharp, but it may return and he could be of value in the short term against the Marlins.

 

 

My rule for moving from the IL back to the rankings: If they are confirmed to return before the next edition of The List, then I will add them.

All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Jacob deGromT1	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
2	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
3	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
4	Yu Darvish T2	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
5	Lucas Giolito	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
6	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
7	Walker Buehler	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
8	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
9	Trevor Bauer	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb	-
10	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
11	Kenta Maeda T3	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
12	Luis Castillo	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
13	Jack Flaherty	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
14	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
15	Blake Snell	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside	-
16	Lance Lynn	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
17	Tyler Glasnow	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	-
18	Corbin Burnes	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+1
19	Zack Wheeler T4	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-1
20	Hyun Jin Ryu	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
21	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
22	Kyle Hendricks	Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
23	Zach Plesac	Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
24	Stephen Strasburg	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-
25	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-
26	José Berríos	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
27	Sandy Alcantara	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	+1
28	Lance McCullers Jr.	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips	+1
29	Patrick Corbin T5	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-3
30	Zack Greinke	Ace Potential Quality Starts	-
31	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside	-
32	Julio Urías	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
33	Joe Musgrove	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+1
34	Pablo López	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-2
35	Tyler Mahle	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-
36	Dylan Bundy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+2
37	Aaron Civale	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-1
38	Ian Anderson	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	-1
39	John Means	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+4
40	Kevin Gausman	Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused	+5
41	Frankie Montas T6	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	+1
42	Jameson Taillon	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-1
43	Corey Kluber	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Playing Time Question	-3
44	Chris Paddack	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts	-5
45	José Urquidy	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question	-1
46	Marcus Stroman	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused	-
47	Trevor Rogers	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+17
48	Jordan Montgomery	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option	+1
49	Dustin May T7	Ace Potential Low Ips Playing Time Question Ratio Focused	+9
50	Dallas Keuchel	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+3
51		Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+5
52	Carlos Rodón	Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+19
53	Jake Odorizzi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Streaming Option	+UR
54	Yusei Kikuchi	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+9
55	Eduardo Rodriguez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+UR
56	Chris Bassitt T8	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	+9
57	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts Toby	-3
58	Ryan Yarbrough	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+1
59	Zach Eflin	Ace Potential Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option	-9
60	Shohei Ohtani T9	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-13
61	Mitch Keller	Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+8
62	Triston McKenzie	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	-11
63	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	+4
64	Andrew Heaney	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+12
65	Matthew Boyd	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+3
66	Michael Pineda	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	-6
67	Taijuan Walker T10	Quality Starts Toby Streaming Option	+10
68	Sean Manaea	Injury Risk Ratio Focused	+11
69	Anthony DeSclafani	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+UR
70	José De León	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
71	Nathan Eovaldi	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+7
72	Zach Davies	Quality Starts Toby	-17
73	Logan Webb	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-7
74	Dean Kremer	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	+UR
75	Steven Matz	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
76	Robbie Ray	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+UR
77	Justin Dunn T11	Strikeout Upside Streaming Option	-2
78	Carlos Martínez	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-17
79	Dane Dunning	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+1
80	Tarik Skubal	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-10
81	Luke Weaver	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
82	Germán Márquez	Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	-9
83	Mike Minor	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused	-26
84	Griffin Canning T12	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+2
85	Wade Miley	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+4
86	Adbert Alzolay	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-12
87	Dylan Cease	Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb	+3
88	JT Brubaker	Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+4
89	Huascar Ynoa	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
90	Logan Allen	Playing Time Question Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	+5
91	Kyle Gibson	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option	+UR
92	Rich Hill	Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question	+UR
93	Taylor Widener	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Streaming Option	+UR
94	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb	+6
95	Casey Mize	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb	-2
96	Brady Singer T13	Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-14
97	Joey Lucchesi	Strikeout Upside Playing Time Question Cherry Bomb Toby Streaming Option	-
98	Bruce Zimmermann	Playing Time Question Toby Streaming Option	-10
99	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-1
100	Matt Shoemaker	Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option	-15

Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire – Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)