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We’ve got two slates on FantasyDraft tonight – the main slate covers 14 games and starts at 7pm eastern, and there’s a late slate at 8:40. The early Reds-Cubs matchup is not included on either slate.
Must Play SP: Rich Hill, TB ($18,900) vs SD
While Hill’s 25.% K-rate isn’t the dominant number we’ve seen out him before, it’s still a very strong mark for the season, and it gives him lots of upside for this start against the Padres. San Diego’s 24.0% K-rate versus lefties is the third-highest mark in the league, and they’ve also got a poor .303 wOBA. Hill should roll through this lineup, and the Dodgers lineup should give him the win against Brett Kennedy. At this price, he’s my favorite starter on the slate.
Honorable Mention: Mike Foltynewicz, ATL ($21,00) at MIA
Value SP: Zack Godley, ARI ($16,100) vs SEA
Godley had a nightmare start in his last time out, but he had been pitching well for at least a month before that outing. If you’re willing to chalk it up as a one-time thing, Godley is projected for another strong outing against the Mariners. Seattle is roughly a league-average lineup against righties, but Godley will be favored against them at home in Arizona, which has shifted to a pitcher’s park with the implementation of the humidor. Godley’s got a pretty high floor because of his ability to work deep into games and rack up strikeouts even if he gets hit around.
Honorable Mention: Gio Gonzalez, WAS ($12,700) at NYM
IF Matt Chapman, OAK ($8,100) at MIN (RHP Jake Odorizzi)
Chapman is simply too cheap for the kind of year he’s had against right-handed pitching. He’s got a 144 wRC+ and is an even more valuable fantasy bat when he’s away from Oakland, which is a pitcher’s park. Odorizzi has a 4.55 ERA and a 4.31 SIERA this season, so Chapman gets a fantastic matchup batting second against him. Continue rolling Chapman out in your lineups until his price adjusts.
Honorable Mention: IF Justin Turner, LAD ($8,600) vs SD (Richard)
OF Greg Allen, CLE ($7,600) at KC (RHP Brad Keller)
I don’t like that he bats down in the bottom of the Indians order, but you can’t argue with the production that Allen has had – he’s got an .878 OPS with six steals in the last month. Speed is often an underrated tool in daily formats, but Allen can score you lots of points on the basepaths. Royals starter Brad Keller has a poor 16.1% K-rate and an atrocious 5.46 Deserved Run Average, so using Allen in an Indians stack could pay off nicely.
Honorable Mention: OF Andrew McCutchen, PIT ($8,100) vs TEX (Hutchison)
Value: IF Mike Moustakas, MIL ($7,500) vs PIT (RHP Joe Musgrove)
Moustakas will be batting third in one of the best offensive environments in baseball, Miller Park. That alone makes him worth his price tonight – but it also helps that Joe Musgrove only has an 18.8% K-rate with a 4.15 SIERA. Moose has definitely been cold lately, but his low price represents a good buy low opportunity.
Honorable Mention: IF Devon Travis, TOR ($6,700) vs PHI (Arrieta)
Top Stack: Phillies at Blue Jays (LHP Ryan Borucki)
The Phillies have some cheap bats to grab tonight against Borucki, who has a 5.07 SIERA and a 4.85 DRA. Toronto’s hitter-friendly environment will play well for hitters like Rhys Hoskins ($8,600), Carlos Santana ($8,500), and Maikel Franco ($8,500).
Honorable Mention: Athletics at Twins (Odorizzi)