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#48 on The List is today’s must start!
11 Games- 7:05 PM ET
Must Play SP: Zack Godley, ARI ($16,800) @ SD
The Padres most successful hitter this week is Eric Hosmer, who is somehow sporting a 180 wRC+ while hitting over 57% of his batted balls on the ground. Beyond Hosmer and and Corey Spangenberg, there aren’t any hitters on the Pads that have been within 10% of league average in either direction. When you take a team struggling and put it up against Godley, who’s been rolling in his last four starts with a 2.36 ERA and 47.1% ground ball rate, more likely than not they’re going to struggle.
Honorable Mention: Rich Hill ($17,800)
Value SP: Matt Harvey, CIN ($12,900) vs. SF
The selection here is based more off of how bad the Giants have been offensively this week than it is believing Harvey’s looking like his 2015 self again. If you look at his last four starts, Harvey has not had luck on his side, but that’s not saying a lot when his xFIP is 4.91 in those games. Even though Harvey’s not super dependable, he could provide solid production against an offense who has an OBP and SLG differential of .004 since Monday (in case you’re wondering what the OPS is, it’s .472).
Honorable Mention: Clayton Richard ($10,300)
IF: Jurickson Profar, TEX ($8,900) vs. LAA (Andrew Heaney)
Heaney has the arsenal to dominate teams, as was evidenced by his back to back ten strikeout starts in early July, but of late he’s been a bit shaky. Profar hasn’t been super consistent of late either, as he’s hit for the virtual cycle in his last three games, but struggled so mightily in last weekend’s series that his wRC+ is 10% below average since last Friday. Over the course of the season though, Profar has hit lefties well, 26% better than he’s hit righties, so pairing his recent success with this penchant for hitting LHP should yield solid results.
Honorable Mention: Nicholas Castellanos ($8,700)
OF: Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS ($8,400) vs. TB (Tyler Glasnow)
If you can remember the first half of 2016, it appeared as if Bradley was breaking out. He had a walk rate of 10%, strikeout rate of 20%, and an OPS a bit over .900. If you look at his numbers for the second half of this season, they’re very similar to that first half from a couple years ago: 10% walk rate, 25% strikeout rate, and an OPS of .894. In the smaller sample size, which is where I tend to look for DFS, Bradley has reached base 45% of the time with a SLG of .778. Glasnow has looked really strong since moving to Tampa, but it’s still Tyler Glasnow.
Honorable Mention: Ronald Acuña Jr. ($11,400)
Value Hitter: Willy Adames, TB ($7,200) @ BOS (David Price)
Price is coming off of what is probably his best start of the season, but I think it needs to be taken with a grain of salt since it came against the Orioles. That isn’t to say Price is going to implode today, but Adames is a great value for somebody who’s sporting a 1.200 OPS over the last week. To be fair, most of the slugging came in last weekend’s series, as he’s batting .182 in the last four games, but his OBP is still over .400 despite the low average.
Honorable Mention: Ian Desmond ($6,800)
Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies (Antonio Senzatela)
The rest of the Braves have been overshadowed by Acuña and his six homers in eight games (and also the Ureña controversy that came as a result), but there’s still four of them who have been performing at least 15% better than league average. Johan Camargo and Charlie Culberson have both been mashing the ball, and while $8,500 and $8,900 isn’t all that cheap, there’s been a lot of money saved on pitching if you go with Godley as your #1. With it being Senzatela’s first start off the DL, it should bode well for the Braves at their favorite launching pad.
Honorable Mention: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers