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Tuesday evening’s 15-game slate includes the second leg of a doubleheader between the White Sox and Tigers. While the number of quality starting pitchers is limited, a few stand out as top plays at fair prices. Plenty of value is also present on the offensive end.
Top SP: Zack Greinke ($9,800) vs. COL
If Aaron Sanchez can throw six no-hit innings immediately after joining the Astros, that means Greinke should allow … carries the one … negative-five hits with 19 strikeouts. In all seriousness, Greinke is generously priced for a reliable ace touting a 2.90 ERA. He has even picked up the strikeout pace, amassing 48 in his past seven turns. He’ll return to the AL for the first time since 2010 just to face a familiar NL West foe. The 35-year-old righty has garnered a 3.12 ERA in four starts this season against the Rockies, who have registered a 71 wRC+ away from Coors Field. The price is so good that I’d play him ahead of Zack Wheeler against the Marlins in cash contests. Heck, playing both is feasible given the cheap hitting value available.
Honorable Mention: Zack Wheeler ($10,600) vs. MIA
Value SP: Anibal Sanchez, WAS ($8,000) at SF
Asher Wojciechowski against the ghost of the Yankees’ lineup past is an awfully tempting play at $6,600, but I’m too big a coward to deploy him over Anibal Sanchez in cash contests. Risk-tolerant gamers should feel free to chase the strikeout upside while saving a few bucks. Only the Tigers have a worse wRC+ at home than the Giants’ 74 at Oracle Park. Sanchez has also displayed a commendably high floor. Since returning from the IL in late May, he has posted a 2.94 ERA with eight quality starts in 11 outings. He has only permitted more than three runs against the Braves (four runs twice) during that span.
DraftKings has routinely under-priced Machado, who’s batting .296/.349/.582 since the start of June. More pertinent to Tuesday night’s outlook, San Diego’s star signee has torched southpaws to a 233 wRC+ in 97 plate appearances. This small-sample success has not caused a cost uptick against LeBlanc, who has ceded a 5.17 ERA and 5.36 FIP this season. Seattle’s lefty has served up 19 home runs in just 87 innings, so Machado deserves a price tag closer to $5,400 for this juicy matchup. DraftKings also continues to make him eligible at shortstop despite his last start there occurring on June 15. Teammate Hunter Renfroe makes a fine pairing at the same price.
This honor could have just as easily gone to Eugenio Suarez, but Senzel is $500 cheaper and likely to lead off against Los Angeles’ Suarez. He’s a .338/.381/.597 hitter against lefties about to tee off against a southpaw who has surrendered a .321/.398/.578 slash line to righties. Senzel also hasn’t homered since June 21, hence the discount despite favorable circumstances.
Value Bat: OF Nicholas Castellanos, CHC ($3,700) vs. OAK (LHP Brett Anderson)
Regardless of his uniform, Castellanos has always crushed lefties. The career .301/.355/.515 hitter against southpaws has feasted to a 169 wRC+ in the split this season. He’s batted second since joining the Cubs, making Tuesday night’s $3,700 fare a terrific going rate. While Anderson has managed a solid 4.04 ERA, a minuscule 12.0% strikeout rate and 5.26 SIERA still leaves Oakland’s lefty a vulnerable target. Chicago acquired Castellanos precisely for these moments.
Lineup Stack: White Sox at Tigers (RHP Drew VerHagen)
This pick comes with an asterisk, as the White Sox’s players are probably so generously priced because of the doubleheader creating playing time concerns. The stack could turn into simply using one or two guys starting the nightcap, or perhaps it just leads to even better bargains that open the door to a Greinke-Wheeler combination. Aim for as much exposure as possible, as VerHagen has surrendered 26 hits, 15 walks and 19 earned runs in 14.2 innings for the Tigers. He has allowed 11 runs in two starts since joining the rotation.
Lefties have hit .436/.532/.692 off VarHagen, so Jon Jay and Ryan Goins each make intriguing punt plays at $3,100. Yet the real fun falls on the other side of the plate. Jose Abreu has gone cold, with just one extra-base hit in his last 11 games, but only Mike Trout and Christian Yelich have tallied more barrels than his 48 this season. This is a golden matchup for the slumping first baseman to heat up and the right price ($3,800) to bet on the bounce-back performance. The same logic applies to Eloy Jimenez. While the rookie hasn’t lived up to the immense expectations, his prestigious power still makes him a threat to go yard any night. He’s slugging .485 against fellow righties, as of Monday, and is $100 cheaper than Abreu. Tim Anderson is also kicking into high gear with three doubles and a home run in his last four games. His admission fee ($4,200) hasn’t risen back to its peak just yet.
Honorable Mentions: Cubs vs. Athletics (Anderson); Padres at Mariners (LeBlanc); Reds vs. Angels (Suarez).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is akgould4) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.
Graphic by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter).