Pitcher List is proud to partner with DraftKings for the 2019 season. We’ll be featuring our top picks for every daily slate through the season and feature articles dedicated to the GPP.
Top Play SP: Shane Bieber, CLE ($11,800) vs MIN
It’s not an ideal opponent in the Twins (.342 team wOBA, 113 wRC+) but Shane Bieber is miles ahead of the field today as his 26.2% K-BB% will attest. At a distant 2nd is Max Fried at 18.5%. So we can see that options at the top are a little thin. Bieber provides an excellent K floor every time he goes out and he goes deep into games too, managing to pass the 110 pitch plateau in three of his last four starts.
He has nowhere near the strikeout ability of Bieber but Jose Quintana (14.6% K-BB%, 4.49 SIERA) is another arm worth mentioning if you’re looking to save some salary. The Pirates have been a really dreadful offense against LHP (.289 team wOBA, 76 wRC+ vs LHP) and if they sit Starling Marte and Josh Bell again today there’s no reason why Quintana can’t put together a nice line here.
Honorable mentions: Quintana, CHC ($9,600) vs. PIT (Trevor Williams).
Value SP: Asher Wojciechowski, BAL ($5,500) at DET
After an eye-popping start against the Red Sox back in July that saw him punch out ten across seven innings (32.4% CSW) Asher Wojciechowski has not surprisingly settled back down. Overall he hasn’t been too great with a 4.81 SIERA and 14.6% K-BB% but he has shown some reasonable swing and miss ability with a 23.1% K rate (27.4% CSW). The Tigers as we all know are a spot to attack as their 30.1% CSW rate is 2nd trailing only the Marlins at 30.3%. The Orioles are also a pretty reasonable road favorite here (-130) which has been needless to say a very rare occurrence this year. Woj has shown an alarming affinity for barrels (11.9%) which is never a good thing but given the rock-bottom price and matchup against the Tigers he looks like a plenty reasonable play.
Top Play: 1B/OF Trey Mancini, BAL ($4,600) at DET
You have to hand it to Edwin Jackson. The man has been pitching at the Major League level since 2003 which is a remarkable feat in its own right. Longevity aside though, Jackson has just been simply murdered by hitters from both sides of the plate. He’s allowed a .474 wOBA and .357 ISO (!!!) to opposing RHB. This looks like an optimal time to target Trey Mancini (.357 wOBA, 122 wRC+ vs RHP). Jackson has managed to be almost as awful against LHB too allowing a .434 wOBA and .322 ISO. So don’t be shy in targetting O’s bats here as there could be some potentially decent value here. Leadoff man Jonathan Villar (.343 wOBA, 112 wRC+ vs RHP) looks like another excellent play too.
Top Play: 1B Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4,200) vs PIT
This is just too cheap of a price for Anthony Rizzo (.397 wOBA, 146 wRC+ vs RHP in 2019). He’ll get Trevor Williams today who has been hit hard by regression this year sporting an ERA of 5.21 as opposed to last year’s 3.11. It’s not incredibly surprising considering his well below-average K rate of 17.8%. The key thing here though is that he’s coughed up a .390 wOBA and .219 ISO to LHB. Nice advantage to Rizzo who should be in the lineup as the Cubs continue their quest to secure the 2nd N.L. Wildcard.
Value: 1B Rhys Hoskins, PHI ($4,000) vs. BOS
Rhys Hoskins‘ production has totally cratered in the second half but this is an interesting buyback spot against an infinitely hittable pitcher in Rick Porcello (11.3% K-BB%, 5.07 SIERA) who has coughed up 30 home runs this year (.338 xWOBA, 10% barrel rate). At this price I’m definitely interested. The Phillies have a solid implied total, just shy of five and a half runs.
Honorable mentions: OF Trent Grisham ($3,800) at STL (Wacha); OF Anthony Santander ($3,800) at DET (Jackson); 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,700) vs. NYY (Montgomery); OF Christin Stewart ($3,600) vs BAL (Wojciechowski); Franmil Reyes ($3,800) vs. MIN (Dobnak); SS Nico Hoerner ($2,900)vs PIT (Williams); OF Yasiel Puig ($3,900) vs MIN (Dobnak).
Top Stack: CHC vs PIT (Williams)
The Yankees get a really nice matchup against T.J. Zeuch (0% K-BB%, 5.77 SIERA) but they have been liberally resting players as they cruise to the finish line so that has made them a pesky team to target lately. Another team worth mentioning here are the Indians. Jose Berrios, today’s originally scheduled starter, was pushed back a day. The Indians will instead be facing Randy Dobnak who will be an opener here. Point being this is a definite matchup upgrade to bats like Carlos Santana ($4,200), Franmil Reyes ($3,800), and Yasiel Puig ($3,900) who now look like very solid values.
For today’s top stack though we’ll go with the Cubs who have every reason to play their regulars as they look to lock up the last N.L. Wildcard. Williams has struggled this year with a modest 11.3% K-BB% and 5.01 SIERA. More importantly, he’ll face a dangerous Cubs team. Below you’ll see a quick look at their projected lineup and the wOBA and wRC+ they’ve posted the past two years.
|Anthony Rizzo 1B||$4,200||.371||131|
|Nick Castellanos OF||$4,300||.360||125|
|Kris Bryant 3B/OF||$4,500||.369||129|
|Kyle Schwarber OF||$4,200||.342||112|
|Willson Contreras C||$4,500||.346||115|
|Jason Heyward OF||$4,100||.327||102|
|Ben Zobrist 2B/OF||$3,200||.341||113|
|Nico Hoerner SS||$2,900||–||–|
As mentioned earlier, Williams has struggled more so with LHB allowing .390 wOBA to opposite handed hitters. Though, the righties here are certainly in play as he’s ceded an ISO north of .200 to hitters from both sides of the plate. Don’t forget about Nico Hoerner as a potential value play, though he’ll likely be buried in the lineup he’s the Cubs #1 prospect (.342 wOBA, 117 wRC+ in AA) whose been pressed into service with the loss of Javier Baez. Also keep an eye out on the weather at Wrigley Field, as of now there could be some favorable winds blowing out which could provide an added boost to the power upside here.
Honorable mentions: NYY at TOR (Zeuch); BAL at DET (Jackson); PHI vs BOS (Porcello); CLE vs MIN (Dobnak).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.