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Top Play SP: Sonny Gray, CIN ($10,600) at SEA
Sonny Gray has been unstoppable over the past month, striking out 37 batters in 29.2 innings with a 1.21 ERA and four quality starts. He’s now got an outstanding 2.75 ERA on the year with a 28.5% strikeout rate, so he should be able to rack up strikeouts against a Mariners lineup that has a high 25.5% strikeout rate against righties. Seattle has been well below average versus right-handers, with a .312 wOBA, and Gray gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly environment. With Stephen Strasburg and Robbie Ray both facing tough matchups, Gray should be tonight’s priority at starting pitcher.
Value SP: Pablo Lopez, MIA ($8,400) vs. MIL
After the unfortunate injury to Christian Yelich, the Brewers are a lineup to consider streaming against when they’re on the road as they’ve already got a subpar .315 wOBA away from home. They’ve also got a 25% strikeout rate against righties, so Pablo Lopez is in an attractive spot in an extreme pitcher’s park. Lopez has a stellar 2.68 ERA at home and represents the last of the respectable options at starting pitcher—if you’re rolling with anybody cheaper, you’re going to have to take a big risk.
Honorable mention: Steven Matz, NYM ($8,500) vs. ARI.
Top Play: OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS ($4,000) vs. KC
Eloy Jimenez displayed his tournament upside last night with a grand slam, and he can easily go deep again tonight against Glenn Sparkman, owner of a 2.07 HR/9. Jimenez is batting .310 with an .879 OPS over the past two weeks and should definitely be targeted in GPPs at this price. The White Sox should put a beating on Sparkman and his atrocious 5.97 ERA.
Top Play: SS Corey Seager, LAD ($4,300) at BAL
Corey Seager wasted no time in beating up on Orioles pitching by hitting two homers last night, and he now has three dingers in his past two games. Baltimore is a hitter’s park, and it’s hard to argue against the Orioles as the league’s weakest pitching staff. Most Dodgers bats are too expensive to realistically consider, but you can fit Seager into any lineup at this price.
Value: Randal Grichuk, TOR ($3,700) vs. BOS
Randal Grichuk has been much better against left-handed pitching this season, with an OPS more than 60 points higher than his mark against righties. He is a value option to consider against a weak lefty in Bobby Poyner, who has allowed seven earned runs in six innings this year. Grichuk should be avoided in cash games for his low-OBP profile but can be rolled out in GPPs for a chance at some extra-base hits in a hitter’s park at home.
Top Stack: Cardinals at Rockies
Even after scoring just one run last night, the Cardinals are an obvious play in the league’s ultimate run-scoring environment in Colorado. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has a remarkable 7.19 ERA in 102.2 innings, so anybody in the Cardinals lineup should be considered against him. Top high-end plays include Marcell Ozuna ($4,900) and Paul Goldschmidt ($5,100), while cheaper plays in Dexter Fowler ($4,500) and Harrison Bader ($3,900) are worth looks as well.
Honorable mentions: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox (Poyner); White Sox vs. Royals (Sparkman).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is troyklauder) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.