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Top SP: Gerrit Cole ($11,900) vs. COL
Cole is by far the most expensive pitcher on Wednesday, but he’s well worth the price. Cole is in his own tier on today’s pitching slate, as he’s leading all of baseball in strikeouts (216) and tied for the lead quality starts (19). He also gets an extremely weak opponent in the Rockies, who have just a .284 wOBA on the road this year, which is second-lowest in the league. Their 27.3% strikeout rate is also second-highest, as if Cole needed any help getting strikeouts in the first place. It is very difficult to fade Cole in any contest with this matchup.
Honorable mention: James Paxton ($9,000) at BAL.
Value SP: Steven Matz, NYM ($7,800) vs. MIA
It’s tough to argue against using any pitcher when he’s facing the Marlins, as the team has just a .285 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. Matz got blown up in his last start but has been impressive since rejoining the rotation, with a 3.57 ERA and two quality starts—one of them being a complete-game shutout. He’s a fringe option in most scenarios, but a date with Miami makes Matz an easy start at this price.
Chapman has been obliterating southpaws this year, with a 152 wRC+. While he’s been slumping hard lately, Chapman has career-bests in walk rate (11.2%) and strikeout rate (20.7%) this season. He’s worth buying low in this matchup against a lefty in Quintana, who has a 4.68 SIERA. Chapman is in a position to rack up counting stats batting second for the A’s, and he will be in an offense-friendly environment with the wind blowing out in Wrigley.
Renfroe is another splits guy of whom we can take advantage as he’s already got 11 home runs versus lefties with a 1.031 OPS and just a 19.4% strikeout rate. He’s particularly attractive in GPP contests for his home run upside, but Renfroe can easily be deployed in any contest at this price. Opposing starter Yusei Kikuchi has a 2.14 HR/9 with a 5.49 ERA, and Renfroe gets to face him away from his pitcher-friendly home park. There’s a lot going for him in this one.
Value Bat: OF Nicholas Castellanos, CHC ($3,700) vs OAK ($4,000)
Castellanos found new value thanks to the trade deadline, as he’s now in a spot where he can score plenty of runs as the Cubs’ No. 2 hitter. He’s batting .400 since joining his new club a week ago and should be able to do some damage against Homer Bailey, owner of a 5.20 ERA. Consider him in cash games for his high floor, low ceiling profile.
Lineup Stack: White Sox at Tigers (LHP Tyler Alexander)
Tigers starter Tyler Alexander has a 4.50 ERA in four major league starts, including eight earned runs and 18 hits in his past two. The White Sox have plenty of affordable bats to use against him, including lefty-masher Jose Abreu ($4,000), who is batting .333 against lefties and has lots of power ability. Eloy Jimenez ($3,700) is another homer potential play to consider in GPPs, while Tim Anderson ($4,300) is in a valuable spot batting second. The Sox are a strong unit that you can actually pay for.
Honorable mentions: Athletics at Cubs (Quintana); Red Sox vs. Royals (RHP Glenn Sparkman).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is troyklauder) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter).