DraftKings Plays of the Day—7/29

Rich Holman previews the July 29 slate on DraftKings with his must-plays and best values of the day.

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Top Play SP: Sonny Gray, CIN ($9,400) vs. PIT

 

Today’s pitching options are interesting. There are no big-time aces on the slate, and the two highest-priced pitching options, Patrick Corbin and Caleb Smith, face really tough offenses in the Braves and Diamondbacks, respectively. So I’m looking at Sonny Gray as my SP1. Gray’s 3.17 pCRA is the best of our options; however, we all know the Pirates lack the strikeout upside that we’re looking for. This is definitely a cash-game play, as in tournaments, I’d be going to the high-strikeout guys in Smith and Corbin.

Honorable mention: Chris Paddack, SDP ($10,200) vs. BAL.

 

Value SP: Jaime Barria, LAA ($7,200) vs. DET

 

Here’s our weekly “OK, fine, I guess play this guy” pick. Jaime Barria is not a fantastic pitcher. His 4.38 pCRA is one of the best of the cheaper options outside of the Coors pitchers, and his matchup against the Tigers has strikeout upside, as they strike out at the highest rate in the league against right-handed pitching. That’s literally what swung me to Barria as opposed to Merrill Kelly against the Marlins.

Honorable mention: Merrill Kelly, ARI ($8,200) at MIA.

 

Top Play: OF David Dahl, COL ($4,800) vs. LAD

 

You know we have to try and squeeze in some bats anytime Coors is on the slate. If you have the ability to get up to the big bats, of course, I want you to do that. However, I don’t think anyone needs me to give analysis as to why you should play Charlie Blackmon in Coors against a righty. Let’s talk about David Dahl then. Dahl’s put up a .223 ISO and .372 wOBA against righties this year and is reasonably affordable at this price.

Honorable mention: OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA ($5,200) vs. DET; OF Alex Verdugo, LAD ($4,500) at COL; OF Juan Soto, WAS ($4,300) vs. ATL.

 

Top Play: SS Corey Seager, LAD ($4,700) at COL

 

This is pretty much along the same lines as Dahl. I would love to get in on Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy, but they’re priced through the roof. Corey Seager, on the other hand, offers up a reasonable option that still carries a nice amount of upside. Seager has a .220 ISO and .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching while striking out just 14.7% of the time. That means he’s walking or putting the ball in play 86.3% of the time in Coors, where the park factor for runs scored is massive.

Honorable mention: 3B Anthony Rendon, WAS ($4,900) vs. ATL; 2B/OF Whit Merrifield, KCR ($4,900) vs. TOR.

 

Value: 1B/3B Cheslor Cuthbert, KCR ($3,800) vs. TOR

 

Luckily for us, there’s a decent amount of cheaper options that come with upside on today’s slate. Cheslor Cuthbert has some awesome upside against left-handed pitching. In 45 plate appearances, he has a .295 ISO and .400 wOBA against southpaws and faces a super mediocre lefty in Thomas Pannone. Pannone has the worst pCRA on the slate (worse than Jordan Zimmermann) and has allowed a 42.7% hard-hit rate against righties.

Honorable mention: OF Justin Upton, LAA ($4,000) vs. DET; 2B Brian Dozier, WAS ($3,400) vs. ATL; 3B/OF David Fletcher, LAA ($4,100) vs. DET. 

 

Top Stack: Angels vs Tigers (RHP Jordan Zimmermann)

 

I’ll be doing everything in my power to get Mike Trout ($5,700) into my lineup. The Angels get the matchup of the night against Jordan Zimmermann and his 5.00 pCRA. Zimmerman has a 15.2% strikeout rate, one of the lowest on today’s slate, and that is not going to fair well against the team that strikes out at the second-lowest rate against right-handed pitching. I’ll be starting my stack with Trout and then will attempt to fit in Shohei Ohtani ($5,200), Justin Upton ($4,000), David Fletcher ($4,100), Andrelton Simmons ($3,700), and Kole Calhoun ($4,600). Good luck today.

Honorable mention: Rockies vs. Dodgers (RHP Kenta Maeda); Dodgers at Rockies (RHP Jon Gray).

 

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.      

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

  • Avatar SK says:

    What is “pCRA” and where can I find it?

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