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Top Play SP: Patrick Corbin, WAS ($11,500) vs. MIA
Yesterday, the Marlins offense exploded for 10 runs, tied for the most they’ve put up in a game all season, but today, we’re in attack mode with them. That’s due to Patrick Corbin being a much better pitcher than Kyle McGowin (I know, super low bar). Corbin on the year has an elite 29.2% strikeout rate and faces the Marlins who have the lowest ISO and wOBA against left-handed pitching. Simply based on this matchup, I’m locking in Patrick Corbin as my SP1.
Honorable mention: Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD ($11,200) @ PIT.
Value SP: Kyle Gibson, MIN ($8,500) vs. CHW
The White Sox started off decent enough against right-handed pitching, ranking in the top third of the league in wRC+ in April. However, over the last 30 days, they’ve really fallen off. Since April 21st, the White Sox rank just 22nd in wRC+ and have the second-worst strikeout rate at 27.3%. The White Sox face Kyle Gibson today, who’s been a Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde pretty much all of his career. Sometimes he’ll look absolutely elite and two starts later, he burns down your home. This year, Gibson has made some significant improvements, increasing his first-pitch strike rate to 68.3% (57.6% in 2018), which has led to him walking fewer batters. Getting ahead of batters has also led to a small bump up in his strikeout rate. I’m hoping we can count on a Mr. Hyde start today for Gibson as our SP2.
Honorable mention: Taylor Clarke, ARI ($7,700) at SFG, Tyler Skaggs, LAA ($7,300) vs. TEX.
Top Play: OF Nick Castellanos, DET ($3,900) at NYM
This just isn’t really fair. Getting a batter of Nick Castellanos’s abilities at this price in an amazing matchup is just, well, a top play. Castellanos gets an elite matchup against Jason Vargas, who’s allowed a 57.5% hard-hit rate, while just striking out 17.9% of batters. Castellanos mashes lefties, putting up a .308 ISO and .495 wOBA to go along with his 63.6% (WHAT?!?!?!?!?) hard-hit rate. I’m almost a little sad at this price, because Castellanos will probably be 40.2% owned, but that’s chalk that I’ll eat all day long.
Honorable mention: OF Bryce Harper, PHI ($4,900) at MIL, OF David Dahl, BAL ($4,400) vs. BAL.
Top Play: 2B/OF Whit Merrifield, KCR ($4,800) vs. NYY
The Royals and Whit Merrifield play a double-header today, so I feel the need to specify, this pick is geared towards the game against J.A. Happ. It pains me to write bad things about Mr. Happ, as I was a big fan of his coming into the year, but the truth is, he’s struggled. Happ’s allowed a .373 wOBA to right-handed batters and as chance may have it, Whit Merrifield is a righty that absolutely destroys left-handed pitching, sporting a .371 wOBA against lefties for his career.
Honorable mention: 1B Peter Alonso, NYM ($5,300) vs. DET, 2B/SS Jonathan Villar, BAL ($4,700) at COL.
Value: Kyle Schwarber, CHC ($4,000) vs. CIN
Kyle Schwarber’s on a heater, so it’s time to get on board and ride the wave until it ends. Schwarber has been leading off for the Cubs as of late and gets a matchup against Tyler Mahle today. Mahle has been pretty decent to start the year, but has a soft spot in his heart for left-handed hitters, allowing a .218 ISO and .369 wOBA to go along with a 44.3% hard-hit rate. I love getting a leadoff hitter in a decent spot at this price.
Honorable mention: SS Amed Rosario, NYM ($4,000) vs. DET, 1B Matthew Beaty, LAD ($3,200) at PIT, 3B/SS Manny Machado, SDP ($4,200) at TOR.
Top Stack: Tigers at Mets (LHP Jason Vargas)
This is it, the moment we’ve all been waiting for. Time to stack up the Tigers. Over the last 30 days, the Tigers have the fourth best ISO against left-handed pitchers and today they get the perfect matchup against Jason Vargas. The Tigers primary weakness, the strikeout (26.3%), is relatively nullified by Vargas’s 17.0% K% to right-handed batters. Vargas has also allowed ALL of the hard contact (59.6%) to righties along with a 41.1% fly ball rate. But wait, there’s more; the wind in today’s game is forecasted to be blowing out to center field at 12 miles per hour. I already mentioned that Nick Castellanos at my favorite outfielder today, but Miguel Cabrera ($3,500), Ronny Rodriguez ($4,300), and John Hicks ($3,300) also have excellent numbers against left-handed pitching and their prices allow you to get a second higher priced stack or to pay up at your SP2. Good luck today.
Honorable mention: Twins vs. White Sox (LHP Manny Banuelos).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.