DraftKings Plays of the Day — 5/11
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Top Play SP: Jacob deGrom, NYM ($11,000) vs. MIA
Today’s slate features high-end aces, Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer, and Jacob deGrom. Scherzer has a tough matchup with the Dodgers, and while he’s fully capable of dominating, it’s certainly the riskiest spot. Bauer, I listed below as an honorable mention because he’s just a little more expensive and has a tougher matchup than my number one, Jacob deGrom. deGrom gets the matchup of the day against the Marlins. The Marlins are dead last in ISO and wOBA versus right-handed pitching and strike out at the third highest rate of 26.8%. deGrom’s a lock for my cash lineup today, while I view Scherzer and deGrom as excellent pivots in GPPs, where they’ll garner less ownership than deGrom.
Value SP: Jeff Samardzija, SFG ($8,000) vs. CIN
As is the norm with our value plays, this is certainly not without risk. Jeff Samardzija seems to be putting his 2018 disaster season behind him. While he’s had some bumps along the way this year, he’s been very good in Oracle Park, which is where we get him today. In three starts, he’s allowed just three earned runs, while striking out 12 in 16.2 innings. Loose Lips faces the Reds today, who have the league’s third-worst wOBA and tenth worst strike-out rate against right-handed pitching.
Top Play: OF Ian Desmond, COL ($4,300) vs. SDP
Of course, Mike Trout is always the top outfielder, especially on a day when he faces Dylan Bundy, but you don’t need me to tell you to play Mike Trout. How about calling Ian Desmond a must play? When Coors is in the slate, I always want to try and get a piece, and today, Desmond allows me to do that at a reasonable price. Desmond has crushed lefties so far this year, sporting a .350 ISO and .390 wOBA with only a 15.6% strike-out rate. The Rockies face Joey Lucchesi today, who’s been a little disappointing to those that pegged him as a potential breakout candidate. He’s allowed a .369 wOBA to right-handed batters this year, so that combo leads me to lock Desmond into my lineup today.
Honorable mention: OF Michael Conforto, NYM ($4,500) vs. MIA, OF Andrew McCutchen, PHI ($4,400) @ KCR
Top Play: C J.T. Realmuto, PHI ($4,200) @ KCR
It’s a pretty rare day when I pay-up at catcher, but if you get the opportunity, I feel like it gives you an immediate leg up on people punting the position. Here’s a fun knowledge drop, J.T. Realmuto has been better against right-handed pitching than lefties for his career. That split has gotten even larger over the last two years. Since the start of 2018, Realmuto has a .205 ISO and .371 wOBA against righties versus just a .163 ISO and .282 wOBA against lefties. Today, Realmuto faces Brad Keller, who’s currently sporting reverse splits, allowing a .228 ISO and .366 wOBA to right-handed batters.
Honorable mention: 1B/3B Max Muncy, LAD ($4,300) vs. ATL, 2B/SS Jonathan Villar, BAL ($4,600) vs. BOS.
Value: 1B Carlos Santana, CLE ($4,000) @ OAK
The Indians lineup has been rough to start the season, but Carlos Santana has been one of the bright spots. He’s sporting a .358 wOBA against righties to go along with a 43.3% hard-hit rate. The Indians face Aaron Brooks today, who is allowing a 41.4% hard-hit rate while striking out only 18.7% of batters. That’s not a great combination and against left-handed batters, he’s allowing a .233 ISO and .352 wOBA for the season. I really like the Indians as a cheap secondary stack today.
Honorable mention: OF Randall Grichuk, TOR ($4,000) vs. CHW, 3B Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., TOR ($3,900) vs. CHW, 2B Robinson Cano, NYM ($3,500) vs. MIA.
Top Stack: Blue Jays @ White Sox (RHP Ivan Nova)
Overall, this is a really interesting slate. As of this writing, there are nine teams with an implied run total over five runs. So if you can afford the Red Sox or Rockies, by all means, do it up, but for me, who is starting by paying up for deGrom, I’m going to be looking to the Blue Jays for a value stack. The only bat in the projected lineup greater than $4,200 is Eric Sogard ($4,800), but I’m happy to go to Justin Smoak ($4,200), Rowdy Tellez ($3,900), Vlad Guerrero, Jr. ($3,900), and Randall Grichuk ($4,000).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.