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Top SP: Shane Bieber, CLE ($11,000 DK, $11,800 FD) vs MIL
Shane Bieber leads all qualified starters with a 35.9% K-BB%. Second is Jacob deGrom at 30.6%. Simply put, the Indians’ ace is having a remarkable season. And this afternoon he gets a date with a Brewers offense that is striking out at an alarmingly awful 27.3% clip against RHP, adding to Bieber’s already substantial upside. The Indians are the biggest favorites on the board currently at -242.
You have to admire what deGrom has done this season as he seemingly continues to improve. This year, he’s added velocity to his heater and it’s averaging a stunning 98.4 MPH while earning whiffs at a 38.3% clip. His swinging strike rate sits at 20.6%, first place among qualified starters. Second is Bieber at 17.7%. Despite the fastball velocity increase, we haven’t quite seen deGrom post a huge ceiling game yet, which makes him a great alternative in tournaments. The Phillies have, however, been a stiffer opponent, striking out as a team at just a 20.4% rate against RHP.
Honorable Mentions: Jacob deGrom, NYM ($10,500 DK, $11,500 FD) vs PHI.
Value SP: Tyler Glasnow, TB ($8,700 DK, $10,100 FD) vs MIA
Rich Hill might be a tempting target considering the price and a date against the Tigers, but the veteran lefty has not looked anything like his vintage Dodger self this year as his K rate sits at an ugly 14.7%, which is also equal to his walk rate. Not great. A likely low pitch count, 68 his last time out, doesn’t add to the appeal either. Maybe he skates by against the Tigers, but I’d be looking elsewhere given his struggles this year.
Tyler Glasnow looks like an excellent value today particularly on DraftKings. The former Pirate has been fantastic this year posting a K rate just under 40%. And he gets the Marlins who have the fifth-highest team K rate against RHP at 25.7%. Glasnow checks all the proverbial boxes today as the Rays are huge home favorites (-225), while the visiting Marlins have the second-lowest implied team total at just over three runs. And considering that his price seems slow to adjust to his two excellent recent performances, he figures to be a very popular play and with good reason.
Honorable Mention: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY ($7,600 DK, $8,500 FD) at BAL.
SS Gleyber Torres, NYY ($4,500 DK, $2,700 FD) at BAL
Going by the projections over at FTN we shouldn’t hesitate to go back to the Yankees again today despite them being nearly shut out last night by Keegan Akin and the Orioles. The main appeal here is taking advantage of a deflated price tag for Gleyber Torres due to his lack of production so far this year. Hitting third for a team that’s currently projected to score over five and a half runs, Torres provides substantial upside at a very reasonable salary. As of this writing, the Orioles have yet to announce an official starter.
Honorable Mentions: Eloy Jiménez, OF ($4,700 DK, $3,400 FD) at KC; Luke Voit, 1B ($4,900 DK, $3,900 FD) at BAL; Franmil Reyes, OF ($4,000 DK, $3,100 FD) vs MIL; Xander Bogaerts, SS ($5,100 DK, $3,600 FD) vs TOR.
OF J.D. Martinez, BOS ($5,100 DK, $3,200 FD) vs TOR
Today’s game at Fenway figures to be a slugfest once again and on both sides with the Red Sox sending out Andrew Triggs who has not started a game since 2018 with the Athletics. The Blue Jays will be sending out the recently acquired Robbie Ray. This will be the lefty Ray’s first start (second appearance) for the Blue Jays. To say that he has struggled so far this year would be a profound understatement as Ray has managed to carry a 20.1% walk rate along with an ugly 14.6% barrel rate and .398 xwOBA. Meanwhile, J.D. Martinez owns a career .412 wOBA against southpaws.
Honorable Mentions: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B ($4,600 DK, $3,400 FD) at BOS; Ronald Acuña Jr, OF ($5,200 DK, $4,300 FD) vs WAS; Jesse Winker, OF ($4,200 DK, $2,900 FD) at CIN, Yoán Moncada, 3B ($5,100 DK, $3,600 FD) at KC; Luis Robert, OF ($4,600 DK, $3,600 FD) at KC.
Value Batter: 3B Josh Donaldson, MIN ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD) vs DET
The Twins will get to face the rookie Casey Mize for the second straight start. In their first meeting, Mize struggled, needing all of 67 pitches to get through three innings. Twins bats project really well today as they have one of the more robust implied totals of the afternoon at just under six runs. Josh Donaldson, who recently returned from the IL, should be hitting second. Simply put, this is just too cheap of a price tag for a hitter of his caliber (.391 xwOBA last season), especially against an inexperienced pitcher in Mize.
Honorable Mentions: Rowdy Tellez, 1B ($3,800 DK) at BOS; José García, SS ($2,000 DK, $2,000 FD) at PIT; Miguel Andújar, 3B ($2,800 DK, $2,000 FD) at BAL; Víctor Robles, OF ($2,500 DK, $2,400 FD) at ATL; Clint Frazier, OF ($3,900 DK) at BAL; Aaron Hicks, OF ($3,600 DK, $2,800 FD) at BAL; Nomar Mazara, OF ($2,400, $2,300 FD) at KC.
Lineup Stack: White Sox at Royals (RHP Matt Harvey)
Unfortunately it didn’t work out last night, but let’s go back to the White Sox well one more time as this could be one of our last opportunities to stack against Matt Harvey. The Dark Knight has only made a few appearances so far this year, but looking back to last year with the Angels in just under 60 innings we’re left with a fairly hideous 3.8% K-BB%, .401 xwOBA, .309 xBA, and 7.44 xERA. We know this lineup is loaded with power so it’s not surprising at all to see the likes of Tim Anderson (.370 xwOBA this season), Jose Abreu (.394 xwOBA), Eloy Jiménez (.387 xwOBA), and Luis Robert (.401 xwOBA) project really well this afternoon. Harvey has shown a particular affinity to get pasted by lefties (.400 wOBA allowed to LHB in 2019) so Yoán Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, and even Nomar Mazara as a punt play could be strong options to consider.
Honorable Mentions: TOR at BOS (Triggs); ATL vs WAS (Corbin); BOS vs TOR (Ray); NYY at BAL (TBD); MIN vs DET (Mize).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)