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Top SP: Aaron Nola, PHI ($10,600 DK, $10,900 FD) at TB
Well, we’ve made it to the final day of the 2020 season and someway somehow the Phillies are still alive. They’re going to need some help but in the meantime, all they can do now is lean on their ace Aaron Nola, who has been stellar this year with a career-best 26% K-BB%, because Lord knows Joe Girardi does not want to go that pen if he can help it. Given the possible playoff implications, Nola seems like one of the better bets for volume.
Sonny Gray (21.5% K-BB% this season) is your other pitcher of note in the top tier this afternoon, but given that the Reds have secured a playoff berth and that he’s coming off of an injury you’d have to be surprised to see him pushed much past the 80 pitch mark we saw last time out.
Honorable Mentions: Sonny Gray, CIN ($9,000 DK, $9,900 FD) at MIN.
Value SP: Seth Lugo, NYM ($8,200 DK, $7,700 FD) at WAS
Seth Lugo has been impressive in his six starts this season with a 26.9% K-BB%. In his last outing against the Rays, he pitched into the seventh inning while allowing one run and collecting seven strikeouts on 32% CSW. The strikeout upside is there with Lugo, the question is always just a matter of volume. Having thrown 96 pitches his last time out we should see a similar type of workload as the Mets look to give him one final audition as a potential piece in the rotation next season.
Honorable Mention: Drew Smyly SF ($8,400 DK, $7,600 FD) vs SD.
SS Trevor Story, COL ($5,800 DK, $4,100 FD) at ARI
The Mets could do some damage to Austin Voth whose 10.9% K-BB% and 5.84 xFIP aren’t too impressive. He has allowed a .382 wOBA to RHB this season making Pete Alonso an interesting bat for tournaments.
Honorable Mentions: Fernando Tatís Jr, SS ($5,600 DK, $4,200 FD) at SF; Alex Bregman, 3B ($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD) at TEX; Ronald Acuña Jr, OF ($6,000 DK, $4,500 FD) vs BOS; Aaron Judge, OF ($5,600 DK, $4,100 FD) vs MIA; José Abreu, 1B ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD) vs CHC; Pete Alonso, 1B ($4,300 DK, $3,600 FD) at WAS.
OF Kyle Tucker, HOU ($4,200 DK, $3,400 FD) at TEX
Yesterday, the Astros sat a couple of key bats in George Springer and Michael Brantley, which is something that Dusty Baker could very easily opt to do again today so be sure to double-check the lineup. However, their matchup today against Jordan Lyles and his 4.4% K-BB% should be highlighted. We mentioned Kyle Tucker yesterday and this is another great spot for him today as Lyles has surrendered a .371 wOBA to LHB over the past two seasons.
Don’t forget about the Cubs today too. They get Reynaldo López who has surrendered a .359 wOBA to lefties the past two seasons making Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, and Jason Heyward all bats to consider.
Honorable Mentions: George Springer, OF ($5,500 DK, $4,100 FD) at HOU; Michael Brantley, OF ($4,000 DK, $3,100 FD) at TEX, Ian Happ, OF ($4,000 DK, $3,000 FD) at CWS; Kyle Schwarber OF ($3,800 DK, $2,900 FD) at CWS.
Value Batter: OF Willie Calhoun, TEX ($2,900 DK, $2,100 FD) vs HOU
If you’re looking for value plays, be sure to look out for the Rangers today as they’ll be facing Chase de Jong. We haven’t seen much of him the past two years but considering that we are talking about a pitcher who tallied a 9.73 ERA across 45.1 innings in Triple-A last year with the Twins we might be able to consider some bats here. Willie Calhoun fits the bill, he’s cheap and has the power upside (.256 ISO last season) we covet. Really, quite a few Rangers bats are cheap enough here to consider as well including Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Leody Taveras, and Nick Solak. Gallo in particular projects really well especially so because of de Jong’s career 12.8% K rate.
It’s been a disappointing follow up to last year’s breakout, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention one of my favorites one final time. Ketel Marte is very affordable and he’ll be on the stronger side of his splits today as a righty against the southpaw Kyle Freeland. He’s certainly worth considering at 2nd base if he’s in there today.
Honorable Mentions: Nick Solak, OF ($3,300 DK, $2,700 FD) vs HOU; J.D. Davis, OF ($2,700 FD) at WAS; Ketel Marte, 2B ($3, 100 DK, $2,700 FD) vs COL; Joey Gallo, OF ($3,200 DK, $3,100 FD) vs HOU; Nomar Mazara, OF ($2,400 DK, $2,300 FD) vs CHC; Alec Bohm, 3B ($3,100 DK, $2,900 FD) at TB.
Lineup Stack: Yankees vs MIA (RHP José Ureña)
A large part of this slate figures to be dictated by what kind of lineup the Yankees and Braves send out today. José Ureña doesn’t exactly profile as the type of pitcher that should be able to survive a trip to Yankee Stadium and leave with his ratios intact. Speaking of said ratios, Ureña carries a 6.00 ERA and 1.48 WHIP into today’s contest. He’s also allowed a lot of hard contact, evidence being a .389 xwOBA. Assuming that we don’t get a lineup with Tyler Wade hitting cleanup this would be the first spot to look for bats. The projections at FTN have the Yankees neck and neck with the Dodgers for the highest implied run total of the slate at just under six runs. Although, considering that Mookie Betts got plunked last night you’d figure Dave Roberts would rather just put his whole team in bubble wrap for today’s meaningless game.
The other spot is down in Atlanta where the Braves get to face Nick Pivetta. The same Nick Pivetta who had a 5.51 xERA, 354 xwOBA allowed, and 10% barrel rate last season. You know what the Braves are capable of though there isn’t much incentive here so assuming they do sit their regulars Pivetta himself could become an option as a 2nd SP punt on DraftKings. If you do make that leap, just be sure to ignore his previous appearance against the Braves.
And as mentioned earlier it’s a similar situation with the Astros and Jordan Lyles. Although we’re not playing Lyles of course.
And just like that, we put a bow on a season that feels like it just began.
Thank you all for following along all season and I hope you were able to find success this year.
Honorable Mentions: ATL vs BOS (Pivetta); HOU at TEX (Lyles) TEX vs HOU (De Jong); CHC at CWS (López).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)