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Top SP: Brandon Woodruff, MIL ($8,700 DK, $9,300 FD) at STL
With the Brewers still in the mix for the playoffs, we can expect them to lean on their ace Brandon Woodruff. The righty has been excellent this year with a 3.43 ERA and 1.07 WHIP to go along with a 24.1% K-BB% across his 12 starts. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have been a below-average offense against RHP with a modest .309 team wOBA (21st). Keep in mind if you are considering Aaron Civale for his great matchup against the Pirates, it looks like he’ll be on a pitch count of sorts for his final start. And the same can be assumed for Tony Gonsolin if you consider that both Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler went just four innings in their final starts.
Honorable Mentions: Luis Castillo, CIN ($9,800 DK, $10,400 FD) at MIN.
Value SP: Luke Weaver, ARI ($7,100 DK, $6,300 FD) vs COL
We’ve been picking on the Rockies all year when they’re on the road. This season they’ve accumulated a .286 team wOBA on the road to go along with a 26.2% team K rate both being fourth-worst in baseball. Luke Weaver has had some pretty brutal results this year but remember he did post a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last season to go along with a 21.2% K-BB% so there is potential upside here. A discounted salary and favorable matchup puts him in consideration tonight.
Honorable Mention: Germán Márquez COL ($7,700 DK, $8,900 FD) at ARI.
1B Freddie Freeman, ATL ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD) vs BOS
No surprise here. Anytime the Braves are set to face an unproven righty you’ve got to strongly consider Freddie Freeman and his career .396 wOBA against RHP. Tonight they’ll be facing the Red Sox rookie Tanner Houck. He’s performed well through his first two starts but this will be a stiff challenge for him as he heads to Atlanta to face what has been the top offense against RHP this season with a .366 team wOBA. After being out of last night’s starting lineup and, of course, hitting a pinch-hit home run, Freeman should be back in there tonight. If he’s not, José Abreu is another strong play to consider at first base going against Jon Lester.
Honorable Mentions: Fernando Tatis Jr, SS ($5,400 DK, $4,200 FD) at SF; Alex Bregman, 3B ($4,800 DK, $3,500 FD) at TEX; Ronald Acuña Jr, OF ($5,900 DK, $4,500 FD) vs BOS; George Springer, OF ($5,500 DK, $4,100 FD) at TEX; José Abreu, 1B ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD) vs CHC.
OF Kyle Tucker, HOU ($4,200 DK, $3,400 FD) at TEX
Kyle Gibson and his 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP are worth picking on here with some Astros bats. Gibson’s FIP and xFIP to lefty batters this season sits at 7.03 and 5.18 respectively. Overall, he’s allowed a .384 xwOBA and his xERA sits at a not so good 6.13. So certainly feel free to target any Astros hitters here, but Kyle Tucker and his .378 wOBA against RHP this season makes sense as a one-off.
Honorable Mentions: Tim Anderson, SS ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD) vs CHC; Michael Brantley, OF ($4,000 DK, $3,100 FD) at TEX, Salvador Pérez, C ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD) vs DET; Christian Yelich OF ($4,300 DK, $4,000 FD) at STL.
Value Batter: OF Willie Calhoun, TEX ($2,900 DK, $2,100 FD) vs HOU
As of this writing, the Astros haven’t tabbed a starter for tonight’s contest. It’s been a lost year for Willie Calhoun, but don’t forget this is a batter who posted a .351 wOBA and .256 ISO in roughly half a season before. Considering what he showed last year, Calhoun looks like a strong value play, especially on FanDuel.
The projections over on FTN are liking the Detroit Tigers tonight. It’s not too often you see them have a total approaching five runs and yet here we are with Carlos Hernández who has a well below-average K rate of 18.7%. He’s also allowed a .440 wOBA to lefties this year putting Victor Reyes, Harold Castro, and Christin Stewart in play as value options. Keep the Tigers in mind if you’re searching for value plays.
Honorable Mentions: Victor Reyes, OF ($3,300 DK, $2,600 FD) at KC; Christin Stewart, 2B/OF ($2,300 DK, $2,100 FD) at KC; Harold Castro, 2B ($2,400 DK, $2,000 FD) at KC; Alec Bohm, 3B ($3,200 DK, $2,900 FD) at TB; Sam Hilliard, OF ($2,400 DK, $2,600 FD) at ARI.
Lineup Stack: Astros at TEX (RHP Kyle Gibson)
As we head into the final weekend, be sure to keep a close eye on starting lineups as teams lacking incentive with regards to playoff implications may opt to sit some of their regulars. We mentioned Gibson earlier and he’s struggled badly this year with a 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP while surrendering a .384 xwOBA. Tucker stands out as a great stand-alone play. For whatever reason Michael Brantley always seems to be just too cheap, considering his .367 wOBA and 138 wRC+ this year. George Springer (.416 xwOBA this season) and Alex Bregman (.350 xwOBA) are the other standouts here. While both Carlos Correa and José Altuve have really struggled this year leaving them as plays best considered for tournaments. The Astros have easily the highest implied run total of the night at just under six runs.
Another interesting spot is the Atlanta Braves game. You’d figure most will want to target the Braves side of that game as they’ll be going against the rookie Tanner Houck. But don’t forget about Boston in tournaments, provided they don’t send out another B squad lineup like last night they could be interesting as they are facing Tucker Davidson who is making his major-league debut.
Honorable Mentions: ATL vs BOS (Houck); CWS vs CHC (Lester) BOS at ATL (Davidson).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)