Tuesday night features a full slate with all thirty teams in action. This feels like one of the most wide-open slates we’ve had all season with several aces on the board, a game at Coors Field, and more than a few offenses that could go off as potential stacks.
Top Tier Pitching
Brandon Woodruff leads tonight’s impressive ace tier. This will be his fourth appearance against the Cubs, across those previous three matchups he holds a 0.47 ERA and matching 0.47 WHIP (19 IP). Needless to say, Woodruff has been a rock, holding opposing hitters to a stellar .252 xwOBA in addition to a 31% K rate. Woodruff probably has the highest floor, however, there are some very good alternatives if you need the savings. His case could be furthered tonight if Anthony Rizzo is forced to miss another game with a back injury.
Robbie Ray is a massive home favorite against the Mariners. He brings a little more volatility than Woodruff considering his underlying numbers aren’t quite as sharp, but, there’s no denying the strikeout upside tonight against the Mariners who have a 27.5% K rate as a team vs LHP (fifth-worst).
Lucas Giolito looks like one of the stronger values here in terms of strikeout ability. It’s not a great setup though in terms of run prevention as the Twins are third in ISO at .187 along with tonight’s venue of Guaranteed Rate Field being home run friendly. Still, Giolito combines strikeout and pitch count upside as he’s cleared 100 in each of his last five, so there’s legitimate appeal in the sub $9,000 price tag on DK for all formats. Once the Orioles announce their mystery starter, I’d guess the Astros end up being the biggest favorite on the board. However, José Urquidy looks a bit overpriced relative to his underlying skills especially compared to Kevin Gausman who is somehow $300 cheaper on DraftKings.
The Giants/Dodgers game is a fascinating one. Gausman has been, point-blank, better than Walker Buehler across the board. And yet, he finds himself as the road dog in this one, a product of a weaker supporting cast. This is one of those rare instances where if choosing between the two, even though the matchup isn’t in his favor, I’m siding with the road underdog in Gausman, he’s just been better. In terms of K rate, he’s got a significant edge at 30.8% compared to Buehler’s 25.2%.
Cash Game Bats
One of the hot spots for offense tonight will be down in Fenway Park as the Red Sox have one of tonight’s best-implied team totals of over six runs. They’ll face off against the Royal’s Brad Keller whose walk rate this season is at a career-worst 10.8% and he’s also allowed a .399 xwOBA to opposing hitters this season. Not a great combination if the goal is trying to keep runs off the board. Rafael Devers is a premier play for all formats as he’ll have the platoon advantage against the righty Keller.
Here we go. Another game at Coors Field awaits us. The Rockies have the edge here installed as significant home favorites (-165). Leave it to the Pirates. They’ll be throwing out the righty Chase De Jong who has not enjoyed much success in his scattered appearances in the big leagues dating back to 2017. For his career, he owns a 6.46 ERA and 1.62 WHIP while allowing a wOBA of over .370 to both lefties and righties. The Rockies are tied with the Red Sox for the top implied team total on the board so I wouldn’t hesitate here in any format. Charlie Blackmon makes sense as he’ll have the favorable L/R matchup against De Jong, he’s also hit the ball well so far and is perhaps underperforming a little evidenced by a .330 wOBA backed by a more robust .369 xwOBA.
The other side of the Coors Field game sees a similarly weak-hitting lineup in the Pirates. They get the much tougher matchup between the two in Germán Márquez who has held batters to just a .304 xwOBA this season. The one play that really sticks out in terms of DraftKings salary is Bryan Reynolds at $3,700. I’m not sure what more the man needs to do to get a bump in his price tag considering he holds a .400 wOBA on the nose along with a .311/ .397/ .527 slash this season. He’s one of the better values on the board for all formats.
The Padres have a robust implied team total of five and a half runs. I don’t mind going here in any format as we know the Padres have a ton of upside. Tonight they get a bump in the venue as the scene shifts to homer-friendly GABP. Tony Santillan doesn’t seem like a good bet to suppress this offense given what we’ve seen of him thus far, an elevated walk rate of 12.5% along with an xwOBA allowed of .377. Fire up Fernando Tatís et al.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.s chalk week (month, year!?) continues. There’s at least a modicum of hope that Chris Flexen can mute the Jays offense to a degree, considering that he has limited hitters to a decent .329 xwOBA. However, his margin for error is close to nil considering his well-below average K rate of 16.6% and, really, trying to navigate this lineup is akin to running the gauntlet for even the strongest of pitchers. Considering the overall strength of this offense, they are on the board for all formats any time they face a suspect pitcher. Tonight is no different as the Jays are installed with a team total of just under six runs.
Don’t forget the Astros. Baseball’s best offense by just about every metric is set to face some sort of mystery starter for the Orioles setting up yet another potential eruption spot. The Astros are right there with the Red Sox and Rockies with an implied team total of over six runs.
It’s not often you see Cleveland with a team total pushing five and a half runs. Such is the gift of José Ureña and the Tigers bullpen whose relievers have combined for an impressively bad 1.52 WHIP (tied second-worst with ARI). After a huge game last night, this is another good matchup for José Ramirez against the aforementioned Ureña, who has not been able to get lefties out for the majority of his career. Bobby Bradley is another interesting name here, he’s shown massive raw power in the minors including a .303 ISO back in 2019 for Triple-A Columbus while his strikeout risk is lessened some tonight by Ureña’s career 11.7% K rate against lefties. Cleveland is one of the weaker offenses overall, but they get a legitimately great matchup tonight making them a place to look for tournaments.
Despite their perpetual mediocrity so far this year, I’m obliged to note that the Yankees do have an upside for tournaments as they’ll stack a bunch of righty power against Heaney. They do also have an implied total of over five and a half runs. At the same time, I also wouldn’t be surprised in the least bit if Heaney ended up pitching really well considering his sharp 22.5% K-BB% on the year making this a tournament-only sort of spot for me. On the other side, of course, there’s Shohei Ohtani going against Taillon who has allowed a .376 wOBA to opposing LHB.
You could make a pretty good case that Zach Davies is the weakest pitcher going tonight considering his barely-there 14.2% K rate and .377 xwOBA allowed. On the flip side, he’ll find some potential reprieve in what has been a weak Brewers offense. Still, I think there’s a potential upside here for tournaments, namely Christian Yelich and a very cheap Keston Hiura.
In terms of overall offense, the Athletics are lower in priority with a team total that doesn’t stick out as much at five runs. However, this is a great matchup for Matt Olson as he’ll face Mike Foltynewicz who has allowed an alarming .411 xwOBA to lefties this year.
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