Tuesday brings us a wide open 14-game slate featuring a game at Coors Field and plenty of pitching options to look at.
Top SP: Robbie Ray TOR ($8,500 DK, $9,100 FD) vs. MIA
Overall, Robbie Ray (22% K-BB%, 30.3% CSW 2021) has been impressive. Maybe that’s an understatement as his WHIP of 1.13 would easily be a career-best (1.37 career average). He’s shown off impressive bat-missing ability too with a swinging K rate of 15.7% on the year behind only Tyler Glasnow’s 16.9% relative to tonight’s probables. For Ray it was a forgettable start against the Yankees his last time out. Tonight, though, he gets a chance to get back on track with the Marlins and their 27.8% team K rate against LHP (fourth worst). There’s pitch count upside with Ray too as he’s gone well over 100 in two of his last three stars. The Blue Jays are one of tonight’s bigger favorites on the board (-147) despite a very tough matchup against the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara.
Considering the Yankees’ repugnant offense of late, I’m not sure, outside of That’s Baseball Suzyn, how Tyler Glasnow (27.7% KBB%, 33.7% CSW 2021) doesn’t succeed tonight. If you’re looking to eschew the discount with the aforementioned Ray, Glasnow is easily the top play on the board.
There are quite a few options at pitcher tonight. Including both starters in the Reds’ game with the visiting Aaron Nola (23.3% K-BB%, 31.1% CSW 2021) and Sonny Gray (18% K-BB%, 31.6% CSW 2021). That game is basically a pick ‘em.
Another strong option to consider is Alex Wood (20.5% K-BB%, 32.8% CSW). The former Dodger and All-Star is enjoying a fine renaissance recording at least six strikeouts in all but two of his starts this year, one of those being at Coors Field. Tonight, he gets the visiting Angels who should be without Shohei Ohtani sans the DH. The Angels’ implied run total is the lowest on the board at just barely over three runs with the Giants installed as big home favorites tonight (-162).
Honorable Mentions: Sonny Gray, CIN ($8,900 DK, $7,700 FD) vs PHI; Aaron Nola, PHI ($10,200 DK, $10,100 FD) at CIN; Tyler Glasnow, TB ($9,800 DK, $10,700 FD) at NYY; Alex Wood, SF ($8,700 DK, $9,900 FD) vs LAA.
Value SP: Matthew Boyd, DET ($6,500 DK, $8,500 FD) at MIL
Matthew Boyd (13.4% K-BB%, 28.7% CSW 2021) enters tonight with a 3.43 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Though that comes with a precipitous drop in K rate the past two seasons from 30.2% in 2019 to just 19.7% this year. Really, this is just picking on the Brewers’ offense. Thus far they’ve K’d at a 27.8% clip against southpaws this year, tied with the Marlins for fourth-worst.
Brady Singer (14.2% K-BB%, 30.6% CSW 2021) is another match-up based value. The Pirates’ .288 team wOBA is second from the bottom. The Royals are tonight’s biggest favorite on the board (-184).
OF Nelson Cruz, MIN ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD) at BAL
Unproven lefty Bruce Zimmermann (11.9% K-BB%, 26.8% CSW 2021) and the Orioles will be hosting a Twins lineup that is replete with righty power and they are also one of just two other teams (Dodgers, Rockies) with an implied team total north of five runs. Through nine starts in the big leagues (one last year) Zimmermann has allowed a .360 wOBA to opposing RHB to go along with just a 17% K rate. Enter Nelson Cruz who has continued to defy Father Time producing a .390 wOBA over the past two seasons. His teammate Josh Donaldson and his career .399 wOBA against LHP isn’t a bad play either.
1B Pete Alonso, NYM ($5,000 DK, $3,000 FD) at ARI
The Mets got back some much needed offensive firepower last night in Pete Alonso. And he immediately delivered a bomb in his first game back. After a down year in 2020, the Mets’ first baseman looks more like the slugger we saw in 2019 with a .378 xwOBA so far this year. Caleb Smith has been used mostly out of the pen this year but will return to a starting role for tonight’s game. And that’s a role where he hasn’t exactly thrived, allowing 37 home runs while accumulating a 4.47 ERA and 1.29 WHIP as a starter going back to 2019 (33 starts, 168.1 IP).
Value Batter: 1B Nate Lowe, TEX ($3,500 DK, $2,800 FD) at COL
Germán Márquez (12.2% K-BB%, 28.8% CSW 2021) has shown strong skills in the past, peaking in 2018 with a 3.77 ERA, 21.2% K-BB%, and 1.20 WHIP across 196 IP so this isn’t the best matchup rather it’s all about the salary considering the boon that is Coors Field. In his first year with Texas, Nate Lowe has been productive with a .337 wOBA (.349 xwOBA). On the right side of his splits, and likely hitting third, Lowe should garner a lot of attention across all formats. His teammate the lefty hitting Willie Calhoun (.322 wOBA and .346 xwOBA) is also favorably priced as the leadoff man and has shown some power to go along with an outstanding 13% K rate. For his career, Márquez has ceded a .331 wOBA to LHB as opposed to just .301 against RHB leaving both of the lefties here as strong values.
On the other side of this game, the Rockies will get to take on Dane Dunning (17.1% K-BB%, 29.9% CSW) who has pitched well overall this year though he’s coming off what was by far his worst start of the year allowing seven runs to the Angels in just four innings and it is Coors Field so you know the drill. Brendan Rodgers is an interesting value play as a Rockies prospect who should now get an extended look following an injury to Trevor Story. Rodgers missed the first part of the season with a hamstring injury. His teammate C.J. Cron looks like an easy value on FanDuel at just $2,500 considering his power upside.
If you’re looking for a value play outside of the Coors game, Kyle Tucker might fit the bill. We saw his upside last year as he recorded a .349 wOBA to go along with eight steals. There’s a pretty decent chance his salary goes up from here. He’ll face Garrett Richards who can certainly be up and down. The Astros have an implied total just under five runs.
Honorable Mentions: Willie Calhoun, OF ($3,600 DK, $3,900 FD) at COL; Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS ($3,700 DK, $2,100 FD) vs TEX; Kyle Tucker, OF ($3,400 DK, $3,000 FD) vs BOS; Andrew Benintendi, OF ($3,100 DK, $2,600 FD) vs. PIT; Danny Santana, 1B/OF ($2,700 DK, $2,500 FD) at HOU; C.J. Cron, 1B ($2,500 FD) vs TEX; Adalberto Mondesí, SS ($3,500 DK, $3,200 FD) vs PIT.
Top Stack: LAD vs STL (Gant)
John Gant enters tonight’s contest with a 1.81 ERA through nine starts but that comes with a 1.57 WHIP so right away we should know something has got to give. And sure enough he’s got a walk rate of 15.4% and just a 9.3% swinging K rate. His arsenal isn’t all that much either, dominated by a low 90s sinker that he’s throwing at just under 40%. And while his changeup has been decent returning a 38% whiff rate (21.1% usage) this really just feels like a whole lot of pixie dust. The vicissitudes of variance have been in his favor so far with a .304 wOBA opposed by a .348 xwOBA and a 3% HR/FB rate but going against a powerful Dodgers lineup that just returned Cody Bellinger, we should see the pendulum swing the other way tonight. The top half of the Dodger’s lineup carries excellent upside with the likes of Mookie Betts (.378 career wOBA), Max Muncy (.366), Justin Turner (.375), Bellinger (.373), and Will Smith (.377). This is definitely a spot to put on your radar if you’re looking for a pivot away from the Coors Field game in tournaments.
Honorable Mentions: MIN at BAL (Zimmermann); COL vs TEX (Dunning); TEX at COL (Márquez); HOU vs BOS (Richards).
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)