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We’ve reached the last day in August. We’ve got about four more weeks of regular season baseball before the wild playoffs begin. Let’s start your Monday off right by taking a look at today’s 7-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, make sure you check FTN’s Lineups Page once lineups are out.
Top SP: Tyler Glasnow, TB ($8,400 DK, $9,500 FD) at NYY
On a day where we have Shane Bieber, Gerrit Cole, and Lucas Giolito on the slate, I want to highlight Tyler Glasnow. Listen, there’s nothing wrong with those options. They’re expensive and they’re awesome. I especially love Giolito, who draws a matchup against a struggling Twins team – .261 team wOBA over the last 7 days and 30.5% strikeout rate in that time against righties.
Glasnow is coming off an absolute gem his last time out. He stuck out 13 Orioles over seven IP while allowing two earned runs. The most important part of that start though was the one walk. Glasnow has excellent stuff, but he can be wild at times. Today he gets a matchup in New York with the Yankees. Scary, yes? No, not really. Over the last 14 days, the Yankees have posted a team wOBA of .296 and during that time, they’ve struck out at a 27.5% clip against righties. If we zoom in closer, that team wOBA drops to .274 over the last seven days and the K-rate jumps to 28.8%. I love Glasnow’s price on DraftKings, as he allows you some salary relief from the other aces. FTN’s Lineup Optimizer has Glasnow’s projection as the fourth-highest on the slate, behind the above three aces.
Value SP: Trevor Williams, PIT ($6,600 DK, $8,700 FD) at MIL
Trevor Williams is our lone value starter on today’s slate. Our other options—Spencer Howard vs. WAS, Erick Fedde at PHI, and Brad Keller vs. CLE—all have matchups against teams that are heating up or are hitting the ball hard. If you’re playing GPPs, feel free to have a share of each of them, but Williams is my value guy today. Other than his last start against the White Sox, Williams had allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start this year. He does a good job of limiting hard contact – 30.5% – and has only allowed three barrels on the year. Today he gets a matchup with the Brewers, who have continued to struggle against righties. Over their last 14 days, they’ve posted a .268 wOBA against right-handed pitching, while striking out 27.1% of the time. They have ticked up slightly over the last seven days to the tune of a .299 wOBA, but that strikeout rate has also risen to 28.8% in that time. I expect Williams to be solid today.
OF Eloy Jiménez, CHW ($5,000 DK, $3,800 FD) at MIN
The White Sox face a lefty today. Honestly, that could be the analysis, as the entire team destroys lefties. Fine, I’ll give you more. Over their last 14 days, the White Sox have a team wOBA of .447 against southpaws. For his part, Eloy Jiménez has mashed this year, posting a .303 average with 11 homers. On the bump for the Twins is Rich Hill, who returned from the IL and threw a gem against the Indians. The issue is Cleveland has been terrible against left-handed pitching this year. Over their last 14 days, they’ve posted a team wOBA of .259 against lefties. I don’t expect Hill to have a fun time on the mound today.
1B Freddie Freeman, ATL ($5,300 DK, $3,900 FD) at BOS
I could probably leave Freddie Freeman here every time I have this article and I’d be happy most of the time. Freeman has been so good this year, walking more than he strikes out and posting a .303 average to boot. I love the matchup today for the Braves as they get Colten Brewer and a Red Sox bullpen that has allowed a 5.79 ERA over the last 14 days. Outside of the Coors game, Freeman has the second-highest projection of any infielder according to FTN’s Lineup Optimizer.
Value Batter: OF Victor Robles, WAS ($2,200 DK, $2,400 FD) at PHI
I knew Victor Robles was struggling, but I didn’t realize it had reached this point. Robles actually has four hits in his last 12 plate appearances, but still saw his salary dip from $2,700 on Friday to $2,200 today. The Nats get a matchup with Phillies prospect Spencer Howard, who has struggled in his first MLB action, posting a 6.17 ERA over three starts. He’s allowed a 10.1% K-BB% and a 27.9% line-drive rate. To me, Robles makes a nice punt play or, if you’re stacking the Nats today, having Robles in a wrap-around stack is a nice salary saver.
Lineup Stack: White Sox at Twins (LHP Rich Hill)
Outside of Coors, the Braves, Nationals, and White Sox all have team totals over 5.0 runs. I’ve already proclaimed my love for the White Sox offense, to let’s keep the good times rolling. After Rich Hill, the White Sox will face a Twins bullpen that has struggled of late, allowing a 6.23 ERA over their last 7 days. They’re not just getting BABIP’d either, as they’ve allowed a 35.0% line drive rate in that span.
In addition to Jiménez, I like José Abreu ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD), Tim Anderson ($5,700 DK, $3,800 FD), Luis Robert ($4,500 DK, $3,400 FD), and Yasmani Grandal ($4,800 DK, $2,900 FD). This is a pretty pricy stack, but I think that it will be a nice pivot off of Coors. Make sure to check out FTN’s Stack Targets, which is free to all users. Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: Padres at Rockies (RHP Germán Márquez); Braves at Red Sox (RHP Colten Brewer); Nationals at Phillies (RHP Spencer Howard); Rockies vs. Padres (RHP Garrett Richards); Phillies vs. Nationals (RHP Erick Fedde)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)