Tuesday brings a wide open 14-game slate (13 on FanDuel, where they’ve omitted the Mets/Marlins doubleheader game) with plenty of offense to consider, highlighted by the Twins, Blue Jays, and White Sox. The Yankees get a bump up with Shohei Ohtani’s start being pushed back, as they’ll face Jaime Barria instead. Pitching options are replete too with Buehler, Giolito, and Woodruff to pick from at the top.
The Top Tier
Zac Gallen is underpriced relative to his upside at just $7,600 on DraftKings and $8,300 on FanDuel. Team context also drags him down as he’s once again an underdog. It’s a tough matchup against the Padres (21.9% team K rate, 27th), but he certainly has shown the skills to overcome it making him an SP2 option.
Austin Gomber is another interesting option in the mid-tier. He’s shown some strikeout upside lately, most notably a nine strikeout (38% CSW) performance against the Marlins back on Aug. 7. He’s not a great bet to go much further than six innings, but he’s definitely an option against a weak-hitting Rangers squad (.292 team wOBA, 29th). If you missed it, be sure to check out Jai Correa’s Going Deep article on Gomber from back in June.
Blake Snell has seemingly come back from the dead with a few strong starts recently. He’s a strong road favorite (-156) against the D-Backs (.302 team wOBA, 25th). The upside is tough to ignore as an SP2 on DraftKings at $7,700, so he should be fairly popular, making him a potential fade in tournaments considering his volatility this year. On FanDuel, his price has caught up at $9,400, so he should be less popular there, where you have McCullers at $9,200 and Giolito at $10,200 to consider in that range.
Bats and Stacks
- MIN (5.4) vs. CHC Zach Davies (RHP) 6.6% K-BB, .365 xwOBA, 1.48 WHIP, 5.95 xERA: The Twins are just too cheap on DraftKings. Byron Buxton (.406 xwOBA this year) at $3,200 is one of the best plays of the slate on DK. Josh Donaldson (.385 xwOBA) is not far behind at $3,900. Luis Arraez (.339 xwOBA) doesn’t have power upside, but is another strong value at $3,000 as a leadoff hitter with superb contact skills and an excellent .368 OBP. Miguel Sanó (.321 xwOBA) is the boom/bust play lower in the order with multiple home run upside. Max Kepler is another tournament option with power who looks to be underperforming this year based on a .314 wOBA vs. a .345 xwOBA.
- TOR (6.3) vs. BAL Keegan Akin (LHP) 10.5% K-BB, .345 xwOBA, 1.70 WHIP, 5.22 xERA: The Jays got George Springer (.375 xwOBA) back and can put up some serious righty power, making them a no-brainer stack against a low-K rate lefty like Akin, who has allowed a .383 wOBA (.363 xwOBA) to RHB this year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr./strong> (.410 xwOBA) should be a popular pay-up option at 1B.
- CWS (5.9) vs. PIT Bryse Wilson (RHP) 9% K-BB, .346 xwOBA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.26 xERA: Traded from Atlanta at the deadline, Wilson has shown some strong splits in favor of LHB, allowing a .382 xwOBA to LHB this year, putting Yoán Moncada (.348 xwOBA) and Yasmani Grandal (.406 xwOBA) on the immediate radar. Wilson has been a bit better against RHB (.307 xwOBA), regardless, this lineup could easily break the slate, making them one of the highest upside stacks on the board against a suspect pitcher. Luis Robert (.346 xwOBA) looks a little too cheap relative to his upside on DraftKings at $4,200.
- NYY (4.6) at LAA Jaime Barria (RHP) 4% K-BB, .369 xwOBA, 1.53 WHIP, 6.11 xERA: The Yankees get a favorable matchup against a pitcher who has shown just a 12.6% K rate. A low-K rate RHP instantly puts Joey Gallo (.359 xwOBA) on the board. Barria has shown some interesting reverse splits for his career; against LHB, it’s a .301 wOBA, and .365 wOBA against RHB. You know the Yankees can stack a ton of righty power with the likes of Aaron Judge (.414 xwOBA), Giancarlo Stanton (.352 xwOBA), and Gary Sánchez (.335 xwOBA). Anthony Rizzo (.352 xwOBA) remains underpriced on DraftKings at $3,800.
- HOU (4.5) at SEA Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) 16.4% K-BB, .334 xwOBA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.85 xERA: Kikuchi has been a little out of sorts lately, and the Astros have seemed to have his number at times this year, too. Their lineup got a big boost recently with the return of Alex Bregman, adding to the upside of an Astros stack in tournaments.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)