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Top SP: Kenta Maeda, MIN ($9,600 DK, $9,700 FD) at DET
Note that FanDuel is including all of the games today on their main slate minus the Yankee/Mets double header and the late game between the Phillies and Braves. We’re going to focus mostly on the DraftKings main slate for this article though. They are including the Yankee Mets game starting at 1:05 PM EST, but keep in mind that’s a double-header so it’ll be a seven inning game.
Kenta Maeda has been stellar this year posting a 24.3% K-BB% that’s just behind Blake Snell (26% K-BB%) for the best on the board today. The former Dodger has been everything the Twins could have hoped for and more narrowly missing out on a no-no a couple of turns ago. His last time out he only went five innings on 83 pitches, but he did manage to collect seven K’s on an incredible 39% CSW against the Indians. Today, he gets a premium match-up against the Tigers, who have the worst team K rate against RHP at 29.3%.
The aforementioned Snell was finally unleashed his last start going over 100 pitches. Against southpaws, the Marlins have been not too good this year with a 27.1% team K-rate (4th worst) and .271 team wOBA (3rd worst).
Honorable Mentions: Blake Snell, TB ($9,200 DK, $9,400 FD) at MIA.
Value SP: Brandon Woodruff, MIL ($8,200 DK, $9,100 FD) vs PIT
On paper everything lines up nicely for Brandon Woodruff this afternoon. He’s pitched really well overall this year with an excellent 21.3% K-BB%. His last outing was a good one as he went six innings allowing two earned runs and collecting eight K’s (32% CSW) against the division rival Reds. The Brewers are huge home favorites against the Pirates, and there is no reason why their ace can’t dominate this woebegone lineup like Corbin Burnes did a couple nights ago. The projections at FTN have Woodruff pegged as a very strong value over on DraftKings.
Honorable Mention: Jesús Luzardo, OAK ($7,200 DK, $8,400 FD) at HOU; Dane Dunning, CWS ($4,500 DK) vs KC.
2B Keston Hiura, MIL ($5,200 DK, $3,300 FD) vs PIT
Brewers bats are top targets today, particularly the righties as they’ll face the lefty Steven Brault (1.7% K-BB% this year) who has the lowest swinging strike rate on the board at 6.5%, that should help mitigate the strikeout risk with Keston Hiura. According to the FTN projections, the Brewers team total sits at over five and a half runs.
Honorable Mentions: Juan Soto, OF ($5,700 DK, $4,800 FD) at BOS; Trevor Story, SS ($4,500 FD) vs SD; Fernando Tatís Jr, SS ($4,900 FD) at COL; Rafael Devers, 3B ($4,700 DK, $3,300 FD) vs WAS; Cody Bellinger, OF ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD) at TEX.
SS Corey Seager, LAD ($5,100 DK, $3,700 FD) at TEX
Corey Seager seems to be peaking right now with an alarming .492 xwOBA. He’s always hit righties well, but this year he’s just been downright cruel to them. How does a .470 wOBA, .204 wRC+, and an 8.2% K rate sound? The only thing you can say about Kyle Gibson at this point is that he’s got a very good ground ball rate. Otherwise he’s just meh.
Honorable Mentions: José Abreu, 1B ($5,400 DK, $4,100 FD) vs KC, Eloy Jiménez, OF ($4,900 DK, $3,600 FD) vs KC; Max Kepler, OF ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD) at DET; Christian Yelich, OF ($4,900, $4,000 FD) vs PIT.
Value Batter: 2B/3B Luis Urías, MIL ($3,000 DK, $2,300 FD) vs PIT
We mentioned earlier that the lefty Brault is someone we might want to pick on. Luis Urías has finally hit lead-off the past two games for the Brewers. He showed some power in the minors last year, although that may have been a product of the PCL. Regardless, the true calling card here are exceptional OBP skills that he’s shown throughout his minor league career. He’s a high-floor value play provided he finds himself leading off again.
Honorable Mentions: Nick Madrigal, 2B ($2,500 DK, $2,000 FD) vs KC;Avisaíl García, OF ($3,600 DK, $2,700 FD) vs PIT; Adam Eaton, OF ($3,200 DK, $2,800 FD) at BOS; José García, SS ($2,200 DK, $2,000 FD) vs CHC; Víctor Robles, OF ($2,500 DK, $2,400 FD) at BOS; Howie Kendrick, 1B ($3,800 DK, $2,800 FD) at BOS; Edwin Encarnación, 1B ($3,800 DK, $2,800 FD) vs KC.
Lineup Stack: White Sox vs Kansas City Royals (LHP Kris Bubic)
This will be the rookie Kris Bubic‘s second start against the White Sox. They’ve absolutely mauled lefty pitching so far this season with a league-leading .417 team wOBA. It’s not hard to see why as this lineup is absolutely loaded with right-handed power. Starting at the top with Tim Anderson who has a .423 wOBA against LHP the last two seasons combined. Likewise, José Abreu, who is in the middle of an MVP caliber season, has also posted a wOBA over .400 against southpaws the last two seasons combined. We should be giving Eloy Jiménez and his ridiculous 20.5% barrel rate a long look too. Yoán Moncada might sit this one out after aggravating a leg injury last night, but he has also posted a strong wOBA of .374 the past two seasons against LHP. Bubic has posted a below-average K rate so far of 18.4% putting Luis Robert firmly on the radar especially so in tournaments. Edwin Encarnación is another option too and he’s a strong value on both sites. Don’t forget the rookie Nick Madrigal is back too, there’s not much power there but he’s a near minimum 2B punt play to consider on both sites.
Honorable Mentions: BOS vs WAS (Voth); MIN at DET (Mize); WAS at BOS (Godley); LAD at TEX (Gibson); SD at COL (Castellani).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)