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DFS pricing just dropped, so I’m not going to waste anyone’s time with the ramblings of a crazy man. As always, make sure you check their Lineups Page once lineups are out.
Top SP: Zac Gallen, ARI ($9,700 DK, $10,000 FD) vs. SF
Zac Gallen has been excellent to start the year, posting a 2.25 ERA and striking out more than a batter per inning over 36 IP. He’s done a really good job of keeping the ball on the ground (46% GB%) while limiting hard-contact (31.8%). Tonight he gets a Giants offense that has been scrappy but has posted just a .316 wOBA against righties over the last 7 days. That’s decent, but not world-beating. Keep an eye out for info on whether the roof is open at Chase Field. Among the high-priced pitchers, Gallen currently sports the second-highest projection according to FTN’s Lineup Optimizer.
Value SP: Triston McKenzie, CLE ($6,600 DK, $8,700 FD) at STL
Triston McKenzie is our value starter on DK, while Dustin May is my favorite on FD. “Sticks” certainly showed the world why he’s been one of the top prospects in baseball as he struck out 10 Tigers over 6 IP while allowing just one run. He only allowed three batters to reach base in his first outing. Today’s matchup with the Cardinals will certainly be tougher than the Tigers (low bar). Over the last 14 days, the Cardinals have posted a .326 wOBA against righties—not terrible. Their plate discipline has been very respectful, putting up a 9.0% K-BB% in that time. I’m not saying McKenzie can’t have an awesome outing, I just want to pump the breaks some after his excellent first start.
Honorable Mentions: Andrew Heaney, LAA ($7,800 DK, $6,900 FD) vs. SEA
OF Wil Myers, SD ($4,100 DK, $3,500 FD) at COL
With all the moving and shaking the last two days, it looks like both sites forgot to price up some of the bats in Coors. Wil Myers gets a matchup against a lefty in Colorado at a cheap price. Kyle Freeland for his part has been decent this year, posting a 2.87 ERA thanks in part to an increased fastball velocity. However, there’s a long history of inflated scores in Coors and I’m more willing to bet on that history than on six starts by Freeland.
1B José Abreu, CHW ($5,200 DK, $4,100 FD) vs. KC
José Abreu is on a major heater. The White Sox slugger currently tops the list of FTN’s Hot Hitter Report, as he has mashed 7 homers over his last 5 games. Abreu also has 5 multi-hit games in his last 8 played. The White Sox get a matchup against lefty Danny Duffy today. Duffy has been impressive to start the year, allowing just a 1.00 WHIP. It does come with a 3.99 ERA thanks to some timely hitting. The only concern with Duffy is he’s returning to the mound after leaving his last start with forearm tightness. The other concern with Duffy comes in the form of the White Sox, who have put up an eye-popping .464 wOBA against lefties over the last 14 days.
Value Batter: OF Justin Upton, LAA ($2,100 DK, $2,500 FD) vs. SEA
Justin Upton is FTN’s Lineup Optimizer’s fourth-best value on tonight’s slate. Unfortunately for Upton, I cannot write a single nice thing about his season. He has three homers and a history of mashing left-handed pitching, making his price a nice punt play with upside against Nick Magevicius. Margevicius has been just-a-guy, while the Mariners bullpen has done some nasty things, allowing a 4.91 ERA over the last seven days. This should give Upton 4 or 5 attempts at mashing a homer.
Lineup Stack: White Sox vs. Royals (LHP Danny Duffy)
According to FTN’s Lineup Optimizer, the White Sox have a projected run total of just 4.5 runs. Maybe that makes me crazy for wanting to stack them, but if betting on an offense that has a .464 wOBA over the last 14 days against lefties makes me “mad”, just call me that hatter. The Royals’ bullpen has been okay over the last 14 days, posting a 4.27 ERA, but they’ve allowed a 47.5% hard-hit rate. Allowing those hard-hit balls to this White Sox team means bad things are coming for that ERA.
Keep an eye on Eloy Jiménez ($4,900 DK, $3,500 FD) for tonight as he appeared to sprain his ankle during the celebration of Lucas Giolito‘s no-no. In addition to Jiménez and Abreu, I like Tim Anderson ($5,500 DK, $3,700 FD), Yoán Moncada ($4,600 DK, $3,300 FD), and Yasmani Grandal ($4,700 DK, $2,900 FD). This is a pretty pricy stack, so I think when you combine the price with the implied run total, they should be relatively low owned. Good luck today!
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)