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Top SP: Shane Bieber, CLE ($10,800 DK, $12,000 FD) vs MIN
A 39.3% K-BB that’s really all there is to say. Yes, that’s K-BB%. What Shane Bieber is doing right now is simply absurd. Gerrit Cole is second on the board tonight with a 27.2% K-BB this season. OK, I lied, Tyler Chatwood is actually second at 29.2% K-BB if you want to ignore innings pitched. Anyways, the point is Bieber is so far ahead of his peers right now. Yes, the Twins are not our preferred matchup, but when one is pitching this well does it really matter? If you’re paying all the way up at pitcher tonight, the decision is pretty clear particularly on DraftKings where Bieber is averaging over ten total DK points more per game than Cole and yet is somehow only $200 more expensive. On FanDuel, Cole comes at more of a discount so there’s at least a discussion to be had there.
Lucas Giolito looked really sharp in his last outing, tallying thirteen strikeouts (35% CSW) in seven innings. Yes, some magic from the Tigers didn’t hurt, but the most exciting thing was we saw Giolito’s fastball velocity creep back up in this one as he routinely hit 95-96 mph. A matchup against the Pirates and their .281 team wOBA (second-worst) is certainly enticing if you want to save a little salary. Looking at the FTN Odds Page, the White Sox are currently the biggest favorite on the board at -243.
Value SP: Chris Paddack, SD ($7,800 DK, $8,900 FD) vs SEA
He has been fairly decent with a 16.4% K-BB% but so far we haven’t seen a big game yet from Chris Paddack. He gets the Mariners tonight at home and so far this year they’ve been a great matchup for opposing pitchers with an anemic .294 team wOBA (5th worst) and a 24.1% team K rate (11th worst). Paddack’s Padres are strong home favorites (-180) while the Mariners have one of the lowest implied team totals of the slate at well under four runs so it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the Sheriff spike a ceiling game here tonight.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Woodruff, MIL ($8,200 DK, $7,800 FD) vs CIN.
OF Ian Happ, CHC ($4,100 DK, $3,300 FD) at DET
The projections at FTN are fans of the Cubs today as they are currently pegged with an implied total of just under six runs. They’ll be facing Spencer Turnbull this evening who hasn’t been all that great with a 5.2% K-BB, putting him near the bottom of tonight’s list of probable starters. He does an excellent job at keeping the ball on the ground; nevertheless, there’s just too much value with Ian Happ here who has been leading off for the Cubs with Kris Bryant shelved. He’ll also be on the positive side of his platoon. On DraftKings, his teammate Kyle Schwarber is the exact same price and is a great play as well.
Honorable Mentions: Kyle Schwarber, OF ($4,100 DK, $2,700 FD) at DET; Franmil Reyes, OF ($4,700 DK, $3,200 FD) vs MIN; Luke Voit, 1B ($4,400 DK, $4,100 FD) at ATL; Paul Goldschmidt, 1B ($4,700 DK, $3,700 FD) vs KC.
OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS ($4,700 DK, $3,400 FD) vs PIT
The lefty Steven Brault is in two words, not good. Last season across 113.1 IP he posted a 5.16 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and a below-average 19.8% K rate. For his career, he’s allowed a .349 wOBA to RHB. Meanwhile, the White Sox will stack up a bunch of really talented right-handed hitters. Eloy Jimenez has some stellar batted ball data to his credit this season including a ridiculous 18.8% barrel rate and .413 xwOBA.
Honorable Mentions: Jose Abreu, 1B ($5,000 DK, $4,000 FD) vs PIT, Anthony Rizzo, 1B ($5,200 DK, $3,200 FD) at DET; Trevor Story, SS ($5,200 DK, $4,100 FD) at ARI; Matt Olson, 1B ($5,200 DK, $3,400 FD) at TEX; Jose Ramirez, 3B ($5,500 DK, $3,600 FD) vs. MIN.
Value Batter: OF Wil Myers, SD ($3,400 DK, $3,000 FD) vs SEA
After a down year in 2019, Wil Myers may be finding his groove as Dan Richards details here. So far, the batted ball results have been impressive for Myers, including a .408 xwOBA and a 17.2% barrel rate both marks being in the top 9% of the league. Now those results will probably tick down as we continue, but Myers looks like a legitimately improved player right now. Marco Gonzales has been very good this year, but as someone who doesn’t miss many bats (18.9% career K rate) he’s still not necessarily someone to completely shy away from especially with an upside bat like Myers at this cheap of a price.
Another value bat that stands out is Matt Carpenter. This is really all about the matchup. You may have missed it, but Matt Harvey is back in our lives. Well, by that I mean he’s back and ready to be stacked against until proven otherwise. Carpenter is cheap exposure to a Cardinals offense that shouldn’t have any problems hanging some crooked numbers on the board.
Honorable Mentions: Matt Carpenter, 3B ($3,600 DK, $2,900 FD) vs KC; Edwin Encarnacion, 1B ($3,800 DK, $2,800 FD) vs PIT; Kolten Wong, 2B ($3,300 DK, $2,700 FD) vs KC; Nick Solak, OF ($3,800 DK, $3,100 FD) vs OAK; Ramon Laureano, OF ($2,900 FD) at TEX; Leody Taveras, OF ($3,000 DK, $2,000 FD) vs OAK; Dylan Carlson, OF ($2,600 DK, $2,300 FD).
Rich Hill has not looked like himself at all lately with his fastball velocity down noticeably. In his last start against the Brewers he didn’t get a single swing and miss off of his curve ball. The Indians are certainly worth a look in tournaments assuming he doesn’t turn it around.
Last year the Dark Knight amassed a 7.09 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and a 3.8% K-BB% with the Angels. It wouldn’t be surprising in the least bit to see the Cardinals stack up some runs. Dylan Carlson is really cheap on both sites.
The Cubs trip to Detroit continues this time a date with Spencer Turnbull who has not made it out of the fifth inning in his past two turns.
Aaron Judge is set to return tonight, barring any setbacks. He instantly adds upside to a Yankee lineup that heads to Atlanta whose starter remains TBD. Though, there are rumors of a potential Ian Anderson sighting. If that is the case, this will be a tough assignment, you know how these rookie debuts can go.
For tonight’s stack we’ll go with the White Sox. Its just too hard to fathom Steven Brault’s ratios surviving this lineup that’s loaded with righty power. And there’s a not so good Pirates pen lurking behind him too. In addition to Eloy, there is Tim Anderson leading off and Jose Abreu (.405 xwOBA this season) hitting third, whose OPS currently sits at 1.035. With Anderson returning from injury, Luis Robert (.366 xwOBA, 18.6% barrel rate) has been bumped down to the sixth and seventh spot in the order, not ideal of course, but it makes him a fantastic tournament target. The switch-hitters Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal are weaker as righties, but they’ve got plenty of power upside too and they could easily get flipped around if Brault gets chased early. Its hard to go wrong here top to bottom the White Sox are a very strong lineup with a ton of upside.
Honorable Mentions: STL vs KC (Harvey); CLE vs MIN (Hill); CHC at DET (Turnbull); NYY at ATL (TBD).
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