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Top SP: Zac Gallen, ARI ($9,600 DK, $10,000 FD) at SF
Zac Gallen leads the way at pitcher tonight with a 23.5% K-BB% so far in 2020. Second on the board? Zach Davies with an 18.1% mark followed by Kyle Hendricks at 17.3%. Neither of those guys though comes close to Gallen’s 30.3% K rate. This year through his first five starts, Gallen has also managed to cut his walk rate to 6.7% from 10.8% last season. He’ll get the Giants this evening, an offense that so far has been just about middle of the pack, ranking 17th in team wOBA at .318 and 25th in K rate at 21.8%.
Hendricks, although he doesn’t have the pitch count upside of Gallen, is certainly an option if you’re looking to save a little salary at the top. The White Sox are a powerful offense but they do strike out quite a bit at 25.2% as a team, which is eighth-worst in baseabll
Based on what we’ve seen so far from Zach Wheeler, namely an exceedingly low 12% K rate, it’s next to impossible to justify his price tag right now, especially on DraftKings where he costs more than Gallen.
Dustin May features dazzling velocity on his fastball, but the lack of a secondary pitch that gets whiffs has capped his strikeout upside. He does get the Rockies though and that’s an offense we’ve liked to pick on in the past when they’re on the road. That trend hasn’t been any different this year, with Colorado having the lowest road wOBA of any team at .270. Having stretched out his pitch count to 88 his last time out, May is definitely an option in tournaments.
Honorable Mentions: Kyle Hendricks, CHC ($8,800 DK, $8,700 FD) vs CWS; Dustin May, LAD ($9,100 DK, $7,000 FD) vs COL.
Value SP: Justus Sheffield, SEA ($6,500 DK, $7,500 FD) vs TEX
This is more of a matchup play than anything else because the Mariners are a home favorite tonight. Justus Sheffield has been decent so far with 13.1% K-BB rate, 4.12 ERA, and 1.27 WHIP. Or maybe it would be better to say an improvement from last year, with his walk rate moving from 10.7% to 8.3%. Sheffield hasn’t really shown huge bat-missing ability. In his last start, against the Astros, he managed just four whiffs. Fortunately though he gets the Rangers, who have been a very weak offense with a .288 team wOBA so far, fourth-worst in the league. Last season the Rangers really struggled against lefty pitching with a 25.5% team K rate, third-worst in the majors.
Triston McKenzie, the 42nd overall pick in the 2015 Draft, will be making his debut tonight for the Indians. McKenzie hasn’t pitched in a competitive game since the second half of the 2018 season so there’s a ton of risk here, but if you’re looking to completely punt your second SP in a tournament, he’s worth a look. It’s hard to ask for a better debut spot than at home against the Tigers and their league-worst 28.2% team K rate. He’s gotten his pitch count up to around 85 pitches at the Indian’s alternate site where he’s been pitching since Spring Training opened again in July.
Honorable Mention: Triston McKenzie, CLE ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD) vs DET.
OF Kyle Schwarber, CHC ($4,000 DK, $2,700 FD) vs CWS
The price one Kyle Schwarber is great on DraftKings and just silly on FanDuel. We should look to take advantage of it. Reynaldo Lopez will be making his return from the IL. Lopez has only gotten two outs this year but going back to last season we’ve got plenty of evidence to show that he was a well-below average starting pitcher: a 5.38 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 12.9% K-BB%, all while giving up a lot of fly balls. We know Schwarber murders right-handed pitching. And the wind might just be blowing out.
Honorable Mentions: Anthony Rizzo, 1B ($4,900 DK, $3,400 FD) vs CWS; Franmil Reyes, OF ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD) vs DET; Max Kepler, OF ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD) at KC; Ketel Marte, 2B ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD) at SF.
3B Rafael Devers, BOS ($5,300 DK, $2,700 FD) at BAL
Rafael Devers crushed right-handed pitching last season, overall a .407 wOBA, and .330 batting average. He’ll get a chance tonight against the righty Alex Cobb at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Cobb has pitched well but a below-average 18.6% K rate and .376 xwOBA add some suspicion here. Despite the awful start to the season, Devers’ price on FanDuel just seems criminally low.
Honorable Mentions: J.D. Martinez, OF ($5,800 DK, $3,400 FD) at BAL; Fernando Tatis Jr, SS ($5,400 DK, $4,700 FD) vs HOU; Justin Turner, 3B ($5,000 DK, $3,100 FD) vs COL; Nelson Cruz, OF ($5,700 DK, $4,100 FD) at KC; Bryce Harper, OF ($6,100 DK, $4,400) at ATL.
Value Batter: OF Trent Grisham, SD ($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD) vs HOU
Some of the Padres bats project really well today over on the DFS lineup optimizer, as they get one of the more susceptible pitchers of the evening in the rookie Brandon Bielak. The surface ratios for Bielak are great but the underlying numbers are highly suspect. First, a 1.6% K-BB%, that’s not good! Bielak’s K rate sits at 14.6% through his first five appearances, not great. Couple that with a double-digit walk rate and there’s trouble brewing. A 98.6% LOB%, yeah you know that has to come down. Trent Grisham has done an excellent job as the Padres table-setter, rocking a .362 OBP on the back of a 15.4% walk rate. He’ll be on the positive side of the platoon here against the righty Bielak. His teammate, the lefty-swinging Jake Cronenworth has been getting no respect on either major site and is another fantastic value. Same with Wil Myers, who is only $3,500 on DraftKings. Hey, why not stack the Padres for value?
Reynaldo Lopez should be returning, as mentioned above. If that’s the case, Ian Happ is a fantastic play, especially on DraftKings. He’ll be on the positive side of his platoon split and has been leading off of late with Kris Bryant ailing.
There are quite a few good value bats tonight but one last one worth mentioning is Kyle Seager. He’s been enjoying a resurgent season (.397 xwOBA) and is priced particularly well on DraftKings. The Mariners get one of the best matchups of the night in Jordan Lyles ,who is currently walking just as many as he’s striking out and is not missing any bats at all with a barely-there 5.4% swinging K rate.
Honorable Mentions: Eric Hosmer, 1B ($3,600 DK) vs HOU; Ian Happ, OF ($3,300 DK, $3,300 FD) vs CWS; Eddie Rosario, OF ($3,900 DK) at KC; Kyle Schwarber, OF ($2,700 FD) vs CWS; Andrew McCutchen, OF ($2,400 FD) at ATL; Rafael Devers, 3B ($2,800 FD) at BAL; Jake Cronenworth, 2B ($2,800 DK, $2,600 FD) vs HOU; Will Myers, OF ($3,500 DK, $2,900 FD); Kyle Seager, 3B ($3,500 DK) vs TEX.
Lineup Stack: Cubs vs White Sox (RHP Reynaldo Lopez)
Looking at the DFS projections at FTN points us right to the Dodgers as they’ve got the highest implied team total at just under six runs. Evidently, they aren’t buying the Kyle Freeland resurgence tour. Freeland isn’t a strikeout guy but to his credit, he’s done what looks to be a legitimately good job limiting hard contact so far this season as his xwOBA sits at an excellent .306 and an xBA of .268 is very convincing as well. We know what the Dodgers offense is capable of but considering what Freeland has been able to do so far this season it wouldn’t be surprising if Dodgers stacks are stifled tonight.
As mentioned earlier the Cubs should be getting matched up with the righty Reynaldo Lopez who is returning from a shoulder injury. Lopez was rough last year to put it nicely while allowing a .364 wOBA against lefties last year so Schwarber, Happ, and Anthony Rizzo project really well. Meanwhile, Willson Contreras has hit the ball exceedingly hard this year with a .393 xwOBA. The weather at Wrigley could also add to the potential upside here too.
Honorable Mentions: MIN at KC (Singer); LAD vs COL (Freeland); BOS at BAL (Cobb); PHI at ATL (Erlin).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)